Pick-Up Sports Talk: Cleveland

Crunch-Time Break Down: Classic Edition- Game 6, 2015 ALCS Blue Jays vs. Royals

With no professional team sports being played on the North American continent right now, many have turned to classic games as a refuge to help distract them from the very difficult real world problems that we are dealing with as a sports-loving people. I am no different in this and as the time approaches where I hoped to be able to do either a Crunch-Time Breakdown or a Sports Cliff Notes of something like an NBA Conference Finals or an MLB regular season game, that obviously won’t be happening.

Hopefully a classic game can once again be a good substitute. In my choosing I decided to go with a Game 6 of a fairly recent MLB playoffs and a game that was close throughout, but I didn’t have much memory of. We will be perusing Game 6 of the 2015 American League Championship Series between the Toronto Blue Jays and hosting Kansas City Royals.

The Set-Up

Kansas City arrives home for Game 6 up 3 games to 2 in the series. The Royals had taken an easy 2-0 lead at home in the first two games through the help of adequate starting pitching and an absolutely lock-down bullpen that became the prototype for successful bullpens throughout the league in future seasons. Toronto won Game 3 at home but was absolutely demolished in Game 4, 14-2, behind home runs by RF Alex Rios and 2B Ben Zobrist. The Royals looked ready to take the series after such a Game 4 shellacking. but the Blue Jays re-grouped and scored 5 runs off Royals Game 5 started Edinson Volquez. SS Troy Tulowitzki’s 2 hits and 3 RBI stood out as the Blue Jays sent the series back to KC, 7-1 was the final.

That brings us to the game in question. Game 6. Toronto starts the ace they have rented since the trade deadline, David Price. Kansas City starts the young, fiery, vibrant and sadly no longer with us, Yordano Ventura.

Price looks shaky early. He allows a solo homer in the 1^st to former Tampa teammate Zobrist and another to Royals 3B Mike Moustakas in the 2^nd. Conversely, Ventura comes out confident and guns blazing. After allowing a double to leadoff man Ben Revere in the first, he sets down ten Blue Jays in a row.

After the Moustakas blast, Price makes an adjustment and begins relying on his curveball more. The move pays off and he strikes out four batters in a row in the 4^th and 5^th innings and cruises deep into the middle innings, actually outlasting Ventura in this game after seeming unstable early.

Ventura has his streak of ten straight set down snapped by Toronto RF Jose Bautista’s solo home run in the 4^th. One of the better sluggers of his time, its Bautista’s first homer of the series. From there, Ventura appears on the brink of unraveling for the rest of his outing. With his emotions on his sleeve, he stares down Tulowitzki after punching him out to end the top of the 4^th then walks the first two batters of the 5^th before Moustakas bails him out with a diving catch of a Josh Donaldson line drive at 3^rd to end the frame.

However, Royals manager Ned Yost felt he needed just 5 innings from his starter and he gets them with a 2-1 lead intact. A 1-out double by Blue Jays DH Edwin Encarnacion chases Ventura from the game in the 6^th but the threat doesn’t come to pass as reliever Kelvin Herrera puts out the potential fire before it starts to blaze.

We pick up the action for our crunch-time breakdown in the top of the 7^th. I’m embedding the YouTube video of the game below and I will provide timestamps for the action I describe so you can follow along. Feel free to watch the whole game if you are missing baseball and feel the need. It is what I did, and I enjoyed every minute. Being able to skip commercial breaks is a god-send. Without further delay though, enjoy!

7^th Inning

The Royals stick with Herrera in the 7^th(2:13:40). He’s the workhorse of their bullpen in this series, pitching more than any other reliever and doing so without allowing a single run. He sets the Blue Jays down in order, the only notable occurrence being bad body language from Blue Jays catcher Russell Martin as he flies out to start the frame. This act is a carryover from how he reacted when nearly colliding with teammate 3B Josh Donaldson while trying to catch a pop-up to end the previous half inning (2:10:20).
Price returns for the bottom of the 7^thand allows a lead off single to Moustakas the at bats following the single are a pivotal point in this game (2:26:10).
Royals catcher Salvador Perez smashes a deep drive to left that the nifty-fielding Revere leaps for and catches against the wall. He collects himself and rifles the ball back into the cutoff man. They nearly double up Moustakas in the process if only first baseman Chris Colabello is able to squeeze the return throw to the base. The play is quite the swing of emtions. If Revere doesn’t make a phenomenal play then Perez has a double and Moustakas probably scores. If Colabello holds onto the throw at first there would be 2 outs and no one on. Instead the outcome is somewhere in the middle. 1 out, and a man still on first.
(2:30:54) Royals LF Alex Gordon then hits a hard grounder to second baseman Ryans Goins’s left that he fields with a dive. His only play is to first. Moustakas advances to second, but there are now 2 outs.
Price is removed after this third hard hit balls in the inning. He nearly makes it through the order 3 full times and on the 3^rd time through the Royals only go 1 for 8.
(2:35:54) Aaron Sanchez enters in relief, one of the few relievers Toronto manager John Gibbons trusts. He hasn’t allowed a run in the playoffs but immediately allows a rocket of a single to left to 9-hitter Alex Rios. For all the defensive effort in the inning, Moustakas still scores. 3-1 Royals. Insurance run acheived.
Removing Price is dubious in my eyes. Like I said, the Royals were 1 for 8 the 3^rd time through their order and Rios was the 9-hitter. The other side of the coin is that Rios had hit the ball well in his last at bat and according to the broadcast had good historical numbers against Price. Was it the right call? That’s hard to judge, but the truth is that Sanchez immediately allows the inherited runner to score.
The inning ends however, without further damage, but during a mound visit the broadcast accidentally shows a graphic promoting Game 1 of the World Series between the Royals and Mets, even though the Royals obviously haven’t won yet (2:40:47). Earlier in the inning, broadcaster Joe Buck had slipped up and said this was going to be soon to be free agent David Price’s last time in a Toronto uniform (2:32:53). Signs that the fix is in?! Hardly. I hate people that claim sports are fixed. Its still funny though.

8^th Inning

Ryan Madson relieves Herrera in the top of the 8^th and immediately allows a slap infield single to the left side against Revere (2:46:55). Sure, its a 3-1 lead, but the tying run now comes to the plate in the forms of Toronto’s top sluggers Donaldson (the AL MVP), Bautista and Encarnacion (the three of them combined for 120 HRs that season) again with no one out. Wade Davis, the Royals lockdown closer is warming in the pen. The broadcast repeatedly suggests going to Davis. Yost sticks with Madson.
Madson locks up Donaldson with a 97-mph 2-seamer for strike three (2:48:10). But up comes Bautista who picks out a fastball at the top of the zone and smashes it over the left-field fence for his 2^nd homer of the game (2:49:15). We are tied. Bautista hit a heck of a pitch. 96 mph and at the top of the zone, but you can see Perez wanted the ball down and away. No such luck.
The broadcast is critical of Yost for sticking with Madson. I think its silly. Madson had allowed a mere infield single and then blew away Donaldson. If you’re that jumpy to get your closer in the game, then just bring him in to start the 8^th. If not, then let your qualified set up man try to do his job. It just didn’t work out. Once again, its 3-3.
I would have gone away from Madson after the homer though. Yost stays with him to face Encarnacion who walks (2:51:50). THEN Yost brings in Davis.
Davis gets Colabello to pop up but a wild pitch with Tulowitzki at the plate sends Encarnacion to 2^nd(2:57:40). Davis is behind 2-0 to a very good hitter with the go-ahead run on 2^nd and the struggling Russell Martin on deck. Rather than walk Tulo, he battles back from a 3-1 count and strikes him out with heat on the outside corner. Great perseverance by Wade Davis, the tie is at least preserved.
Rain had been in the forecast all night, and it finally comes. Between half innings the tarp is laid out and the game is delayed. Its a 40 minute delay in all and the suspense builds. As the tarp comes off it is 3-3 and we are entering the bottom of the 8^th. During the delay Toronto manager John Gibbons is interviewed (3:06:10). He’s very straight forward in his answers including his mention of his desperation for bullpen help. He hopes the delay is short so he could allow Sanchez to continue to pitch. It isn’t. Instead he relies on closer Roberto Osuna (insert booing) upon our return.
Royals CF Lorenzo Cain leads off and puts up an great at bat (3:46:40). He sees 8 pitches and ultimately works a walk on a full count, laying off a good slider down low. Remember, we are coming right off a rain delay and Osuna is a closer at the top of his game. It would have been all too easy to not be focused enough to put up the at bat that Cain does.
The amazing then happens. If you only want to watch one sequence of this game, then pick this one (3:52:00). 1B and clean-up hitter Eric Hosmer singles on a line drive down the line to right. Bautista does a great job of cutting the ball off (with a bum ankle no less, we learn that in the Gibbons interview too) before it gets to the wall and holds Hosmer to a single. He also fires a strike to the infield, but there is confusion. Goins is lined up wrongly for the cutoff throw so Bautista gets the ball into Tulowitzki at 2^nd base. This confusion doesn’t just allow the smart and speedy Cain to go from first to third, but he comes all the way around and scores on a single due to incredibly heads-up baserunning. The Royals steal the lead away, 4-3.
Let me say that again, Cain scores from first on a freaking single! In the 8^th inning of an elimination game! How is this play never mentioned or brought up ever? It was incredibly clutch and I completely forgot that it existed. If Derek Jeter or David Ortiz had done what Lorenzo Cain did, this play would already have its own statue at Cooperstown and national broadcasts would mention it every time any runner ever goes from first to third. Cain manufactured this run all by himself.
(3:54:00) Turns out though that Cain would’ve scored anyway. DH Kendrys Morales singles as the next batter and the threat of a rally is on with men on first and second and still no one out, but Osuna settles down and gets Moustakas to pop out (3:57:30) and Perez to hit into a double play (3:59:10). The damage is minimized, but the Blue Jays must score to keep their season alive.

9^th Inning

Due to the rain delay, Royals closer Wade Davis hasn’t pitched in over an hour, but he’s back out on the mound and facing the bottom third of the Toronto order, looking to clinch a trip to the World Series for Kansas City.
I am surprised Gibbons doesn’t pitch hit for Martin, who hasn’t gotten a hit to this point in the series, but it pays off that he bats. Martin singles to center to start the ninth (4:03:00). Dalton Pompey pinch runs for him and not only steals 2^nd base (4:04:00) but also 3^rd(4:07:05). The usually speedy Royals are suddenly being victimized by their own game. The tying run is on 3^rd and there’s no one out.
This all happens with Kevin Pillar at the plate, who ultimately walks (4:08:10). It looks like a mistake to bring Davis back out. With men on the corners and no one out, the Blue Jays desperately need to just put the ball in play. They have Dioner Navarro pinch hit for Goins. Navarro’s K rate is 15%, 9 percent better than Goins’s 24%. Pillar steals second and brings the go-ahead run into scoring position, but Navarro strikes out in the process (4:10:58). 1 out.
Revere comes up and immediately gets ahead 2-0 in the count. A strike follows and then a VERY questionable fastball up and away that also gets called a strike (you be the judge, 4:13:10). Revere also fails to just put the ball in play. He strikes out on a 2-2 slider. He’s beside himself, probably both for the bad 2-1 strike call and for not executing. 2 down. The tying and go-ahead runs are still in scoring position.
Davis still has to face AL MVP Josh Donaldson. Royals legend George Brett checks his heart rate and pulse from one of the suites in the ballpark. But the drama turns out to be no matter (4:16:10). Donaldson grounds one to Moustakas. The opportunity to score by just putting the ball in play has come to pass. Mous fires across the diamond to Hosmer and the Royals are going to the World Series. 4-3 is our final.

Final Thoughts

Toronto goes 0 for 12 with Runners in Scoring Position for the game. That, along with the controversy involved in Moustakas’s homer in the 2^nd which was reviewed and upheld, Toronto’s inability to double-up Moustakas on the phenomenal play Revere made at the wall in left, and Cain’s incredible base-running are the keys to this game. The Royals simply executed better than the Blue Jays, despite the great efforts of David Price, who would leave in the off-season for Boston.

Speaking of pitching, the game misses Yordano Ventura. I had forgotten how fun it was to watch his personality play baseball. I loved his competitive spirit in this game, even if he hadn’t entirely harnessed it yet. What a shame that he was never able to have the opportunity to meet his potential.

I only vaguely remembered little parts of this game from back in 2015, and I can’t understand why. In a way I’m thankful now because I was riveted throughout. This game is now an instant classic to me. I consider the Royals a division rival and I still found it great. Why I don’t hear about this game more and especially Cain’s base-running, is beyond me.

I thought for sure the Royals style of play was going to be the wave of the future. With teams resorting to the shift more and more I thought for sure the counter-move would be to put the ball in play and wreak havoc on the shift with speed and good base-running. It turns out I was completely wrong. Teams just try to hit the ball over the fence along with the shift. What did get preserved from this Royals team though was their bullpen, who’s only runs allowed in the series came on the 2-run bomb Madson allowed to Bautista.

This game reminds me of a time not too long ago, but long ago enough for me to be nostalgic. The game was played slightly differently and there were enough names that are now gone or in different places that it made me smile to remember (in fact, I don’t think a single one of the players I mentioned one either side is still with one of these teams). I will leave you with this, take the time some time to pick out a game you wouldn’t normal think about from sports history and give it a shot. If you haven’t done this yet, you might find yourself pleasantly surprised with how much the simple pleasure of the memories might bring.

Breaking News: It’s 1996 and the Indians Have Traded Albert Belle

Mookie Betts may never play for the Los Angeles Dodgers. The 27-year old right-fielder was traded from the Boston Red Sox to the Dodgers this past winter along with David Price for a bevy of young talent, despite being the 2018 American League Most Valuable Player, a four-time Gold Glove and three time Silver Slugger winner. Betts hit .346 in his MVP season and slugged .640, both figures led the league. And yet, the Red Sox shipped him off.

Because free agency is approaching. Betts hits the open market this coming off-season and the Red Sox, with eight of their top ten WAR earners in 2019 gradually reaching arbitration and free agency in the coming years, decided that saving their money to spread it around to many lesser talents was more important than handing most of it to just one talent. So due to that and a lack of interest in getting deeper into the luxury tax, off Betts went. Time will tell if the move was savvy, but this kind of operation out of a Major League front office is becoming less and less of a faux pas.

In 2016, the Red Sox benefited from the other end of one of these trades when they received White Sox ace Chris Sale for a number of prospects including infielder Yoan Moncada. Sale led baseball in innings pitched and strikeouts in 2017 and closed out the final outs of the 2018 World Series for the Red Sox, his 15.1 playoff innings that year helping them reach the baseball summit. Obviously, I’d say the Red Sox did well.

However, sometimes the team receiving prospects really benefits from these deals too. For one, Moncada looks like he could be a potential star for the White Sox. Another example of prospect success is the 2016 trade where the New York Yankees traded closer Aroldis Chapman to the Chicago Cubs for three players including Gleyber Torres, who looks like their shortstop for the next decade. Ironically, Chapman also had a hand in the Cubs first championship in over 100 years. It’s not like they regret sending Torres away, but there is a precedent here. Selling off a valuable player that is about to cash in on his value can be a great way to acquire new young talent.

We know this now, but we only began to become so enlightened about a dozen years ago. I can speak as a Cleveland Indians fan who watched his team trade Cy Young Award winners away in back to back seasons (CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee, ’08 and ’09 respectively) as they were about to hit the open market. The Indians, who have been an inventive and innovative baseball factory since Hank Peters began a baseball tree that has now run through John Hart, Mark Shaprio, Chris Antonneti and Mike Chernoff (just in house, there have been other General Managers that have forged their own path elsewhere that have come from this tree) were absolutely lambasted locally for making both of those deals. Fans hated them and hated Shapiro, the GM of the time, for making them. They were called cheap and gutless. How could they possibly compete while trading Cy Young Award winners away in back to back seasons? The 2008 trade of CC Sabathia ultimately yielded Michael Brantley (among others including bust Matt LaPorta, to be fair), who while no longer an Indian, I would consider to this day one of the best pure hitters in the game. The 2009 trade of Cliff Lee yielded starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco, poised to make his return from cancer this year with five of his previous six seasons for the Indians sporting an ERA of 3.30 or less. Sabathia and Lee were both great after departing the Tribe, but in the long run the moves were justifiable.

At least for the Indians and their fans though, those moves were earth-shattering. They were the an early example of selling high on your biggest stars and making sure you get something for them in case they depart for more lucrative pastures. For much of the decade previous to those trades the Indians learned the hard way, losing Hall of Fame slugger Jim Thome, would-be Hall of Fame slugger if he didn’t use steroids Manny Ramirez and should-be Hall of Fame defensive maestro Omar Vizquel in free agency. However, the Indians did perform a trade like this in 2002. It was the one that really proved this school of thought when they received prospects Lee, Grady Sizemore, and Brandon Phillips for their ace at the time, Bartolo Colon. Before that the only thing resembling a Betts/Sale/Sabathia type deal the Indians performed during their 1990s run of dominance was the 1997 trade of Kenny Lofton where they received not prospects but 2 very qualified Major Leaguers in outfielders David Justice and Marquis Grissom. That ’97 team made the World Series. Justice in particular had multiple productive seasons for the Indians and Lofton even actually ended up returning in free agency in 1998. John Hart made a great trade. He made a trade on the brink of this idea, but not exactly the expiring star for prospects type deals that his disciples would eventually make.

That is why we are here. I want to implant new-school baseball thought into the head of 1990s John Hart. As the 1996 season approached the Indians were coming off of a World Series appearance where they lost in six games to the Atlanta Braves. They came into ’96 with an incredibly deep lineup that included Lofton, Vizquel, Ramirez, Thome, and another Hall of Famer in Eddie Murray among other talents. Their triple-A squad in Buffalo would be home to outfielders Brian Giles and Jeromy Burnitz, both future All-Stars in their own right.

And manning left-field for the 1996 season would be Albert Belle. Intense, studious, relentlessly competitive in the batter’s box and equally vicious to pitchers and fans or reports that rubbed him the wrong way, Belle would hit .317 in 1995 along with 50 dingers in a season that was shortened by 18 games due to the player’s strike. He led the American League in doubles, homers, RBI and slugging percentage. He is the only player to ever hit 50 doubles and 50 home runs in the same season. And he was one year away from free agency, intent to receive the most lucrative contract in baseball history at the time.

What a perfect opportunity to sell high if you’re a GM from 2020 trapped in John Hart’s 1996 body. So that’s right. I am going to try to trade Albert Belle in 1996 for prospects… twenty-four years after the fact.

I obviously have the benefit of hind-sight. I know who will be good in the future and who won’t. I will try not to use that to my advantage. A trade like this was unprecedented in 1996 and even more so when you consider the position the Indians were in. Its hard to find historical comparison for it so I will do my best to cobble together a fair trade. Allow me to walk you through the process.

First, it takes two to tango. I need to find a trade partner. I scoured Baseball-Reference.com’s 1996 transaction log for activity that would suggest interest in a player of Belle’s skill and pay rate. Namely, I looked for trades that were performed before and during that season that included star players or noteworthy power-hitting outfielders. Two deals jumped out at me.

At the 1996 trade deadline the Milwaukee Brewers traded LF Greg Vaughn and a player to be named later to the San Diego Padres for relief pitcher Bryce Florie, outfielder Marc Newfield and left-handed pitcher Ron Villone.

The Padres, looking to make a playoff push, bolstered the middle of their order by adding Vaughn. He hit fourth or fifth 19 times each for the Padres down the stretch while playing left-field replacing the all-time great but aging Rickey Henderson. He would hit only .201 for the Padres in ’96 but would smash 10 homers in 43 games. He played two more seasons for the Padres and finished 4^th in MVP voting for them in 1998. He made $5.9 million in 1996 and the Padres were committed for 2 more seasons. Belle was paid $5.7 million in 1996 and later committed to 2 seasons in free agency with the White Sox. Financially, there are similarities there.

In this new world I am creating, rather than sign Henderson to a 2-year deal at about $3.1 million per year before the 1996 season, the Padres have decided to pool that money plus the $5.9 million they would need in order to cover Vaughn and will use it to trade for Belle and pay his salary. In terms of fit, they have an obvious need. They have a recognizable hole in left-field as without signing Henderson they are left with 1995 holdover Melvin Nieves to play the position. He hit .205 in 98 games that previous season. Bip Roberts was another left-field possibility until the speedy utility man was traded in a separate deal to Kansas City on December 21^st. Making that deal confirms their need to trade for Belle. It will help put them over the top in the NL West. It will be a feather in the cap of new GM Kevin Towers.

So what does this deal look like?

Padres receive: LF Albert Belle

Indians receive: SP, Marc Kroon OF Marc Newfield, RP Bryce Florie, CF Earl Johnson

The one thing the Indians always lacked in those ’90s playoff runs was a front of the line ace starting pitcher. My goal in this exercise was to trade for one, plus other supplementing young players. Unfortunately I have had to settle a little in this trade. The Padres’ top pitching prospect according to Baseball America in both 1995 and 1996 was Dustin Hermanson, a man who inexplicably only relieved in professional baseball until he exclusively started for the Montreal Expos in 1997. Even as the 3^rd overall pick in 1994 and the 18^th best prospect in all of baseball in 1995, his lack of starting credentials aren’t what I am looking for.

The next best choice was the number 69 overall prospect in 1995, Marc Kroon. Kroon was a 2^nd round pick of the New York Mets in 1991 and traded to the Padres in 1993 in a exclusively minor league deal. His numbers weren’t staggering, but a 3.51 ERA at the AA level in 1995 was a marked improvement and at the age of 22 he still seemed to have time to improve coming into ’96. The Padres however seem to disagree with me as in real life he was relegated to the bullpen in 1996, once again at the AA level. Having fallen out of favor with the San Diego front office would mean he is expendable for our trade.

The next two pieces, Newfield and Florie were part of the Brewers-Padres deal that actually happened and landed Vaughn for the Padres.

Newfield hit .295 with an .812 OPS in 73 games at AAA for the Padres and Mariners (he had been traded to the Padres mid-season) in 1995 and actually earned himself a call-up to the show, spending time in the Majors for both teams. He only hit a combined .236 with 4 homers in the big leagues, but at only 22 there was reason to believe in his talent.

Florie is an example of bullpen depth, something Hart personally always seemed to love to trade for, whether it was Alvin Morman, Steve Reed or Ricardo Rincon. Still, he was a legit relief pitcher for the Padres in 1995 on a team that had depth at that role. Coming off his first full season in, he pitched 68.2 Major League innings and earned a 3.01 ERA in the process, good for a 135 ERA+. A capable sinker-baller, there is reason to believe he could have been plugged into the Indians bullpen in 1996 immediately.

Johnson was a speedy center-fielder who swiped 85 bases in A ball in 1994. While he was a light hitter, with one career professional home run going into the 1996 season, there was reason to consider that the Indians could mold him like they molded the very raw Kenny Lofton from University of Arizona basketball player to Major League All-Star. Further, don’t forget Lofton is 2 seasons from free agency himself. There is a potential void to be filled here. Johnson hit .293 in 81 games at High A in 1995. He wasn’t a complete lost cause and I deem worthy of a look.

The benefit of hind-sight however tells us that this trade is ultimately a lost cause.

Kroon pitched 26.2 Major League innings in his career and none of them ever came in a start. He went five years between big league opportunities between 1998 and 2004, and never caught on in the Majors.

Newfield actually played a lot in ’96 for the Padres and Brewers, scoring an ever-so-slightly better than average 101 OPS+ in 1996 but he never really performed even that well ever again. His baseball career was over by the turn of the millenium.

Florie would never again pitch as well as he did in 1995, but is actually the highlight of the Indians return in this trade. He would pitch six more seasons in the Majors and post an ERA+ of better than 100 in four of them though he would be traded twice more in his career.

Johnson would never get the chance to face big league pitching due to an inability to hit at the AA and AAA level. Both of his batting averages at those levels were below .250 at a time when such a figure just wouldn’t fly, especially for a speedster.

This is however just one of two trade possibilities that I have come up with. I started this exercise by scouring the 1996 transaction log for trades that would seem similar to a deal for Albert Belle. The Padres have created one opportunity, however the baseball’s evil empire, the New York Yankees created the other.

On December 7^th, 1995 the New York Yankees, trying to fill a void left by the retiring Don Mattingly, traded third base prospect Russ Davis and left-handed pitcher Sterling Hitchcock to the Seattle Mariners first baseman Tino Martinez as well as relief pitchers Jim Mecir and Jeff Nelson. Martinez would bat 5^th, and hit .292 with 25 homers in 1996 for the Bombers. He would collect just $2.3 million that season compared to Belle’s $5.7 million, but that number would graduate into the $4.5 million range over the following five seasons, showing an ability for the Yankees to splurge. This ability to spend is further emphasized by the nearly $10 million the Yankees were willing to commit to starting pitchers David Cone and Kenny Rogers in the same ’96 off-season.

The Yankees also had a need in left-field coming into the 1996 season. Gerald Williams played the most real-life games for the Yankees in left in both 1995 and 1996, but he never played over 100 games in either season due to both injuries and poor performance, especially in the latter year. New York also had a need for a clean-up hitter. Real-life trade deadline addition first baseman/DH Cecil Fielder hit in the clean up spot more than any other Yankees hitter in 1996, suggesting a need for someone to fill the four hole on Opening Day. Who better to fill it than Albert Belle?

So the Yankees, without and every day left-fielder or clean-up batter, and with the backing of the biggest market in the country and money to blow going into the 1996 off-season are a prime candidate to take on Albert Belle. But what do the Indians receive in return?

New York Yankees receive: LF Albert Belle

Cleveland Indians receive: SP Matt Drews, C Jorge Posada, RP Dave Pavlas, IF Kevin Riggs

Now, there is one name in that list of players that will jump out at you, and I promise we will get there. But, once again the main goal of this exercise was to try to bring a future ace to the ’90s Indians. I had considered targeting Ramiro Mendoza, who ended up making 11 starts at the age of 24 for the Yankees in ’96, as the headline prospect here, but decided against it. In order to make this trade I thought it was only fair to alleviate some of the financial burden of bringing Belle to the Yankees by deciding it would mean they would not sign Kenny Rogers. Without Rogers, the Yankee rotation isn’t nearly as deep and Mendoza becomes a much more important cog there aren’t willing to part with.

Drews, on the other hand, was taken 13^th overall in the 1993 MLB Draft and by 1996 was the Yankees best pitching prospect, ranked 12^th overall by Baseball America. He was a control specialist who posted a 2.27 ERA in high A ball in 1995. In the winter between the 1995 and 1996 seasons he would make an ideal return for the type of trade that I want.

Okay, now let’s get to the name that obviously sticks out twenty-four years later.

Minor league catcher Jorge Posada was a 43^rd round pick for the Yankees in 1989 that just kept improving and worked his way into the Majors for a incredibly brief one game cup of coffee in 1995 that didn’t even include an at bat. While not being an overwhelming prospect, Posada showed some ability as an offensive catcher in the minors, nearly skipping AA entirely before playing parts of three seasons at AAA. Additionally, Posada was on the block in real life during the off-season in question, made available in both the trade talks for Martinez as well as Cincinnati pitcher David Wells.

From the Indians’ perspective, catcher Sandy Alomar Jr. was incredibly capable, but often injured, having not played 90 games or more since 1990. His back-up Tony Pena was 39 years old in 1996 and in his last season with the Tribe. Posada, who wouldn’t really take on full-time catching duties for the Yankees until 1999 anyways, could spend most of the 1996 season at AAA for the Indians, much like he did for the Yanks and could become Alomar’s backup in ’97. If a log jam really appeared, he could always be traded.

Pavlas is a lottery-ticket addition based on Hart’s aforementioned penchant for trading for relief pitching. He was a journeyman minor leaguer that actually was out of American professional baseball for several years but pitched well for the Yankees both in AAA and the Majors in 1995. The Indians can always use bullpen depth. I decided to tack him on.

Additionally, Riggs hit .330 (with an OBP of .479!) in 238 plate appearances at AA in 1995 as a utility player. He may be minor league depth, as he was at the advanced age of 27 going into 1996, but might have been worthy of a look in a time where we didn’t know he would never rise above AA. He did however play for the Indians AA affiliate in 1997, suggesting the Indians would have interest in his inclusion.

The outcome of this trade, while ultimately better for the Tribe than my Padres proposal, is ironically acceptable on accident. The main target of the deal, a future ace starting pitcher, never comes to fruition. Drews would go on to post a 5.12 career ERA in AA ball and 7.51 career ERA in AAA. The highly-touted prospect would never make the Majors.

Pavlas would pitch in 16 games for the Yankees in 1996, and pitch quite well actually. He’d throw 23 innings, have an ERA of 2.35 and even collect a save. John Hart would love this guy! Maybe he’d pitch effectively in the Indians pen in ’96 as well, still he this would be his last pro season.

Riggs would be released by the Yankees after hitting .290 for them in 1996 and as I said before, the Indians would give him a look in ’97. There’s is little to believe his career path would change from playing in AA for the Tribe for a year before deciding to play his final year of pro ball in Taiwan in 1998.

That of course leaves Posada. He would go on to play 17 total seasons for the Yankees in real life, peaking in 2003 when he hit .281 with 31 homers and finished 3^rd in the American League MVP race. He’d have a career OPS+ of 121 and hit 275 round trippers life-time. He actually would be the steal of this trade, especially if the Indians could lock him up long-term while he was young like the Yankees did.

So here we are, two fairly realistic trade deals that send Albert Belle away from Cleveland in exchange for a package of prospects. One package is a little underwhelming and ultimately rightfully so. The other is accidentally a very intriguing deal for the Tribe with the benefit of hind-sight. I personally think the Padres deal is more likely, but the Yankees deal is obviously more fun while not being outrageous, so let’s dig into that a little more.

Trading Belle in ’96 would have been an unprecedented move by itself, but can you even imagine if John Hart traded Albert Belle to the Yankees?!?! I don’t care that he just engineered a team that brought the Indians to their first World Series in 41 years. The fans would have run him out of town on a rail. The Yankees, while not a divisional rival after the switch to Wildcard play in 1994, were and are still venomously hated in Cleveland to this day. Sports talk radio callers would be comparing Hart to Frank “Trader” Lane in a matter of seconds, the man who traded beloved slugger Rocky Colavito in 1960 (my dad still isn’t over this by the way). Hart would essentially use up all good will that he ever had. This had better work. His job is on the line. Ironically for that reason, he better go with the Yankee trade because that is the one that will work.

Now its time to explain why the Yankees does trade work. Real life statistics would show that while Belle would come into this trade like a lion, he would come out like a lamb. In 1996 he is one of the most feared hitters in baseball, but who is to say he would stay in New York past 1996? In real life he signed the most lucrative contract in baseball with the Chicago White Sox upon reaching free agency before the 1997 season. He played 2 seasons including a year where he had an OPS+ of a staggering 172 in 1998 for Chicago. Belle then opted out and once again signed the most lucrative contract in baseball with Baltimore before the 1999 season. All that was great. He continued to be a monster in the right-handed batters box for three years following the end of his deal with the Indians, but then a degenerative hip condition brought his career to a shocking and premature end. He never played beyond 2000 and collected 18.3 WAR in his career between 1996 and his last game.

On the other side, let’s say the Indians find a way to extend Posada’s contract, much like the Yankees did and much like the Indians did with the likes of Thome, Vizquel and homegrown pitcher Charles Nagy during the early years of their rise. Posada didn’t reach free agency with the Yankees until after the 2007 season at age 35. I will be a little more modest. Let’s say the Indians are able to keep Posada under contract until 2004 instead. That would put him in line with when the remainder of the Indians core (ie: Vizquel) were let loose into free agency. Posada would be worth 26.2 WAR between 1996 and 2004. Even if by some miracle if Belle had decided to remain in Cleveland following 1996 (which was never going to happen anyway), he would not have been as productive in the long-run as Posada. Even with Drews, Pavlas and Riggs all falling on their face, the Indians arguably get the better of this deal.

Now, there is a lot to be said for context. Posada wouldn’t show immediate dividends by spending a year at AAA and then backing up Sandy Alomar Jr. A lot of his production would come in the latter years of ’02, ’03 and ’04 when the Indians began their down-turn. Maybe he would have even been traded at some point for other future players. Meanwhile, its likely the ’96 Yankees, who won the World Series without Belle, would win the World Series with him. But perhaps the bright New York lights, the obnoxious media coverage and Belle’s awful temperament would torpedo the Yankees title run, allowing the Atlanta Braves to be back to back World Series champs. I certainly don’t see Belle remaining lasting in New York beyond ’96 for this reason.

So, what have we learned here? All trades are a crap-shoot. They can be made with the best of intentions. You can do all the due diligence in the world. You can be as theoretically sound as you possibly can, but you never just know who is going to produce, which prospect is going to blossom, or which player’s body is going to break down.

In neither instance that I came up with did I solve the Indians starting pitching problem. One trade was a total bust. In the other I lucked into the secondary prospect I grabbed being an All-Star level player with a long career. As the fine folks at The Ringer would suggest, trading stars for prospects in baseball isn’t the fool-proof plan that it is assumed to be. While at the same time, at least trying to get something for a player that you know won’t be returning is still probably the right decision. This makes me think avoiding the sure-fire “can’t miss” prospect who will eat up all your trade capital in lieu of casting a wider net and grabbing multiple players of potential might be the real moral to the story. The more chances you have to fall into a Brantley, a Torres or even a Posada, the better.

Its part of what makes baseball so wonderfully frustrating.

With Some Teams Allowed to Practice Soon, Here’s An NBA Playoff Plan

Just yesterday NBA Commissioner Adam Silver announced that as states begin to ease restrictions on their “shelter in place” decrees, the league will permit the effected teams to return to their practice facilities if the lifted restrictions allow for it. This means that for instance, there is a chance the Cleveland Cavaliers could return to practice at the Cleveland Clinic Courts as Ohio Governor Mike DeWine is scheduled to announce a pull back of certain restrictions beginning at the turn of the month.

More importantly for the psyche of the country at large, this could be the first small step towards a return to professional sports in the United States. At the very least, its the first time there has been any sort of wind in regards to a return to play and practice in the four major team sports. Still, rather than provide any sort of clarity, confusion and questions abound on what to make of this decision.

Something is curious about Silver’s statement at large. Namely, this is not a planned and organized roll-out of return to business for the NBA and its teams. There are 14 teams in 11 states that are currently under “stay at home” orders that will expire on May 1st or sooner. Certainly, within the states involved there is sure to be differences in what kind of activity will be allowed or disallowed as each governor tries to find his/her way through the gradual process of attempting to return to something resembling normalcy. Of those 14 teams just 8 of them would be considered playoff teams as of today, that’s half of the regular 16 that compete in the first round. The highest seed to begin practicing could be the 3- seeded Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference. In the West it could be the 4-seeded Utah Jazz. As much as its good to hear about any activity for the NBA, as much as it can stoke what little optimism that we have, its clear this announcement today is not a fast track to an NBA playoffs. Further, Silver has said as much.

However, I am not here to be negative, rather the opposite. Many an individual to this point has tried taking a crack at describing what a return might look like for the NBA. Many more have lamented how complicated it is and because we are so seemingly far out from a return haven’t even really bothered with dealing with the details.

What better opportunity than now, with our first inkling of any type of sports optimism since Rudy Gobert was diagnosed with COVID-19, to come up with my own plan on how the NBA should proceed forward.

Before I begin, I absolutely recognize that I am simplifying this process. Its very easy to sit here from my desk and play arm chair commissioner and pretend like I know it all. People’s well-beings are at stake here, and like I have mentioned before, some things are more important than sports. I don’t see the harm in speculating though and I do see a lot of fun in it, so here we go.

My plan is admittedly smaller and less encompassing than some may like. There has been a lot of talk of finishing the regular season in either a full or truncated fashion. There has been talk of playing the playoffs in full among all the qualified teams. I have even seen one suggestion floated by The Ringer’s Bill Simmons that the NBA should have a 12-team playoff. My plan is unfortunately smaller than all of these, but for good reason.

The NBA should not only scrap any remaining regular season games, but should also get rid of the first round of the playoffs as well.

That’s right. Go with the top four seeds from each conference only. Why? For a number of reasons.

First, re-starting all thirty franchises is entirely impractical. My proposition is that the remainder of the season will be played within the City of Las Vegas. Vegas, which obviously doesn’t have its own NBA franchise, but is the unofficial home of USA Basketball and the NBA Summer League will easily have the facilities for 8 teams and will also have the built in amenities available to house players, staff and the like for as long as needed considering the dearth of empty hotel rooms the city is currently home to. Naturally, social distancing and even quarantine will still need apply. Players, staff and possibly their families will need to remain among themselves only as much as possible. Its easy for me to say, but its a small price to pay for helping the spirit of our nation (not to mention allowing everyone involved to get paid).

Packing up and sending eight teams to a potential NBA bubble in Las Vegas will be considerably easier than sending thirty teams, or even sixteen. The less teams, the less logistical headache and the less potential risk involved.

Additionally, with a sudden and abrupt end to the NBA season I think cutting the number of NBA teams that qualify for the playoffs is more fair when you consider how a potential playoff race could have altered the lower seeds entering the playoffs. For instance, would any of the Portland Trail Blazers, New Orleans Pelicans or Sacramento Kings have caught the Memphis Grizzlies for the 8th seed in the West? We will never know. They were all just 3.5 games behind Grizzlies at the time the season suspended, and the Kings in particular were hot, having won 7 of their last 10. The Pelicans were riding the wave of healthy rookie Zion Williamson. In a situation where the bottom seeds of the playoffs are essentially murky, and in a league where there’s probably one too many playoff rounds anyway when you consider that a team with a .462 winning percentage in the East was probably going to make the playoffs, why not eliminate the ambiguity and just go with the cream of the crop?

Yes, a team that exceeded expectations like the Oklahoma City Thunder will not be rewarded. The same can be said for the star-studded Philadelphia 76ers. Its a shame, but if those teams wanted to make the playoffs, they had their opportunity to work themselves to a 4-seed or higher in the 60+ games that were played.

Lastly, only one team ever ranked lower than the 4th seed has ever won the NBA Finals. That was the 1995 Houston Rockets, who were the defending champs. That’s it. The possibility of us missing out on the potential Finals winner by eliminating the bottom four seeds in each conference is extremely low. The benefits here outweigh the drawbacks.

With all this in mind, when May 1st approaches and governors begin to announce their plans, the league should take a comprehensive look at where each state falls. From there, even if your state is beginning to open up, if you aren’t a 4-seed or better in either conference your players and staff can pack it up. We will hopefully see you for training camp in November.

On the bright side, based upon the research I have done, there is the potential for two teams- the Miami Heat and Utah Jazz to begin practice depending on what their respective governors announce on May 1st. Those teams should put together a health and safety plan in order to protect their players and essential employees to be submitted to the league office. In fact, no team has to wait until their governor lifts restrictions to submit this plan. Its actually better to have it in place in advance. Once approved and permitted by law they can begin practice in anticipation of more and more teams coming to the opportunity to resume their operations.

Moving on, a lot has been made about what the quality of play will be when the teams will return. It will be hard for players who have been inactive for months to just jump right into the playoffs, let alone a shortened playoffs that is missing the first round. In this case, I would recommend taking a page out of the book of the Korean Baseball Organization. Teams in the Korean major baseball league played upwards of a month’s worth of inter-squad scrimmages in preparation for the regular season, that is now set to begin on May 5th. A gradual roll-out where teams play inter-squad games against themselves can provide them the opportunity to play themselves back into shape, and if done for a significant length of time, I think it could prove effective. The goal then would be to gradually let these teams play against themselves while they wait for all the remaining teams to become available. From their, the last team(s) allowed to begin operations will be given three weeks in order to get into form.

However, this plan is admittedly not fool-proof. One concern at this point would be California. Home of the two best teams in the Western Conference, Governor Gavin Newsom’s stay-at-home order is indefinite, unlike many other states. In contrast to Wisconsin, whose order is set to expire as of May 26th, its hard to even speculate on when the Lakers and Clippers would be capable to begin practicing. One other wrench is the Toronto Raptors, who are under the domain of an entirely different country. Lastly, while Las Vegas mayor Carolyn Goodman is pushing to re-open, Nevada Governor Steve Sisolak doesn’t think the state is near ready. Knowing when our neutral playoff site will be ready is problematic.

Nevada’s stay-at-home order is scheduled to expire on April 30th. Let’s assume that gets extended one more time to May 31st. Let’s then say they will need two weeks to prepare for the arrival of NBA personnel. We will start slow. Come June 15th, if any combination of the Lakers, Clippers and Raptors (or whoever else for that matter) are unable to begin practice in their home states, they can entire the Las Vegas NBA bubble and begin their three week inter-squad preparation period.

Throughout that three weeks, the other qualifying teams will gradually begin to enter the bubble and get acclimated to their new surroundings. That preparation period will be capped off with each team getting to play one exhibition game against an opponent from the other conference on Tuesday July 7th. On the 9th, the playoffs will begin.

From there, things are a bit simplified. For games only one court will be needed and naturally, there will be no fans allowed. I do think that if there is some way for the home team to control artificial crowd noise, that would do well to help the atmosphere. Perhaps the NBA can contact the New Orleans Saints…

Moving on, since so few teams are being used, games can be played in prime-time each night and as few as two referee teams could be necessary. That first night of July 9th would begin with a 7:30 PM Eastern tip off between the Miami Heat and the Milwaukee Bucks, and would be followed by the 10:30 tip off of the Utah Jazz and Los Angeles Lakers. The next night the Celtics play the Raptors and the Nuggets play the Clippers in the same time slots. From there, the match-ups can alternate back and forth. There’s no need for travel days and likely no need to have an extra off day to avoid a bad ratings night. When you consider the number of sports-starved eyeballs have consumed The Last Dance and the NFL Draft this week its hard to see how such a set-up for actual games wouldn’t be a huge hit even on the most inopportune of nights.

Factor in an extra day off at the conclusion of each playoff series and you are looking at the Conference Finals beginning on July 24th at the latest. From there, the conferences can just alternate nights and have prime-time to themselves. Perhaps 7 PM and 9:30 PM Eastern time starts would be in order.

By August 7th we would be staring the NBA Finals in the face and would have a champion crowned by August 19th, setting the league calendar back about 2 months, but leading to a reasonable Christmas Day start to the 2020-2021 NBA season.

Allowing for the other thousand variables that could possibly go wrong between now and then, of course…

A Baseball Debate: Do Today’s Pitchers Throw Harder Than They Used To?

One continual debate that I enjoy having with people that love baseball is about the idea of how hard pitchers have thrown throughout history. Recently, I’ve seen a lot of posts online about great baseball documentaries, and this conversation re-inspired a debate in my mind because of the Netflix documentary simply titled Fastball. For those unfamiliar, this film is about the evolution and origins of baseball’s most basic pitch, and even more about how we measure its speed effectively.

The cornerstone of this argument, and one baseball hill that I am absolutely willing to die on, is the question: Would pitchers from previous eras compete from a velocity standpoint with the greats of today?

My answer to this is an emphatic YES, but with one large caveat. I openly admit that the wonders of modern medicine and our improved knowledge of strength training and nutrition allow for more pitchers to throw hard today than ever before. However, I find it very hard to believe fireballers from decades past, like Walter Johnson, Bob Feller, Sandy Koufax didn’t throw just as hard. Today I am here to enter my plea on why.

We will start with the dubious, which is Johnson. I say he is dubious not because of his own merits, but because of the merits of the technology that was around to track him in his day. Arguably the greatest pitcher ever, the all-time leader in shutouts, a two-time MVP and a 417 game winner through 21 seasons for the lowly Washington Senators, Johnson was once clocked against a motorcycle while wearing street clothes and a mere few warmup pitches. Mathematics suggests that he threw a baseball at 97 mph that day. More anecdotally, Ty Cobb, 2^nd all-time in hits, called him “the most powerful arm ever turned loose in a ball park”. Johnson himself spoke to his own velocity, claiming that the later pitching star Bob Feller didn’t quite throw as fast as he. Which I would tend to believe, when you consider Johnson’s own even-handedness when he also claimed one of his contemporaries, Smoky Joe Wood, threw even harder.

Moving forward, we look at Feller. Many know the 18-year Cleveland Indians veteran as one of the best pitchers of baseball’s golden age. A look at his Baseball-Reference page suggests he had an admittedly early peak. Feller was an absolute workhorse early in his career, leading baseball in innings pitched 5 times by the time he was 28, and doing so while also missing three seasons due to military service. By the time the Indians had won their last World Series in 1948 Feller was 29 (the same age as pitchers Mike Clevinger and Alex Wood today, for reference) and had led baseball in strikeouts 8 times.

He did this with an absolutely blazing fastball. Ted Williams had hand-eye coordination not only great enough to be the last man to hit .400, but also be called “one of the best pilots I know” by future astronaut John Glenn. Williams in turn, called Feller “the best and fastest pitcher I ever saw”. In an effort to find out exactly how fast Feller, while still in his prime in 1946, was clocked by the US Army at 98.6 mph. That figure however came from the point that the ball would cross home plate. Today, the radar gun readings taken on television and by Statcast come from the time the ball leaves the pitcher’s hand. Computations on how much gravity and wind resistance would slow Feller’s ball down suggest that at the point of release the ball was likely at a velocity anywhere between 101 and 107 mph.

Bob Feller’s fastball being measured by the US Army, 1946. The device pictured, a Lumiline Chronograph measured the speed of the ball at home plate as shown.

I don’t care what year it was. Feller threw straight gas.

Skeptics will call both this and Johnson’s story old wives’ tales. They will point to the lack of reliable equipment used to measure speed or the potential faults in the calculations done by the Army. They will claim that the legend is bigger than the truth and that there’s no way without modern means that either man could possibly throw that hard. They will claim Williams and Cobb didn’t know any better in their day and age than to think these men threw fast. The reason Williams hit .400 was that pitching was so much easier to hit then. Cobb is a relic of the dead-ball era where bunts were more common than bombs. Meanwhile, the number of 95+ mph fastballs thrown nearly doubled between 2007 and 2015.

But let’s move forward, to another Indians fireballer just a couple decades later. In 1965 “Sudden” Sam McDowell led the American League in ERA and made his first All-Star team. This was a decade where the average baseball player was 20 pounds (at least partially of muscle) lighter than today. It was a time where ballplayers still needed winter jobs in order to live and couldn’t focus on training year-round. Specifically, McDowell himself weighed in at 190 lbs and therefore was 17 lbs lighter than today’s average player when he pitched 273 innings that season. For reference, no one in baseball has thrown as many as 250 innings since Justin Verlander did it in 2011. McDowell had all these factors stacked against him, yet struck out 10.7 batters per 9 innings in 1965. That’s essentially equivalent to Yankees’ ace Luis Severino who matched that figure in the much more strikeout-friendly 2017 season. Further, Severino is also considered by many the hardest throwing starting pitcher in baseball. McDowell’s sky high strikeout rate can be attributed to his fastball which was questioned to be just as fast, if not faster, than the great Sandy Koufax, another legendary pitcher with a cannon for a left arm.

Yes, I am once again making inferences. There can be flaws in my reasoning and my evidence isn’t entirely concrete. However, if McDowell wasn’t throwing just as hard as Severino, he sure was throwing just as effectively with the same showcase pitch.

For those doubters that may still be out there, perhaps a more scientific approach is necessary.

I can’t remember if it was a gym teacher, a baseball coach or some other adult of authority during my formative life, but I remember an individual of that stature in my teen years announcing very confidently to a group of young people including myself that “Throwing a baseball overhand is a completely unnatural motion. That’s why baseball pitchers always have arm pain and softball pitchers don’t.’

I cannot speak about softball pitching, but it turns out that the above statement about baseball is completely and utterly factually inaccurate. Not only is throwing overhand a natural action that humans have been performing since the dawn of our existence, but its actually a trait that is identifiably human. There isn’t a living creature known on this planet that is able to throw overhand with the same effectiveness or efficiency that a human being does. Not one. A common chimpanzee is anywhere from three to five times stronger than Aroldis Chapman is, but that chimp’s fastball wouldn’t get ticketed in a school zone.

A 2013 Harvard study concludes this and further reinforces the notion by stating that the human shoulder is specially built with elongated muscles that store energy and release it much in the way a slingshot or a catapult does. For another anatomical comparison, our shoulders are the equivalent of a kangaroo’s legs, that allow them to sour through the air in a way that is immediately identifiable as one of their main traits as a species. Throwing prowess, born possibly out of natural selection and the need to be able to throw a rock or a spear in order to hunt for dinner, is equally an attribute of humanity.

Not only does this mean that if aliens come down and allow us to choose the contest that will determine the future of our planet that we better well choose baseball, but it sets the precedent that humans have been predisposed to being able to throw heat for ages. Yes, modern techniques mean that more guys are reaching their peak velocity than ever before. You are able to build more better baseball pitchers today due to strength training, better mechanics and nutrition, but the premise that Feller, McDowell or Koufax really were firing bullets out there seems reasonable when you consider human anatomy.

Officially, the aforementioned Chapman has been clocked at 105 mph. The Army would claim that Feller was comparable in 1946, but if my premise that modern processes and equipment are helpful then something needs to be reconciled. If Chapman and Feller have the same amount of predisposition for throwing hard, and Chapman has the benefits of modern society while Feller doesn’t, then what gives? Why doesn’t Chapman throw harder?

Well first, he might. If Feller was more on the low end of the 101-107 range, then there’s your answer right there. If not though, then there too might be a precedent already that while humans are the best throwers on the planet, we might have already peaked in terms of our ability regardless of all the additional training that we can do.

Radar guns first came en vogue in the 1970s as they were proliferated into the MLB at the suggestion and encouragement of Michigan State coach Danny Litwhiler. While there reliability has improved over the years, Nolan Ryan‘s 103 mph fastball clocked in the 1978 All-Star Game is a reading to be reckoned with.

In that same year, the World Record for the 100 meter dash was held by American Jim Hines who set the record in 1968 (making him a contemporary of Ryan, Koufax and McDowell) at a time of 9.95 seconds. Today the record is 9.58 seconds, set in 2009 and held by Jamaican Usain Bolt, nearly 4 percent faster than Hines. Chapman’s 105 mph fastball is just 2 percent faster than Ryan by comparison. Human foot speed has improved at a rate double throwing speed, and we are assuming that Ryan just happened to throw his fastest pitch ever at the 1978 All-Star Game (plausible, but maybe not likely). In truth, the precedent is there that the peak of human throwing performance has been set.

If that can be the case for the time between Ryan and Chapman, than what makes that time period different than from Johnson to McDowell? What reason do we have to believe that our human biology alone isn’t enough to be able to bring the cheese?

I suggest we have none. Walter Johnson threw hard. Just like McDowell. Just like Ryan. Just like Chapman. And just like our prehistoric ancestors, throwing four-seamers to knock dinner out of the sky.

One Last (Imperfect) Statistical Analysis: 2020 vs 2009 Naismith HOF Class

Here we are. The final foe. I have tested the players of this year’s Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame against three classes of greats originating from similar inductions in 1980, 1987 and 2006, and each time this year’s recipients have held up to the challenge. So far, this does truly look like the greatest class of Basketball Hall of Famers ever.

For those of you who haven’t followed, this test has been performed through their collective award resumes, and a statistic I made up for our purposes called Accolades per Player, or APP. As a reminder one last time, here is that award resume for Kobe Bryant, Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett and Tamika Catchings.

58 All-Star Appearances (Bryant with the most, 18)

51 All-NBA/All-WNBA appearances (Bryant and Duncan tied at 15 total appearances, but Bryant had 11 1^st teams to Duncan’s 10)

51 All-Defensive Teams (Duncan with 15, but Bryant and Garnett were first team 9 times, meanwhile the WNBA only has one team, so all 12 of Catchings All-Defense awards are essentially first team)

6 Defensive Player of the Year Awards (Catchings had 5 of these, I don’t care that she’s a woman, she might be the best defender out of this whole group)

6 All-Star MVPs (Bryant had 4)

6 Finals MVPs (Duncan had 3 of these)

5 season MVPs (Duncan had 2)

4 rebounding championships (all Garnett)

1 scoring title (Bryant)

12 Championship rings (5 for Bryant and Duncan each)

Beyond that, I have also aggregated their traditional statistics to compare and contrast against the previous classes in question. I have taken these four legendary NBAers and melded them into one super-player with the following per game career stats:

20.1 Points Per Game

8.6 Rebounds per Game

3.8 Assists Per Game

1.3 Steals Per Game

1.3 Blocks per Game

0.218 Wins Shares Per 48 Minutes

Today we will do the same, but this test is special. Today, they will go up against an incredibly formidable class that includes three greats from the late 80s and 90s, including arguably the best basketball player of all-time.

2009: wing Michael Jordan, center David Robinson, point guard John Stockton

The 2009 HOF Class, all member of the Dream Team.

34 All-Star Appearances (11.3 APP vs 14.5 APP) (Jordan led with 14)

32 All-NBA Appearances (10.7 APP vs. 12.75) (Jordan and Stockton each had 11)

22 All-Defensive Team Appearances (7.3 APP vs. 12.75) (Jordan, 9)

2 Defensive Player of the Year Awards (0.7 APP vs.1.5) (Jordan & Robinson)

4 All-Star MVPs (1.3 APP vs. 1.5) (Jordan, 3)

6 Finals MVPs (2 APP vs. 1.5) (all Jordan)

6 regular season MVPs (2 APP vs. 1.25) (Jordan, 5)

11 scoring championships (3.7 APP vs. 0.5) (Jordan led the league in scoring 10 times! Ten!)

1 rebounding championship (0.3 APP vs. 1) (Robinson)

9 assist championships (3 APP vs. 0) (Stockton had all 9)

5 steals championships (1.7 APP vs. 0) (Jordan, 3)

1 block championship (0.3 APP vs. 0) (Robinson)

This group may finally give the 2020 Hall of Famers a run for their money. Look at that resume! Yes, our newest Hall of Famers take most of the actual trophies, but thanks to Jordan alone the 2009 group have as many Finals MVPs awards to their name as the 2020 inductees, and have done so without the benefit of a fourth player. Six regular season MVPs compared to the Kobe/Duncan/KG/Catchings’ five also gets the better of the newcomers whether or not you take APP into account. In reality, even with all the folklore, its easy to forget how incredible Jordan was. Not only was he the home of all six Finals MVPs himself, as well as five of the regular season ones, but his 10 scoring titles dwarf anything the 2020 Hall of Famers did, and that’s without even counting the token scoring championship that the Admiral won in 1993-1994. Statistical championships at large are really where this group shines as they also brought in nine assist championships (all Stockton), five steal titles (MJ and Stockton combined) and 1 block championship (Robinson). All of these conversely counteract the fact that they only had one rebound title compared to the 2020 groups four. Really, if you wanted to bet on one of these groups being the league leader in something in a given season, you should pick Jordan, Robinson and Stockton. They also, if nothing else, would likely make an incredibly devastatingly good three-on-three squad. That is a post for another day, but I really think I’d take Stockton, Jordan & Robinson in a game of three-on-three with any combination of Bryant, Duncan, Garnett and Catchings.

Moving on though, let’s look at this 2009 group in the statistical aggregate. Jordan, Robinson and Stockton averaged:

20.4 Points Per Game

6.0 Rebounds Per Game

6.6 Assists Per Game

2.0 Steals Per Game

1.2 Blocks Per Game

0.236 Win Shares Per 48 Minutes

For the first time, the pacing statistics of their median season, which is 1994-1995, were nearly the same as 2006-2007. Teams averaged one more possession in ’94-’95 with their PACE figure being 92.9, just a 1% increase over ’06-’07. This change merely bumps their statistics down marginally:

20.2 Points Per Game

5.9 Rebounds Per Game

6.6 Assists Per Game

2.0 Steals Per Game

1.2 Blocks per Game

0.236 Win Shares Per 48 Minutes (not altered)

Naturally, the two big men of the 2020 inductees propelled them to a higher rebound and rate and the 2009 squad is pushed to better assist numbers by Stockton. But with points being essentially the same its stark to realize that the group with 12.75 APP in terms of All-Defense honors didn’t accumulate nearly as many steals as less decorated defensive group from 2009. The less-awarded squad also blocked shots at nearly the same rate as the 2020 group despite having only one big men in their presence. Finally, the cherry on top of this statistical sundae is that the 2009 Hall of Famers average 0.236 WS/48, which bests the 2020 Hall of Famers.

In all, this is darn close. Bryant, Duncan, Garnett and Catchings are more highly decorated in terms of traditional awards like All-Stars, All-NBAs and so on, and a lot of that can be attributed to the great longevity that all four of those players possessed. They won awards in the late stages of their careers, not just their primes. They had to play at a high level throughout. Statistically though, the edge goes to Jordan, Robinson and Stockton. They actually led the league in different stat categories more often. Jordan alone had more scoring titles than the 2020 inductees had of any type of statistical title. Additionally, their per game averages are comparable to the 2020 squad in a lot of ways and I think its most impressive that they generated steals with such frequency. Lastly, the WS/48 analytic would also fall in the 2009 Hall of Famers favor.

Objectively, this is way too close to call and not worthy of splitting the hair. The 2009 Class was more statistically dominant, the 2020 Class was more highly decorated. Both are the best we have ever seen, that much this exercise has made me sure of, but to call one better than the other at some point is just a matter of preference.

My preference then is to side with the 2020 group on the premise of sheer individual talent. Unequivocally, Jordan is better than Bryant, that much can’t be argued against. However, Duncan is probably the best power forward of all-time which leads me to prefer him to Robinson. That resolution leaves me with the strange choice of comparing Stockton to either Garnett or Catchings. In their merits as a total basketball player and in comparison to their own peers, I think I’d pick both Garnett and Catchings. Both scored at a more elite level, won championships and were the best players in the history of a given franchise (Timberwolves for Garnett; Fever for Catchings) teams. Stockton cannot boast any of those things.

Ironically, I spent this entire time on a statistical analysis that led me to an anecdotal answer, but so be it. Ultimately, narrative and opinion does play a factor, particularly when the numbers get so close that you can barely tell the difference. I strongly believe this is our situation. Ultimately, no matter what your preference, each and every one of these Hall of Famers is deserving of a recognition that I desperately hope that they all receive.

Are They the Best Class Ever? An (Imperfect) Statistical Analysis of the 2020 NBA Hall Inductees- Part 2

At the time of my last entry, I spoke to the prowess of the players of the 2020 Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame class and how quite possibly, this is the prominent class in the history of the institution. To test that theory, I have put together the four classes that I think would be challenge the 2020 class and am testing the group’s against each other in terms of how many awards that had been adorned and their statistical abilities on the court as a collective.

As a reminder, that 2020 class consists of four players that are planned to be inducted this summer: Lakers legendary guard Kobe Bryant, iconic Spurs power forward Tim Duncan, passionate Timberwolves/Celtics/Nets power forward Kevin Garnett, and Indiana Fever forward Tamika Catchings of the WNBA. Where I had last left off, I had to the conclusion that my first test against the 1980 class of Oscar Robertson, Jerry Lucas and Jerry West went in favor of the newest entries in to the Hall of Fame. That brings us to their next challenge. You can look back in my original post if you like, but for the lazy, here are the main credentials for Bryant/Duncan/Garnett/Catchings.

58 All-Star Appearances (Bryant with the most, 18)

51 All-NBA/All-WNBA appearances (Bryant and Duncan tied at 15 total appearances, but Bryant had 11 1^st teams to Duncan’s 10)

51 All-Defensive Teams (Duncan with 15, but Bryant and Garnett were first team 9 times, meanwhile the WNBA only has one team, so all 12 of Catchings All-Defense awards are essentially first team)

6 Defensive Player of the Year Awards (Catchings had 5 of these, I don’t care that she’s a woman, she might be the best defender out of this whole group)

6 All-Star MVPs (Bryant had 4)

6 Finals MVPs (Duncan had 3 of these)

5 season MVPs (Duncan had 2)

4 rebounding championships (all Garnett)

2 scoring titles (Bryant) (I erroneously credited them with only 1 in my first post)

12 Championship rings (5 for Bryant and Duncan each)

Career Stats Combined/Aggregated Together

20.1 Points Per Game

8.6 Rebounds per Game

3.8 Assists Per Game

1.3 Steals Per Game

1.3 Blocks per Game

0.218 Wins Shares Per 48 Minutes

And now, for our next candidates.

1987: forward Rick Barry, guard Walt Frazier and shooting guard Pete Maravich

24 All-Star Appearances (8 Accolades Per Player vs. 14.5 APP from the 2020 squad) (Barry led with 12)

28 All-League Appearances (6.7 APP vs. 12.75 APP) (Barry led with 10, including times he was named All-ABA)

7 All-Defensive Teams (2.3 APP vs. 12.75) (all Frazier)

0 Defensive Players of the Year

2 All-Star MVPs (.7 APP vs. 1.5) (Barry & Frazier)

1 Finals MVP (0.3 APP vs. 1.5 ) (Barry)

0 regular season MVPs

2 scoring championships (.7 APP vs. 0.5) (Barry & Maravich)

1 steals championship (0.3 APP vs. 0) (Barry)

3 Championship Rings (1 APP vs. 2.75) (Frazier won twice)

The only thing this group has on the 2020 Hall of Famers are statistical titles. They hold 2 scoring championships between Barry (’66-’67) and Pistol Pete (’76-’77) along with Barry also leading the NBA in steals for a single season (’74-’75). This tops Bryant’s two years as the top scorer based on APP and a complete lack of being the best in the league at thievery by any of the four newest members of the Hall of Fame. In every other listed accolade though Bryant, Duncan, Garnett and Catchings best the 1987 group. The easiest way to make a succinct distinction here is that to notice that the 2020 squad had 12.75 APP in terms of All-League awards while the 1987 group has just 6.7 in comparison. That 6.7 also includes Barry’s All-ABA awards from his time in the now long-defunct alternative basketball league where he was easily one of the top stars.

Meanwhile, steals and blocks are once again not available for all the seasons that the ’87 Hall of Famers played so those will once again be omitted from our aggregation of their stats. However, their basic averages suggests that this group is formidable, particularly in terms of scoring. They averaged:

22.7 Points Per Game

5.8 Rebounds Per Game

5.4 Assists per Game

0.143 Win Shares Per 48 Minutes

Luckily, their median season is the 1974-1975 NBA season and we are now far enough into history that the PACE statistic is available to describe how many possessions occurred in games relative to today. I will not need to Jerry-rig an answer based on shot attempts like I did for the 1980 Hall of Fame class. To that end, in the 1974-1975 NBA season teams averaged 104.5 possessions per game, compared to just 91.9 in the ’06-’07 median season of the 2020 Hall of Famers. That comes to 14% more possessions in ’74-’75 and with this in mind, if I normalize Barry, Frazier and Maravich’s stats to ’06-’07 standards they average:

20.0 Points Per Game

5.1 Rebounds Per Game

4.7 Assists per Game

I think makes them comparable to our 1980 group, but even the ’80 Hall players top this class when you consider their accolades. For that reason alone, 1987 Hall of Fame class is not one to consider better than this year’s class. We must move along.

2006: forward Charles Barkley, guard Joe Dumars, small forward Dominique Wilkins

26 All-Star Appearances (8.7 APP vs. 14.25) (Barkley led with 11)

21 All-NBA Appearances (7 APP vs. 12.75) (Barkley, also 11)

5 All-Defensive Teams (1.7 APP vs. 12.75) (all Dumars)

1 All-Star MVP (0.3 APP vs. 1.5) (Barkley)

1 Finals MVP (0.3 APP vs. 1.5) (Dumars)

1 regular season MVP (0.3 APP vs. 1.25) (Barkley)

1 scoring championship (0.3 APP vs. 0.5) (Wilkins)

1 rebounding championship (0.3 APP vs. 1) (Barkley)

For all the name recognition, this group just doesn’t compare in terms of accolades to the 2020 Hall of Famers. They just don’t have the ammunition to keep up with the hardware that Kobe/Duncan/KG/Catchings have, point blank.

But not so fast, my friend…

There may be a good reason for that lack of APP. This group of inductees just happened to play in the era of Jordan. As such, His Royal Airness piled up awards and accomplishments as arguably the best player of all-time. In doing this, he took a lot of those awards from some of his also very worthy adversaries. Players like Barkley and ‘Nique likely lost awards in this era much like how teams like the Knicks and SuperSonics missed out on potential championships. With that in mind, we let’s look at the stats. Even better, we also now have steal and block numbers to help complete the picture. This group averages:

21.1 Points Per Game

7.0 Rebounds Per Game

3.6 Assists Per Game

1.2 Steals Per Game

0.5 Blocks Per Game

0.161 Win Shares Per 48 Minutes

Their median season is the 1991-1992 campaign, which would suggest that what I said about living in Jordan’s era is correct. This season was the year of his second of six rings. I won’t take you through all the numbers again, but just know that PACE statistics suggest that the ’91-’92 season was 5% faster than the ’06-’07 season. The Class of 2006 normalized statistics then are:

20.1 Points Per Game

6.7 Rebounds Per Game

3.4 Assists Per Game

1.1 Steals Per Game

0.5 Blocks Per Game

0.161 Win Shares Per 48 Minutes (not altered)

It turns out they are statistically actually pretty darn comparable to the 2020 Hall of Famers. Their shortcomings come from not rebounding or blocking shots as well despite having The Round Mound to propel them in those categories. Taking it one more step analytically though, this group averages 0.161 Win Shares per 48 Minutes, not nearly as good as the 2020 group that clocks in at 0.218 WS/48. That analytic doesn’t make it look nearly as close the the traditional statistics did. Depending on how much you trust new-fangled statistics there could be an argument here, but when you combine their lack of Win Shares with their lack of hardware, I think we need to turn down the idea that the 2006 Hall of Famers match the 2020 class.

But there is one more challenger. What about the aforementioned Jordan, arguably the greatest player of all-time? Better yet, he is paired up with two other greats from his era. Arguments already about about their greatness, but next time we will pair up the great 2009 Hall of Fame class against this one.

Coming soon…

Are They the Best Class Ever? An (Imperfect) Statistical Analysis of the 2020 NBA Hall Inductees- Part 1

I hope that the nine individuals that will be inducted into the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame in 2020 will get the fanfare that they deserve. On Saturday the Hall of Fame announced that three men’s and one woman’s player, (Kobe Bryant, Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett and Tamika Catchings, respectively) along with four coaches (Kim Mulkey, Barbara Stevens, Eddie Sutton and Rudy Tomjanovich) and one Olympic executive (Patrick Baumann) will be inducted into the Hall of Fame, with the induction ceremony scheduled for August 29^th.

Given world events, that feels like an eternity from now. As COVID-19 casts a shadow over everything in its wake, I want to take a moment to appreciate the four players that are planning to be inducted into Springfield this summer.

Naturally, there is one other albatross to mention among this, and this is the untimely death of one of those beloved inductees, Kobe Bryant. So, while this announcement could be considered doubly somber, I’d rather evoke the competitive spirit that was so deeply embedded into Bryant’s game and attitude. Ultimately, basketball and its other professional sport relatives are about entertainment through competition, and while the show can’t go on for real right now, we can always talk about it like it is.

With that being said, this particular group of players is a special one. Of course, all Hall of Fame inductees are the best of their time, but a group that in this case consists of these four is one that could be argued to be one of the best Hall of Fame classes of all-time.

I mean, let’s just look at their combined accolades:

58 All-Star Appearances (Bryant with the most, 18)

51 All-NBA/All-WNBA appearances (Bryant and Duncan tied at 15 total appearances, but Bryant had 11 1^st teams to Duncan’s 10)

51 All-Defensive Teams (Duncan with 15, but Bryant and Garnett were first team 9 times, meanwhile the WNBA only has one team, so all 12 of Catchings All-Defense awards are essentially first team)

6 Defensive Player of the Year Awards (Catchings had 5 of these, I don’t care that she’s a woman, she might be the best defender out of this whole group)

6 All-Star MVPs (Bryant had 4)

6 Finals MVPs (Duncan had 3 of these)

5 season MVPs (Duncan had 2)

4 rebounding championships (all Garnett)

2 scoring titles (Bryant)

12 Championship rings (5 for Bryant and Duncan each)

I can’t even imagine how much hardware that is. Beyond this, if you were to mold the four of them into one player and get aggregate statistical averages for them as this one “super-player” their averages would be:

20.1 Points Per Game

8.6 Rebounds Per Game

3.8 Assists Per Game

1.3 Steals Per Game

1.3 Blocks Per Game

0.218 Win Shares Per 48 Minutes

That’s quite the player. Averaging 20/9/4 is quite the feat for any one individual let alone four of them combined over the course of their careers including the high and low points of those careers. In NBA history, 68 players have averaged 20 PPG in their careers, and only five of those players also averaged at least 8.5 rebounds and 3.5 assists (Chris Webber, Charles Barkley, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Karl Malone & Wilt Chamberlin). Only Webber also averaged 1.3 steals and blocks (and probably Chamberlin, but they didn’t track those stats in his time). This group of 4 is in rarefied company when you also consider that aggregating their numbers against each other should dilute them a little bit. Yet, here they are, setting a standard that was incredibly difficult to replicate.

Initially, I was going to look at playoff stats as well to include in their resume, but in all my time and effort I came to the conclusion that actually, there is very little statistical difference in any of the samples that I have taken between regular season and playoff numbers. For that reason, you will just have to take my word for it, and trust that while certain players do rise to the occasion at times, for this longer analysis of full careers, that distinction just isn’t necessary.

I mention this because, I really wanted to bring some historical context to this Hall of Fame class. Just how good are they? Really, how do they stack up to other classes of their kind?

Looking back through the history of Hall of Fame inductions I only found four classes that I thought might possibly be comparable. Admittedly, this wasn’t very scientific and to be frank, I’m just doing my best. Take everything I write here as the opinion of an enthusiastic and knowledgeable sports fan, do not take it as information from a professional statistician, because I’m not one.

Anyway, I scanned the list of all Naismith Hall of Fame classes and came up with four possible competitors. Remember, I am speaking strictly about players. Its only too obvious that the Dream Team being inducted as a unit is more prominent than the 2020 Hall of Fame class. Further, every group I am going to mention is going to only have 3 players in it, and therefore will be at a disadvantage. For that reason, I will be factoring in a stat I just created called “Accolades Per Player” or APP, which is exactly what it sounds like. It is an average of how many each class had of each award per player.

Let’s get to the first candidate.

Class of 1980: PG Oscar Robertson, PF Jerry Lucas, G Jerry West.

33 All-Star Appearances (11 APP vs. 14.5 APP for 2020 Class) (West led with 14)

28 All-NBA Appearances (9.3 APP vs. 12.75 for 2020) (West, 12)

5 All-Defensive Teams (1.6 APP vs 12.75) (West had all 5)

0 Defensive Players of the Year

5 All-Star MVPs (1.3 APP vs 1.5) (Robertson led with 3)

1 Finals MVP (0.3 APP vs. 1.5) (West)

0 MVPs

1 scoring championship (0.3 APP vs 0.3) (West)

7 assist championships (2.3 APP vs 0) (Robertson, 6)

3 Championship Rings (1 APP vs 2.75) (each had one)

The only thing that this group is actually even close in terms of accolades is All-Star MVPs as they have a total of 5, with the Big O having three of them. Outside of that, they also have 7 assist championships (also mostly Robertson), something the front-court heavy 2020 Hall of Famers didn’t accomplish at all. Lastly, West matches his protege Bryant in terms of having one single scoring championship. Unfortunately, none of their other award totals stack up.

As far as statistics, the league didn’t start recording steals and blocks until the last year of this group’s careers, so those won’t be available to me, however, their per game averages are still quite interesting. The 1980 class averaged:

23.5 Points Per Game

9.3 Rebounds Per Game

6.7 Assists Per Game

0.189 Win Shares Per 48 Minutes

It seems like that means that they would blow this years class out of the water statistically, especially when you consider that two guards were part of a group that out-rebounded two of the most dominant big men of the recent era. However, the pacing of the game needs to come into play as well. In this 1980 group’s median season, which would have been the 1967-1968 season, there were a total of 137.9 shot attempts per game (field goals and free throws combined). In comparison, in this year’s class’s median season of 2006-2007 there were a total of just 105.8 shots per game. That means that shot attempts, and therefore opportunities to either score, rebound or assist were coming at a rate of about 30% more for the 1980 class (I couldn’t account for the first shot of two free throws on this, so its not exact, but its relatively close). If you then normalize the 1980 class’s stats to those ’06-’07 rates you would get:

18.0 Points Per Game

7.1 Rebounds Per Game

5.1 Assists Per Game

0.189 Win Shares Per 48 Minutes (not altered)

This suggests then that the 2020 Hall of Famers were indeed more statistically gifted, albeit by a small margin.

However, this is just the beginning. Now that I have established my parameters and given an example of how this analysis will work I plan to jump right into the data and details next time. There are yet three more Hall of Fame classes to compare to this newly anointed 2020 class. How will the likes of Maravich, Barkley, Robinson, and the great Michael Jordan stack up?

Stick to this space to find out.

Where to Turn as COVID-19 Takes Our Games Away… Its all Digital These Days

It’s a quiet and bleak time in the world of sports. As all non-essential workers have been asked to step away from their work lives, the universe of professional sports has been put on pause. I’m sad to say that my previous prediction of how the athletic part of our society would react to the outbreak of COVID-19 was incredibly naive. Players, facility workers, fans and so many more await the day when our favorite pastimes will be back, in the name of public health.

In the meantime, distractions are hard to come by. Nearly every headline heard or read is about the pandemic taking hold of our society, physically and mentally. At a time where we could really use a pleasant distraction, a time that I’ve heard compared to World War II, in terms of global efforts, we are missing one of the biggest pleasantries that our civilization provides.

So what is a sports fan to do at a time like this? Where is our refuge?

The obvious solution for the sports fan is the bevy of classic games that sports networks have been showing. Just this past Saturday ESPN hosted “K Day”, a tribute to some of the best strikeout performances in recent ESPN baseball history. That same day NBA TV aired multiple NBA Finals match-ups from the summers of 2013 and 2014 between the San Antonio Spurs and Miami Heat. These nostalgic re-watches are great, but not without fault.

The problem, as perfectly described by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller this week at the baseball podcast Effectively Wild, is the predictability of these outcomes. I have a friend who watched Kerry Wood’s 20 strikeout performance as part of “K Day”. Naturally, he knew exactly what was going to happen. I knew who was going to win the Finals games before I even made the decision to continue watching them. Sometimes familiarity is great. Statistics show that people genuinely enjoy watching re-runs of television shows, but at some point the monotony of classic games will kick in. They leave something to be desired. I think I may have the answer for that.

In so many ways, even before this global incident, our lives have become digital. That has only become exacerbated now. We are seeing a digital revolution not occur before our eyes, but become reinforced as “work from home” now is now more than just an option for some, but a lifeline. Dine-in delivery is now our way to eat out and support local business at the same time. As so many of us find ourselves away from friends and loved ones, we are now more than ever trying to connect through the web using entities like Skype, Zoom, and social media.

So why can’t the answer to our great sports absence be digital as well? There’s no doubt that sports video games have been a big part of professional sports’ marketing scheme since licensing agreements first became prominent in the 1990s. Personally, I still remember the majority of 1998 MLB rosters due to the countless hours of playing Major League Baseball featuring Ken Griffey Jr. for Nintendo 64.

Alas, I used to be a more dedicated sports gamer in the past than I am now. Case and point, my most recent version of Sony’s MLB the Show is the 2017 version, but in lieu of any actual live baseball to be watched, I found my own way to watch it. Setting up post-season mode in the game, I am having a replay of the 2017 post-season, to assuage my baseball-tooth, not playing the games, but just letting the computer play them against itself. This gives me the opportunity to make dinner or take care of chores in the living room. Much like what I would have done if the Indians had picked up their schedule this week in real life.

I am far from the only one to come up with this solution though. Not long after it was announced that Utah Jazz center Rudy Gobert had COVID-19, and the NBA season was shut down indefinitely, the Phoenix Suns announced they would be playing the all missed games using the NBA 2k20 video game. True to form, they’ve played every game to date using varying methods. They’ve had a member of their 2K League team play as the Suns, and players like Devin Booker and Frank Kominsky have also taken over the sticks. More recently, that same 2K League player, Antonio Salvidar played host to the game along with a member of the Washington Wizards 2K League team as the game was controlled in full by the CPU. Lastly on this past Friday, the Suns radio play-by-play team called the action as the digital Suns took on and defeated the digital Philadelphia 76ers at the hands of real life small forward Mikal Bridges.

Meanwhile, baseball-reference.com is using the PC game Out of the Park Baseball to simulate this season’s games for its stats pages. Even better, my own home team of the Cleveland Indians can now actually be watched through the miracle this year’s iteration of MLB the Show. A grassroots effort started at the Indians’ Reddit page has produced a digital version of the Indians schedule, fully watchable live or after the fact on Twitch TV. One of the members of the subreddit is producing the season day by day as the schedule should have progressed. Full disclosure, I am watching Game 3 of the season right now as I type this and the Indians find themselves tied with the Tigers in the top of the 4^th.

I was able to ask the gentleman behind this effort, an IT Director by day known online as thewarsquirrel about what possessed him to put on the games.

“I guess from my perspective, I’m in the same boat as many of the fans of MLB in general. You spend the whole off-season looking forward to what is to come in the season,” he explained, “and it’s just a really great way to pass the time.”

Not to be outdone, he also mentioned missing the sense of communal experience that comes with being a sports fan among other enthusiasts. He stated, “You miss out on that chance to commiserate or celebrate throughout the season. It’s really the community that does it for me. So my goal with these streams is to bring that anticipation back into play a bit, give us all a way to escape for a short while, and feel that excitement or frustration as the season progresses.”

Lastly, in terms of hopes for this project he is modest, yet ambitious claiming “My biggest goal, is just to get more people gathered around watching it, and hopefully build it into more of a social event, just like if these were real season games…. I think once we have a consistent core of followers who are engaged for the most part, it’ll be easier to expand it.”

The best part is something that Mr. Squirrel eluded to himself. I don’t know how this game I’m watching will end. I don’t know how this season will end. The wind could be completely out of my sails by this time next week if the Indians get off to a slow start, but at least I am watching an impartial game that could have any realistic outcome. As a testament to games like 2K and The Show, they’ve become so realistic, and so true to form, they can be used for this exact purpose. I may be without real life baseball, but I got darn close to the next best thing. They really are simulators at this point.

And then there’s yet another step towards simulation. Last week, NASCAR introduced us to iRacing. NASCAR itself is simulating its racing season using a computer simulator that real-life drivers often use for practice. The debut came last Sunday as Denny Hamlin squeaked past Dale Earnhardt Jr. in a lively finish at Miami-Homestead Speedway. It was the most watched “e-sport” on television ever.

Not only has NASCAR decided to continue the season with its iRacing Invitational, but Fox Sports plans to broadcast the races in full, including today race won not by a regular driver on the physical circuit, but a 674-time winner on this digital one, Timmy Hill. In a time where we don’t get to see many of our most talented athletes perform, this is likely as close as we are going to get with the best of the physical competing with the best of digital. And you know what? For what it is it seems pretty darn good.

For now, we all just need to hold together. Our games will be back for real soon enough, but much like this current public health crisis is changing our lives, it very well could change our sports. Maybe we will see a day where the climate change effects of auto racing lead us to full-time simulators. Maybe the time we are in creates the marriage that entities like sports leagues and video game companies have been looking for between sport and E-Sport. Maybe this is just the best distraction we have right now and we just can’t wait for life to change back to normal, whether or not normal really exists

Only time will tell, but for now, the 7^th inning is about to start and its still scoreless. Let’s see if the Indians can rally late.

The Three At-Bat Minimum: A Crazy Idea to Up Interest in Baseball (its different than the three batter minimum)

A lineup card from Game 6 of the 2017 Word Series. It will all make sense in a second.

Watch enough well-pitched baseball games and eventually you will hear something similar to:

“Mike Clevinger was stellar today, pitching a complete game shut out. He allowed just one hit and one walk over 9 innings, but was the benefactor of two double play balls. He faced the minimum.”

“The minimum.” For those that may not already know, the minimum refers to the fact that at the very least a baseball team will bat through its lineup three times during a nine inning game. The context above is when you will currently here about it; when a pitcher completes a game in such a way that he faces no more hitters than may be required, but does not pitch a perfect game. You can also hear that the pitcher faced “x number of hitters more than the minimum”, usually to emphasize he didn’t face that many more.

I have an idea that I think could potentially make baseball a more popular game in America, and it focuses around this idea of “the minimum”.

Before I go any further, I want to be very clear. If baseball were a political spectrum I would likely be considered a baseball moderate. I love that the American League and National League deviate on the designated hitter rule. I enjoy that baseball has unwritten rules that so many find to be antiquated, but at the same time think the game could sometimes afford to get with the times. There’s nothing wrong with some moderate show-boating on a home run, but at the same time, I understand if the pitcher feels a certain type of way about said show-boating.

What I am about to suggest is far from a moderate point of view. I like the rule I am about to propose theoretically, but might feel differently in practice. Its radical, but I think its worthy of suggestion despite the fact that I am still also work-shopping it as a concept. At this point, I want to reveal it even though maybe I’m still not fully confident in it.

As of this season, whenever this season happens to start, we will have a three batter minimum for pitchers. As such, pitchers are required to pitch until they at least face three batters, or the inning ends, except in cases of injury. What I suggest today is the three at bat minimum.

Currently, Rule 6.01 of the MLB rule book reads as follows:

(a) Each player of the offensive team shall bat in the order that his name appears in his team’s batting order.

(b) The first batter in each inning after the first inning shall be the player whose name follows that of the last player who legally completed his time at bat in the preceding inning.

I suggest we change the rule to what is below. The actual changes are in bold.

(a) Each player of the offensive team shall bat in the order that his name appears in his team’s batting order. For a minimum of three trips through the batting order.

(b) The first batter in each inning after the first inning shall be the player whose name follows that of the last player who legally completed his time at bat in the preceding inning for the same three trips, after which the offensive team may create a new batting order for any subsequent inning. This order may be altered on an inning by inning basis.

To put it more clearly, once a team hits through your batting order three times they may change their batting order to whatever they would like at the beginning of any following inning. A new inning means the opportunity for a new batting order.

I will await the vitriol from baseball fans that are more purist than me. How could I possibly suggest such a thing?

Its a rather quite simple equation of excitement and marketability.

Baseball today finds itself often playing third fiddle to both football and basketball in the United States in terms of popularity. One major reason suggested by fans, players, and experts is that MLB needs to do a much better of job marketing its players. This is true. There are many great talented personalities in this game coming from a wide variety of backgrounds and perspectives. MLB and the players themselves could do well to sell their talent much better than they do today.

I believe though that there is an inherent problem in the game that its more popular brethren don’t contend with. Part of the game itself is its own Achilles heel. A simple comparison will bring it to light.

Game 7 of the 2019 NBA Eastern Conference Semi-finals between the Toronto Raptors and Philadelphia 76ers may have been the best basketball game of last NBA season. In a winner-take-all match-up neither team led by more than 4 points in the last 4:30 seconds of the game and with the exception of a deep 2-point basket by Philadelphia’s JJ Redick (a prolific shooter from deep) and a missed three pointer by Toronto’s Serge Ibaka each shot attempt in the final stretch was taken by an All-Star level player. Stars controlled the close game late. This culminated in the most memorable moment of the season, then Toronto star Kawhi Leonard’s fall-away from the right baseline that hung on the rim for what seemed like eternity before falling through the net. Toronto won in dramatic fashion, 92-90 and would go on to take the Larry O’Brien trophy.

This is the brunt of my argument. Basketball puts itself in a position where when the game is on the line you know the ball is going to a team’s best player. Michael Jordan was made Michael Jordan in part by “the shot”. In short, if there is the possibility for a memorable moment down the stretch, the fans are going to get their money’s worth. The opportunity to make a difference is going to find its way into the hands of the game’s stars. The same can be said for football. If the Kansas City Chiefs are down four points late, best believe the ball is going to be put into the hands of Patrick Maholmes. For better or for worse, the fans get to see greatness work under pressure at every opportunity.

Now imagine if “the shot” never happened because it wasn’t Jordan’s turn to shoot. What if it was Fred VanVleet’s turn to have the ball in his hands for Toronto with the clock running down? What if the Chiefs were required to run the ball every other play? Think about how many memorable moments we would miss if such rules existed. This is how baseball works.

Going into the top of the 9^th of Game 6 of the 2017 World Series the Los Angeles Dodgers faced elimination at the hands of the Houston Astros. The Dodgers led 3-1 that night as the Astros took their last turn at bat from Chavez Ravine with the bottom third of their order, including the pitcher’s spot due up. Rather than have the privilege of being able to bring the eventual World Series MVP (George Springer), a two time All-Star (Alex Bregman) and reigning Most Valuable Player (Jose Altuve) to the plate, Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen faced Marwin Gonzalez, a utility-player having a career year, Josh Reddick, a defensive-minded outfielder also having a career year, and Carlos Beltran, a 40 year-old pinch-hitter in the last at-bat of his career.

Game 6 0f the 2017 World Series featured no losing team highlights in the 8th or 9th innings of this highlight reel. Would that be the case with the three at bat minimum?

All of the now apparent Astros cheating aside, think about the lost opportunity for baseball that was this 9^th inning. The Dodgers, with one of the best closers in the game on the mound were able to avoid facing some of the best hitters in baseball with the tying run on the on-deck circle. This could have been a magic moment of epic proportions for the game of baseball, or at the very least Houston could have increased the drama of the moment by bringing their best to the plate. Instead, the Astros went down without a whimper, even if they would eventually go on to win the Series.

In short, marketing of stars is inherent in basketball and football. In baseball it isn’t. The three at bat minimum would both use the game to promote its stars and manufacture the type of drama that could bring more interest to both its biggest stages and random evening games in June.

Yes, there is a bit of inherent democracy in the way baseball is currently played, and yes, there is value to that. I am not suggesting this concept is something that should be absolutely abolished and that is the reason why teams would wait until they have hit through their order three times to re-start their lineups. Everyone still gets at least three at bats. This allows us to avoid a ridiculous amount of stat-padding that would entirely throw statistics out of whack in comparison to historical context, and would still cause managers to have to weigh offensive value against defensive prowess for their starting lineup.

In relation to the pitcher’s spot in the National League, I think that while the rule should not require the starting pitcher to hit three times, it would require a pitcher in general to hit three times. This, along with the fact that a team will more often want to save its best relievers for late in games, will encourage managers to have their starting pitchers pitch deeper into games. Not only will this increase the profile of prolific starting pitchers, it will also keep the continual parade of fire-throwing middle relievers from turning the game into a slog, and will increase offense. Further, offense will also be inherently increased by having the games best hitters hit more often. If offense really is tied to fan interest, we will ultimately prove it this way.

Additionally, with relief pitching becoming more prominent over the past five decades, defenses have benefited from specialization. We have seen that advantage continue to increase over time while the rules have continued to restrict offense. Rather than secretly juice the ball or players, what better way to even the playing field and draw more attention to your game than ensure the best players hit with the game on the line? The average MLB game last season saw about 38 plate appearances per team. With 27 being “the minimum” that would suggest that teams could start re-ordering lineups in the 7^th inning on most occasions. Good offensive play would provide more opportunities and and poor play lead to less.

Lastly, strategy, which is always worshiped by baseball purists, could also see an increase under this new system.

Its the 8^th inning and your team is down by 1 run. Do you send your best three sluggers to the plate and hope just one of them can run into a pitch over the middle of the plate? Do you send your best on base guy to the plate to lead off and try to get him around the bases? Do you have your speedster lead off and try to wreak havoc? What if you are the team nursing that one run lead? Then what strategy do you use for insurance runs? What does the opposing team try to do with their pitching in order to counteract these varying lineups? How important is alternating left handed and right handed batters in these late inning situations? What about bigger deficits? What provides the best opportunity to come back from three runs down? The questions barely have an end!

I understand this is a big change to implement that alters a large part of the spirit of baseball, but a change of this magnitude isn’t unprecedented. Another bat and ball sport, cricket, created a variation of itself, Twenty20, in the face of complaints about its pacing. The changes have made faced much popular fanfare all over the globe. Also, basketball has toyed with the “Elam Ending”, even having this year’s NBA All-Star game not end based on an arbitrary clock, but by playing three timed quarters and then playing the fourth quarter until a predetermined score is exceeded. It received rave reviews.

This could be baseball’s opportunity to modernize itself while still keeping its soul. This is the opportunity for Mike Trout to reach his full potential as an American sports mega-star. This is the opportunity for starting pitchers and closers all around the game to make themselves into some of the biggest names in the league. Interest abounds in this 3 at bat minimum rule.

One hundred years ago in the wake of the Black Sox scandal, Babe Ruth revolutionized baseball by becoming the first player to try to drive the ball in the air and hit home runs. This game has always evolved with the times, and kept itself relevant in the lexicon of American history. Maybe my suggestion is just the nudge it needs to stay there.

Or maybe I’m completely out of my mind.

A Post About NBA’s Schedule Suspension- A Shocked Sports Fan’s Perspective

I am so frustrated right now.

Some of what I am about to say might come off as short-sighted or selfish, I understand that. I want to make it fully known that I totally understand and ultimately accept the decision that the NBA has made tonight.

NBA games are officially suspended following the conclusion of tonight’s play due to the COVID 19 coronavirus outbreak. Utah Jazz Center and Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert has contracted the disease, likely a major impetus for this decision.

Clearly, some things are more important than sports.

Its only been a few months, but I think writing in this space has given me a new appreciation for how enthusiastic I am about these children’s games that are so embedded in our culture: I have watched, followed, read about them, listened to them or about them, and crafted my own thoughts and opinions with new vigor. It really hit me while I was writing my piece on Kobe Bryant’s tragic death, and really, its hitting me again today.

Starting tomorrow, there’s no NBA games to watch. There are totally supposed to be NBA games to watch, but there aren’t. LeBron isn’t coming to town on Friday. Who knows how long this will last? There might not be a Finals this year.

And now that the NBA has come to this decision they may have set a precedent. NCAA March Madness is already planning a spectator-less tournament as well. Will they cancel altogether? Will the MLB and NHL follow suit now and suspend operations? Are we all doomed to be sports-less for the foreseeable future? Am I really not going to have my games and teams to watch on the regular? And I thought my YouTube TV debacle was bad!

Clearly, some things are way more important than sports.

I had already begun to become annoyed by the pervasive media coverage about this disease. Yahoo.com is my homepage on my PC. The first 8 articles on their main page are corona-related.

Allow me to be clear, informing people is of the utmost importance. The news should absolutely be reporting and providing coverage.

Its been everywhere. Its dominated headlines. Its dominated work meetings and idle chatter around the workplace. Its dominated phone calls and conversations with friends and family. Its dominated our ability to go out in public without having to think you might catch a disease.

And now personally, its come for what is easily one of my favorite, pleasant distractions on this Earth, trying to strike a resounding blow against the cultural institution that is American professional athletics. I absolutely can’t stand it. I don’t want it to be the case. I want the show to go on!

Clearly, some things are way, way more important than sports.

I don’t know what else to say. I know its temporary. I know its the right thing to do. I know its for the benefit and safety of the players, staffs, and general public at large for this hiatus to happen. Maybe it would be better if I knew the full plan. If the MLB and NHL just made announcements one way or another on the status of their schedules. that would be great. If NBA Commissioner Adam Silver came out tonight and said the league will start back up next November, at least we would have closure. Unfortunately, diseases labeled pandemics by the World Health Organization don’t work on a schedule and coordinate with their potential victims. They don’t negotiate and they don’t collectively bargain.

Truthfully, maybe what’s so unsettling is that we have absolutely no control over any of this except for our own actions. This whole time I’ve been trying to live my life as normally as possible, not letting the news get me out of my routine. Tonight’s news is routine-changing, whether I like it or not.

Clearly, some things are more important than sports… or our routines.

Everyone out there, wash your hands often and thoroughly. Be smart about the time you spend in public. If you have a fever, don’t leave home unless you are going to a doctor. The vast majority of young people out there that contract COVID are going to be just fine, but please mine your elders, both directly or indirectly. You never know who could catch what you have simply on accident.

Simply put, be mindful of what’s to come, both for yourself and those around you. May the largest tragedy you face in this outbreak be that you can’t sit down after a good day’s work and enjoy TNT’s NBA Thursday night.

After all, some things are more important than sports.