The Three At-Bat Minimum: A Crazy Idea to Up Interest in Baseball (its different than the three batter minimum)

A lineup card from Game 6 of the 2017 Word Series. It will all make sense in a second.

Watch enough well-pitched baseball games and eventually you will hear something similar to:

“Mike Clevinger was stellar today, pitching a complete game shut out. He allowed just one hit and one walk over 9 innings, but was the benefactor of two double play balls. He faced the minimum.”

“The minimum.” For those that may not already know, the minimum refers to the fact that at the very least a baseball team will bat through its lineup three times during a nine inning game. The context above is when you will currently here about it; when a pitcher completes a game in such a way that he faces no more hitters than may be required, but does not pitch a perfect game. You can also hear that the pitcher faced “x number of hitters more than the minimum”, usually to emphasize he didn’t face that many more.

I have an idea that I think could potentially make baseball a more popular game in America, and it focuses around this idea of “the minimum”.

Before I go any further, I want to be very clear. If baseball were a political spectrum I would likely be considered a baseball moderate. I love that the American League and National League deviate on the designated hitter rule. I enjoy that baseball has unwritten rules that so many find to be antiquated, but at the same time think the game could sometimes afford to get with the times. There’s nothing wrong with some moderate show-boating on a home run, but at the same time, I understand if the pitcher feels a certain type of way about said show-boating.

What I am about to suggest is far from a moderate point of view. I like the rule I am about to propose theoretically, but might feel differently in practice. Its radical, but I think its worthy of suggestion despite the fact that I am still also work-shopping it as a concept. At this point, I want to reveal it even though maybe I’m still not fully confident in it.

As of this season, whenever this season happens to start, we will have a three batter minimum for pitchers. As such, pitchers are required to pitch until they at least face three batters, or the inning ends, except in cases of injury. What I suggest today is the three at bat minimum.

Currently, Rule 6.01 of the MLB rule book reads as follows:

(a) Each player of the offensive team shall bat in the order that his name appears in his team’s batting order.

(b) The first batter in each inning after the first inning shall be the player whose name follows that of the last player who legally completed his time at bat in the preceding inning.

I suggest we change the rule to what is below. The actual changes are in bold.

(a) Each player of the offensive team shall bat in the order that his name appears in his team’s batting order. For a minimum of three trips through the batting order.

(b) The first batter in each inning after the first inning shall be the player whose name follows that of the last player who legally completed his time at bat in the preceding inning for the same three trips, after which the offensive team may create a new batting order for any subsequent inning. This order may be altered on an inning by inning basis.

To put it more clearly, once a team hits through your batting order three times they may change their batting order to whatever they would like at the beginning of any following inning. A new inning means the opportunity for a new batting order.

I will await the vitriol from baseball fans that are more purist than me. How could I possibly suggest such a thing?

Its a rather quite simple equation of excitement and marketability.

Baseball today finds itself often playing third fiddle to both football and basketball in the United States in terms of popularity. One major reason suggested by fans, players, and experts is that MLB needs to do a much better of job marketing its players. This is true. There are many great talented personalities in this game coming from a wide variety of backgrounds and perspectives. MLB and the players themselves could do well to sell their talent much better than they do today.

I believe though that there is an inherent problem in the game that its more popular brethren don’t contend with. Part of the game itself is its own Achilles heel. A simple comparison will bring it to light.

Game 7 of the 2019 NBA Eastern Conference Semi-finals between the Toronto Raptors and Philadelphia 76ers may have been the best basketball game of last NBA season. In a winner-take-all match-up neither team led by more than 4 points in the last 4:30 seconds of the game and with the exception of a deep 2-point basket by Philadelphia’s JJ Redick (a prolific shooter from deep) and a missed three pointer by Toronto’s Serge Ibaka each shot attempt in the final stretch was taken by an All-Star level player. Stars controlled the close game late. This culminated in the most memorable moment of the season, then Toronto star Kawhi Leonard’s fall-away from the right baseline that hung on the rim for what seemed like eternity before falling through the net. Toronto won in dramatic fashion, 92-90 and would go on to take the Larry O’Brien trophy.

This is the brunt of my argument. Basketball puts itself in a position where when the game is on the line you know the ball is going to a team’s best player. Michael Jordan was made Michael Jordan in part by “the shot”. In short, if there is the possibility for a memorable moment down the stretch, the fans are going to get their money’s worth. The opportunity to make a difference is going to find its way into the hands of the game’s stars. The same can be said for football. If the Kansas City Chiefs are down four points late, best believe the ball is going to be put into the hands of Patrick Maholmes. For better or for worse, the fans get to see greatness work under pressure at every opportunity.

Now imagine if “the shot” never happened because it wasn’t Jordan’s turn to shoot. What if it was Fred VanVleet’s turn to have the ball in his hands for Toronto with the clock running down? What if the Chiefs were required to run the ball every other play? Think about how many memorable moments we would miss if such rules existed. This is how baseball works.

Going into the top of the 9th of Game 6 of the 2017 World Series the Los Angeles Dodgers faced elimination at the hands of the Houston Astros. The Dodgers led 3-1 that night as the Astros took their last turn at bat from Chavez Ravine with the bottom third of their order, including the pitcher’s spot due up. Rather than have the privilege of being able to bring the eventual World Series MVP (George Springer), a two time All-Star (Alex Bregman) and reigning Most Valuable Player (Jose Altuve) to the plate, Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen faced Marwin Gonzalez, a utility-player having a career year, Josh Reddick, a defensive-minded outfielder also having a career year, and Carlos Beltran, a 40 year-old pinch-hitter in the last at-bat of his career.

Game 6 0f the 2017 World Series featured no losing team highlights in the 8th or 9th innings of this highlight reel. Would that be the case with the three at bat minimum?

All of the now apparent Astros cheating aside, think about the lost opportunity for baseball that was this 9th inning. The Dodgers, with one of the best closers in the game on the mound were able to avoid facing some of the best hitters in baseball with the tying run on the on-deck circle. This could have been a magic moment of epic proportions for the game of baseball, or at the very least Houston could have increased the drama of the moment by bringing their best to the plate. Instead, the Astros went down without a whimper, even if they would eventually go on to win the Series.

In short, marketing of stars is inherent in basketball and football. In baseball it isn’t. The three at bat minimum would both use the game to promote its stars and manufacture the type of drama that could bring more interest to both its biggest stages and random evening games in June.

Yes, there is a bit of inherent democracy in the way baseball is currently played, and yes, there is value to that. I am not suggesting this concept is something that should be absolutely abolished and that is the reason why teams would wait until they have hit through their order three times to re-start their lineups. Everyone still gets at least three at bats. This allows us to avoid a ridiculous amount of stat-padding that would entirely throw statistics out of whack in comparison to historical context, and would still cause managers to have to weigh offensive value against defensive prowess for their starting lineup.

In relation to the pitcher’s spot in the National League, I think that while the rule should not require the starting pitcher to hit three times, it would require a pitcher in general to hit three times. This, along with the fact that a team will more often want to save its best relievers for late in games, will encourage managers to have their starting pitchers pitch deeper into games. Not only will this increase the profile of prolific starting pitchers, it will also keep the continual parade of fire-throwing middle relievers from turning the game into a slog, and will increase offense. Further, offense will also be inherently increased by having the games best hitters hit more often. If offense really is tied to fan interest, we will ultimately prove it this way.

Additionally, with relief pitching becoming more prominent over the past five decades, defenses have benefited from specialization. We have seen that advantage continue to increase over time while the rules have continued to restrict offense. Rather than secretly juice the ball or players, what better way to even the playing field and draw more attention to your game than ensure the best players hit with the game on the line? The average MLB game last season saw about 38 plate appearances per team. With 27 being “the minimum” that would suggest that teams could start re-ordering lineups in the 7th inning on most occasions. Good offensive play would provide more opportunities and and poor play lead to less.

Lastly, strategy, which is always worshiped by baseball purists, could also see an increase under this new system.

Its the 8th inning and your team is down by 1 run. Do you send your best three sluggers to the plate and hope just one of them can run into a pitch over the middle of the plate? Do you send your best on base guy to the plate to lead off and try to get him around the bases? Do you have your speedster lead off and try to wreak havoc? What if you are the team nursing that one run lead? Then what strategy do you use for insurance runs? What does the opposing team try to do with their pitching in order to counteract these varying lineups? How important is alternating left handed and right handed batters in these late inning situations? What about bigger deficits? What provides the best opportunity to come back from three runs down? The questions barely have an end!

I understand this is a big change to implement that alters a large part of the spirit of baseball, but a change of this magnitude isn’t unprecedented. Another bat and ball sport, cricket, created a variation of itself, Twenty20, in the face of complaints about its pacing. The changes have made faced much popular fanfare all over the globe. Also, basketball has toyed with the “Elam Ending”, even having this year’s NBA All-Star game not end based on an arbitrary clock, but by playing three timed quarters and then playing the fourth quarter until a predetermined score is exceeded. It received rave reviews.

This could be baseball’s opportunity to modernize itself while still keeping its soul. This is the opportunity for Mike Trout to reach his full potential as an American sports mega-star. This is the opportunity for starting pitchers and closers all around the game to make themselves into some of the biggest names in the league. Interest abounds in this 3 at bat minimum rule.

One hundred years ago in the wake of the Black Sox scandal, Babe Ruth revolutionized baseball by becoming the first player to try to drive the ball in the air and hit home runs. This game has always evolved with the times, and kept itself relevant in the lexicon of American history. Maybe my suggestion is just the nudge it needs to stay there.

Or maybe I’m completely out of my mind.

A Post About NBA’s Schedule Suspension- A Shocked Sports Fan’s Perspective

I am so frustrated right now.

Some of what I am about to say might come off as short-sighted or selfish, I understand that. I want to make it fully known that I totally understand and ultimately accept the decision that the NBA has made tonight.

NBA games are officially suspended following the conclusion of tonight’s play due to the COVID 19 coronavirus outbreak. Utah Jazz Center and Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert has contracted the disease, likely a major impetus for this decision.

Clearly, some things are more important than sports.

Its only been a few months, but I think writing in this space has given me a new appreciation for how enthusiastic I am about these children’s games that are so embedded in our culture: I have watched, followed, read about them, listened to them or about them, and crafted my own thoughts and opinions with new vigor. It really hit me while I was writing my piece on Kobe Bryant’s tragic death, and really, its hitting me again today.

Starting tomorrow, there’s no NBA games to watch. There are totally supposed to be NBA games to watch, but there aren’t. LeBron isn’t coming to town on Friday. Who knows how long this will last? There might not be a Finals this year.

And now that the NBA has come to this decision they may have set a precedent. NCAA March Madness is already planning a spectator-less tournament as well. Will they cancel altogether? Will the MLB and NHL follow suit now and suspend operations? Are we all doomed to be sports-less for the foreseeable future? Am I really not going to have my games and teams to watch on the regular? And I thought my YouTube TV debacle was bad!

Clearly, some things are way more important than sports.

I had already begun to become annoyed by the pervasive media coverage about this disease. Yahoo.com is my homepage on my PC. The first 8 articles on their main page are corona-related.

Allow me to be clear, informing people is of the utmost importance. The news should absolutely be reporting and providing coverage.

Its been everywhere. Its dominated headlines. Its dominated work meetings and idle chatter around the workplace. Its dominated phone calls and conversations with friends and family. Its dominated our ability to go out in public without having to think you might catch a disease.

And now personally, its come for what is easily one of my favorite, pleasant distractions on this Earth, trying to strike a resounding blow against the cultural institution that is American professional athletics. I absolutely can’t stand it. I don’t want it to be the case. I want the show to go on!

Clearly, some things are way, way more important than sports.

I don’t know what else to say. I know its temporary. I know its the right thing to do. I know its for the benefit and safety of the players, staffs, and general public at large for this hiatus to happen. Maybe it would be better if I knew the full plan. If the MLB and NHL just made announcements one way or another on the status of their schedules. that would be great. If NBA Commissioner Adam Silver came out tonight and said the league will start back up next November, at least we would have closure. Unfortunately, diseases labeled pandemics by the World Health Organization don’t work on a schedule and coordinate with their potential victims. They don’t negotiate and they don’t collectively bargain.

Truthfully, maybe what’s so unsettling is that we have absolutely no control over any of this except for our own actions. This whole time I’ve been trying to live my life as normally as possible, not letting the news get me out of my routine. Tonight’s news is routine-changing, whether I like it or not.

Clearly, some things are more important than sports… or our routines.

Everyone out there, wash your hands often and thoroughly. Be smart about the time you spend in public. If you have a fever, don’t leave home unless you are going to a doctor. The vast majority of young people out there that contract COVID are going to be just fine, but please mine your elders, both directly or indirectly. You never know who could catch what you have simply on accident.

Simply put, be mindful of what’s to come, both for yourself and those around you. May the largest tragedy you face in this outbreak be that you can’t sit down after a good day’s work and enjoy TNT’s NBA Thursday night.

After all, some things are more important than sports.

The Roller-Coaster That Is Just Trying to Watch Your Team’s Games in 2020

I breathed a really big sigh of relief Thursday night. After much trepidation caused by the roller-coaster that has become Major League Baseball broadcast rights, I found out yesterday that I will indeed be able to watch my Cleveland Indians play baseball on television this season.

Allow me to explain.

Like many (especially younger) people, I don’t have cable in my household. However, unlike some in my demographic, I still find the value in being able to tap into live television. Its absolutely imperative for the sports fan, of course, but further, I legitimately still enjoy the idea of being able to turn on a device and find something airing that I hadn’t considered in advance. (“Oh, look… reruns of Law and Order are on, I’ll put them on while I make dinner…” you get the idea).

Regardless, I continue my foray as a consumer of traditional television now by holding a subscription to YouTube TV. This is after previously having subscribed to the now defunct Sony platform, PlayStation Vue. Sony pulled the plug on at the end of this past January and also sold rights to YouTube TV to advertise to old Vue subscribers. Sony then put together an app that allows YouTube TV to run from my PlayStation 4. Beyond this, my own research suggested that YouTube TV was the most comparable service on the market to my beloved Vue, and I decided to try it out. Its been quite adequate over the month or so that I have had it, but probably a half of a notch lesser quality than Vue was. Overall, things seemed like smooth sailing. I’ve got all the channels I need and more at a comparable price and my wife is happy with our selection too. All is hunky-dory.

Even more recently however, I found out that Sinclair Broadcast Group, who bought every Fox Regional Sports Network in a transaction with Disney not but 8 months ago, had failed to renew their partnership with YouTube TV. This includes both Fox Sportstime Ohio and Fox Sports Ohio, home of the Indians and Cleveland Cavaliers, respectively (and Columbus Blue Jackets and Cincinnati Reds for those in that market). My chances of watching either team suddenly looked dashed. All this time and effort put into figuring out what service to select, based on price point and freedom of choice? Wasted. The deadline date came and went. Some disgruntled users presumably canceled their YouTube TV subscriptions. Or at least threatened to. I decided to assess my options but be patient. These things can work themselves out sometimes after all, and long story short, they did. In the process there was quite the scare for users that included running past the expiration date, figuring out a temporary extension to the current agreement and then finally coming to a new deal Thursday, that admittedly still leaves out 2 Regional channels in New York and Los Angeles. For me at least, all’s well that ends well, but I could’ve done without the drama.

The fact of the matter is, when it comes to these type of television distribution deals, don’t expect the drama to go away anytime soon. Since I was a child I remember seeing running crawls on NFL games about how I need to call my cable company and make sure I don’t miss out on getting to watch my local team. Fans and viewers have always been beholden to the leagues and their distributors and I don’t see that changing. In fact, I see it getting worse. Why? One word: streaming.

Streaming is supposed to be the great game-changer. Netflix, Hulu and the like have changed the world of television. They have given us more high-quality choices for a manageable price and they done it in a way that’s convenient for the viewer. Its an incredible business plan.

For sports, streaming is just one more variable that the leagues can bargain against their other distributors in order to raise their leverage. Most people would welcome the ease of access that could come with a streaming option for their favorite teams. I’m just not so sure its going to work that way. I look at the way that the leagues are currently delving into digital streaming as a perfect example of why.

The NFL is the only remaining American sport that has nearly all of its games on the major local networks. Other than ESPN’s Monday Night Football, and a handful of Thursday Night games on the NFL Network, if you want to see the NFL you can find it with something a simple as an antenna. In return, the NFL is a ratings goldmine for the networks as well. Its the most watched sport in America. It partially keeps CBS propped up as the country’s most watch network. The NFL isn’t leaving TV any time soon. That much is clear.

However, the NFL does stream certain prime-time games through Amazon. The league isn’t convinced that the tech companies are ready for a full slated schedule, but naturally there’s another pot of money to be made in streaming rights, so expect this access to grow, but grow slowly. The fact of the matter is that if you want to stream the NFL you can… as long as its a select game that you may or may not have interest in. You’re better off not wasting your money and just watching on television, hoping that the NFL doesn’t end up making certain games stream-exclusives like MLB has in the past.

Which brings us to MLB. Manfred and co. have actually opened up the ability for the teams themselves to sell their own in-market streaming rights. This is a great step forward for a league that is generally behind the times, however the outlook isn’t entirely rosy. Out of market games will still require an MLB.tv subscription, a great service if you happen to not live within shouting distance of your favorite team, but otherwise usually fairly uninspiring. MLB has instructed teams to treat their streaming rights like they treat their broadcast rights; essentially decentralized. The Indians could decide they want to stream their audio broadcasts through Spotify, while the Athletics could (and actually have) decided to stream their radio broadcasts through their own audio station. The Orioles could decide they want Amazon to stream their video broadcasts. You get the idea.

But what does this all lead to? If I want to just watch the Indians, maybe I will be able to stream them. It would be a subscription of some sort that I can pay for and access at my leisure. But, that’s assuming the Indians decide to stream video. Its also known that teams are going to have to negotiate with their Regional Sports Networks to adjust their respective contracts since the TV networks won’t be getting every single eyeball anymore. Maybe some teams will strike deals with their current RSNs and keep their streaming services behind paywalls still tied to cable (like the Fox Sports Go app). There’s no guarantee we will be able to pay one flat rate for one small subscription to watch our one favorite team. That’s not to mention that watching out of market will still be tied to MLB.tv for hundreds of dollars, or will still require cable (or an additional streaming service) to watch the Saturday Game of the Week or Sunday Night Baseball on Fox or ESPN.

The point I am trying to make here is that the lack of uniformity in the strategy to move to streaming is going to create more trouble than its worth. If I want to watch Netflix’s Stranger Things, I don’t have to tune into CBS to watch episode 1 and Netflix for episodes 2 through 5 and then a regional network that might get taken off my cable package at any moment to see the remaining episodes. I go to just 1 place and all that I could want is there for me, and more.

Music is another perfect example of this. The music streaming industry has been panned for exclusivity deals between artists and services. Its an incredible technology, but it reaches its true peak when there aren’t business restrictions involved. That’s how streaming (and really, the internet) is supposed to work, and that’s how these sports leagues are likely to botch it. This mistake won’t harm themselves though, they are going to make money hand over fist through their new media but for us- their fans, we will suffer.

The only chance we have (well, 2… the XFL is crazy enough that they might get this right too) is the NBA. They’ve already delved into streaming in some minor, but significant ways. USA Basketball’s run through the 2019 FIBA World Championships was hosted on two web services: ESPN+ and Twitch.tv. Twitch has hosted G-League games as well and is the home of the NBA’s 2K E-Sport league. For those particular products, there’s been no splitting of distribution through completely different services or mediums. Further, the NBA recently signed on with DAZN for its Spanish broadcast rights, leaving a 25-year partnership with Telefonica , a Spanish telecommunications group, in the process. They have immersed themselves face first in a streaming service, and while it wasn’t in America, everyone knows the NBA takes its international footprint very seriously.

The icing on the cake is Commissioner Adam Silver speaking to podcaster and writer Bill Simmons at the 2019 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference and talking directly about a direct to consumer streaming option for the league’s future (the entire interview is below and really worth a listen, streaming information is around 1:01:00 mark). Silver directly mentions the idea of being able to log online and buy particular games, or even particular quarters or waning minutes of games for a flat rate. If you want to watch Cavs vs. Bucks in full, go for it! You’ll probably be able to subscribe to it. If you get done with that contest and you notice Pacers-Bulls is a close game down the stretch, the final 5 minutes can be accessed for say, $1.99. Maybe you can buy a bigger subscription package with access to more games as well. The potential is there, and Silver is publicly talking about the opportunities at his disposal. This is promising, but will take time. The NBA’s television deal with Turner and ESPN doesn’t end until 2023, and the NBA has local television rights taken care of by the team themselves, who knows if they will balk the idea of losing their deals.

Lastly, the NHL will be the first proving ground here, but they likely won’t be a very good one. Their television deal ends with NBC in 2021, but they have yet to really delve into digital streaming at all. Their first step is probably to take a page out of the NFL’s book and start streaming some prime-time affairs. Beyond that, there isn’t much movement.

The NFL will come quickly after them though, and that will be the first true test of how the era of new media will really fair in sports. If any of these leagues can nail it by simplifying and creating convenience for their consumer they stand to make a huge impression on fans old and especially new. Its not a surprise the most popular league with young people is positioned best to take the reigns, but still I’m not sure any of these leagues can look past that next big pay day enough to do what’s best for their fans as well as themselves.

Until then, at least I know I can watch my Tribe and Cavs for now, but not everyone else is that lucky.

Historical Context: Sports, the Coronavirus and What Looms Next

The year is 1918.

At this point in our history, World War I has waged on in Europe for four years.

Individuals destined for myriad versions of fame, such as actress Rita Hayworth, businessman and founder of Wal-Mart Sam Walton, and historical and inspirational leader Nelson Mandela are born.

The now world-famous Cleveland Orchestra is established and the dollar paid to see them perform was worth 17 times more than it is today.

And on March 4th of this very year the influenza epidemic that would go on to kill between 40 and 50 million people recorded its first American victim in Kansas. Just a week later the virus had been diagnosed in Queens, New York. Its spread was undeniable.

And yet, on April 15th , 1918 Babe Ruth climbed on top of the mound at Fenway Park and pitched the Boston Red Sox to a 1-0 Complete Game Shut Out Victory over the Philadelphia Athletics. That contest took less than 2 hours to play and was witnessed by 7,180 fans. It was the first game of the 1918 baseball season.

Ruth would lead Boston in WAR that year, and it would be the last time for 86 years that the World Series Championship would belong to the Red Sox.

In between Opening Day and the Red Sox ascension as champions, both the war and the rampant disease took a toll on the sport. An agreement was made to shorten the regular season by 14 games, and the World Series was slated to run from September 5th thru 14th , well before both Germany’s formal surrender (November 11, 1918) and the first spike of American deaths from the Spanish flu in October and November. While the importance of the sacrifice made by the world’s armed forces should never be forgotten, our focus from hereon will be on the impact of the Spanish flu.

Baseball lost many former minor and major leaguers to the epidemic while it ran its brutal course, among other individuals of significance. The pastime’s biggest loss from the Spanish flu would come just after its first fatal peak. Umpire Silk O’Laughlin, a veteran of 5 World Series and crew chief for the 1917 Series between the Chicago White Sox and New York Giants would pass away on December 20th. He had worked the regular season just three months previous.

Meanwhile, just one day later a little, 3-team hockey operation now known as the National Hockey League would open up their second season of operation on December 21st despite the passing of Ottawa defense-man Hamby Shore in October. He had been the NHL’s first loss to the disease.

The NHL played 18 games per team that season despite having planned to play 20. This however, was one twist of fate that had nothing to do with the matters of life and death that had been occurring around the globe. Rather, the instability of the Toronto Arenas franchise led to their own inability to complete the season. The cease of their operations shortened their schedule as well as the schedules of the league’s other 2 teams to 18 games.

Still, the show would go on and NHL Champion Montreal would take on the Pacific Coast Hockey Association’s Seattle Metropolitans for the Stanley Cup in late March of 1919. The “first to three wins” series was a fascinating one that was hosted entirely in Seattle and showcased the different rules of both leagues during the contests. Oddly, Seattle led the series 2-1 after 4 games after Game 4 ended in a tie. Game 5 was played on March 30th and despite the fact the Canadiens tied the series at 2 games a piece, it would be the last game of an undecided series.

Game 6 was canceled as the epidemic had taken hold of members of both teams, the news coming literally hours before puck-drop. In the end, Montreal defense-man Joe Hall would surrender to the flu he caught during the series. He passed away on April 5, 1919 just 5 days after both diagnosis and preparing himself for Game 6. Sadly their would be one more casualty from the 1919 Stanley Cup, Canadiens manager Joe Kennedy would also pass two years later from complications of the disease that never subsisted.

Credit to “The Hockey Guy” on Youtube

Despite all this, the 1919 baseball season went on, and is best known not for the epidemic that ravaged the country, but for being the year of the Black Sox scandal. Over time, the Spanish Flu came to pass and now is another era in history, but the people of the time, and the lessons that can be learned from them should not be forgotten.

This is all very relevant today. On just Saturday, Washington State officials announced the first confirmed American death from the Wuhan Corona-virus. To date, there are just over 3000 deaths worldwide from the disease (and counting), which is a far cry from the unabashed potency of Spanish Influenza, but regardless, questions arise. There is an absolute public health risk potentially right at our doorstep. Certain decisions, and possibly sacrifices, may need to be made for the utility of all people.

For this reason, Nippon Professional Baseball, Japan’s major baseball league, has announced that it plans to play their remainder of its preseason games sans-spectators. This comes after both Japan Rugby Football has announced the cancellation of league games and J League soccer is halting its schedule until at least March 15th. The Olympic Games, expected to be hosted in Tokyo this summer, are now also in question of being canceled.

Naturally, Japan is a lot closer to the origin of this new disease with origins in China, and its people currently have a lot more to lose. However, if this infection is spreading as may be suggested then there are real, genuine questions about the necessity, practicality and safety of continuing professional sports in the United States.

The late 1910s flu epidemic is the closest parallel that I could draw. Yes, all four major American sports have seen their schedules halted since a century ago. The most common causes are due to natural disasters (eg: hurricanes and earthquakes), terrorist attacks (Boston Marathon bombing), or power outages (Game 4 1988 Stanley Cup Finals, see around the 10 minute mark of the video). The difference is that these examples are usually localized postponements. The only time full, nation-wide league schedules have been halted in American sports have been when the NBA temporarily ceased games after the assassination of John F. Kennedy, the September 11th terrorist attacks paused both the MLB and NFL schedules, and when any of the four leagues have had their own labor disputes. Baseball, and less famously hockey, even continued during World War II.

All of this context brings us here to today. And to be fair, I’m not sure what the answer is. Baseball was a much beloved distraction during four of the hardest years in this country’s history. There is genuine value in that and its important that people continue to live their lives as best as they can when times get hard. That’s one of the benefits of living in a free society. All four American sports would provide a much needed sense of business as usual, and a dependable coping mechanism in a situation where this disease really becomes a threat.

However, the world is smaller today than its ever been. Cross-continental flights are a regularity. NBA players play back-to-back games in 2 different cities routinely. The 7000+ fans that saw Opening Day at Fenway Park in 1918 were less than 4 times fewer than the number that came to the ball-yard on an average night in 2019. They also likely didn’t travel from as far away as they would today. Further and most importantly, players and officials did indeed lose their lives over 100 years ago. Perhaps the times allowed for that to be a little more acceptable then. Today it absolutely wouldn’t be. Blood would be on the hands of the league officials and ownership that decided the game should go on.

A third option would be to play games without spectators. This would keep the general public safe and allow for the number of people needing to be checked limited. Modern technology allows for better sports viewing from the comfort of your own home than from the field or arena anyway. Not much outside of the all-mighty dollar, would be lost from this set up.

Ultimately, it is for the leagues to decide, and they will have quite the decision on their hands. I don’t want to see any games go away more than anyone else, and I wonder what the prospective Players’ Unions will have to say about having their players potentially put at risk. You would have to figure, is Chris Paul any more likely to pick up the corona-virus in a mostly empty arena than he is to pick it up along with his dry-cleaning?

I’m leaning towards the third option, something Italian soccer league Serie A is already trying. Let the players play, with the understanding that every effort will be made to enhance their safety. If they balk at this premise though, I would totally understand and accept that. At that point, this whole scenario will have to be reconsidered.

Mostly though, let’s just hope that this is nothing more than unnecessary speculation that will never have to come to pass. The history will hopefully remain the only reminder we have of a different time. A time where at least one game was played with medical masks in use.

Richmond Newspaper Article about Minor League Baseball game played in medical masks

Hopefully, for the memories of those like O’Laughlin, Shore, Hall and Kennedy among countless others, never again.

Cavs and Bickerstaff Are the Best Opportunity for Each Other

Well, we can’t say it hasn’t gotten off to a good start. After the not so shocking, yet still abrupt dismissal of Cavaliers Head Coach John Beilein over the course of the All-Star break, the Cavaliers were back in action last night for the first time in a week. They prevailed with a 113-108 victory over the Washington Wizards.

One immediate positive to take away from this contest was that the victory came in a tightly contested game, something the Cavaliers hadn’t done since a January 9th overtime triumph in Detroit. The Cavs did well last night to not squander what was just a 3-point lead with around 2 minutes left.

Maybe, just maybe, there is reason to have hope for the JB Bickerstaff era.

Sure, there is the slight stench of nepotism when you consider that his father is currently Senior Basketball Executive for the Cavs, but sources state that Bickerstaff was hired at the discretion of General Manager Koby Altman for just such an occasion where things didn’t work out with Beilein.

Sure, his career record as a head coach coming into last night was 85-131, good for a .394 winning percentage, but he did go 37-34 as the interim head coach of the Houston Rockets in 2015-2016. That team made the playoffs and had the 7th best Offensive Rating in basketball, despite the 2nd best offensive player on that team being post-Orlando Dwight Howard.

Yes, going from interim head coach to full-time chief of the Memphis Grizzlies over the past two seasons wasn’t nearly as fruitful, and its looks even more troubling when the Griz now hover around .500 with the potential possibility of a Western Conference playoff birth. A lot of that sudden improvement can be attributed to star rookie point guard Ja Morant, but the development of players around him should not be taken lightly either, and part of that certainly happened under the Cavaliers new coach.

Still, what must be acknowledged is what Bickerstaff’s true objective will be here in Cleveland, and that is to nurture and development a core of young talent. For better or for worse, this is essentially uncharted territory for him.

Bickerstaff has been an NBA head coach for portions of three different seasons; they are with the aforementioned 2015-2016 Rockets, as well as the 2017-2018 and ’18-’19 Grizzlies. In that time he has coached merely 2 players that have been both the age of 25 or younger, as well as picked in the top half of the first round of the NBA Draft.

One of those players is guard Ben McLemore, who was in his 5th professional season while on the ’17-’18 Grizzlies after having been the 7th overall pick by the Sacramento Kings in 2013. Memphis signed him as a reclamation project after 4 uninspiring campaigns with the Kings, but unfortunately, it didn’t work out with the Griz either. He averaged just 7.5 Points Per Game and less than 1 Assist in his only season in Memphis. It wasn’t until this season that McLemore has finally shown signs of life while coming off the bench for Houston..

The other qualifying player is power forward Jaren Jackson, who Memphis took 4th overall in the 2018 Draft. He scored 13.8 Points Per Game on a surprisingly efficient 59.1% True Shooting Percentage as a 19 year old in his rookie season under Bickerstaff. He has also continued to see the development to his scoring game this season, shooting with the exact same efficiency, but while taking more shots, leading him to 17.1 PPG. I don’t think its unfair to suggest that Bickerstaff’s tutelage last year may have at least put him in the right position to continue to succeed.

The remainder of the draft picks and other young players that Bickerstaff has coached have been a cavalcade of marginal G-Leaguer/reserve list types that haven’t seen much of the floor with few exceptions. Names like Andrew Harrison, Ivan Rabb and Jarrell Martin come to mind. Grizzlies wing Dillon Brooks is likely the best of this bunch, averaging 15.4 PPG as a starter for Memphis this season after missing most of 2018-2019. Its hard to say how much impact Bickerstaff had on his development.

He did also coach 2nd year center Clint Capela and rookie big man Montrezl Harrell in Houston. Capela got his first chance to be part of a legitimate rotation under Bickerstaff, and admittedly didn’t fair especially well, putting up the worse per 36 Minute numbers of his career in any season that he played full-time. As a reminder though, this was his also his first season with legitimate NBA minutes. Conversely, Harrell didn’t see much of the floor at all.

Beyond these names, Bickerstaff hasn’t been able to guide many young players of a high pedigree. Houston took Sam Dekker 18th overall in 2015 and took Harrell in the 2nd round of that same summer. Dekker would go on to miss most of his rookie season with injuries and still hasn’t amounted to much around the league. Before Bickerstaff’s ascension in 2017, Memphis took guard Wade Baldwin 17th overall in 2016. Baldwin lasted 1 season in Memphis before being traded, and has barely been heard from since. Meanwhile, Memphis didn’t even have a 1st round pick in 2017, as it had been traded to Cleveland 4 years earlier (for forward Jon Leuer, yikes!).

My point is this: previous to his time in Cleveland, Bickerstaff had been given just one, young talent that was anything close to a sure-fire prospect. Yes, Capela became Capela after Bickerstaff left Houston, but Capela praised him in their time together. Yes, he never really gave Harrell an opportunity. It should be remembered that the 2015-2016 Rockets were expected to compete, not develop young players.

The fact is that the one legitimate prospect that Bickerstaff got his hands on in his previous coaching tenures: Jackson, is performing pretty well thus far.

On the other hand, this Cavaliers team alone has two players under the age of 22 that were taken in the top half of the first round of the draft (guards Collin Sexton and Darius Garland, of course). It has three under 25 if you include guard Dante Exum, who was taken 5th overall by Utah in 2014. Swing-man Kevin Porter Jr. may have been taken at the end of the first round, but he was voted biggest steal of this past year’s draft by his peers as well. This is easily the most young talent Bickerstaff has ever worked with and this is his chance to prove himself to be a capable talent developer. Consider the fact that another lottery pick is likely coming this summer and he is clearly better positioned today than he ever was in Memphis and has the chops of past stints both as an assistant and head coach to not fall into some of the same traps that his predecessors have. He even has a history of coaching veterans like Trevor Ariza and Howard from when he was in Houston, meaning the experienced members of this oddly constructed Cavalier roster won’t necessarily feel shut out either.

I’m not here to say that the Cavaliers front office has definitely found their man and we can start setting aside money for playoff tickets in 2021, but I think at the very least there is a more reasonable pathway to growth for this young Cavaliers’ squad today than there was just 2 weeks ago.

For JB Bickerstaff, this is his chance. It might be his last one, but it also might be his best one.

MLB Caps off a Disappointing Off-Season with Questionable Rule Changes and Proposals

With the one exception of the Houston Astros organization still appearing classless, its been a week of change for Major League Baseball. On Wednesday, the league announced the full brunt of rule changes that will be a part of play for this coming season. They are, in to particular order:

  1. The 25-man roster is now the 26-man roster. Teams can have 26 players on their regular roster, but there is a limit of 13 pitchers. An additional man can still be added for double-headers.
  2. The September roster now only expands to 28 players, not 40.
  3. Players that pitch at least 20 innings AND play 20 games as a position player or DH with at least 3 at bats in those games are eligible to be named as a “Two Way Player” that will not count against your thirteen pitchers, but may pitch. The Angels’ Shohei Ohtani or Reds’ Michael Lorenzo are prime examples of this type of player.
  4. Position players may only pitch if a game is in extra innings or their team is winning or losing by more than six runs.
  5. All pitchers must face at least 3 batters, or complete an inning before removal from the game, excepting injury or illness.
  6. Pitchers now have a 15-Day Injured List while position players will remain on the 10-Day IL.

Beyond this, MLB also had a, totally-not-meant-to-distract-from-the-Astros-press-conference “leak” occur about a new proposed playoff format. This format suggests that seven teams from each league make the playoffs. The team with the best record gets a first round bye, leaving six remaining teams to face each other. The two remaining division winners and the top wild-card team (teams ranked 2 thru 4) then get the chance to host a first round three game series versus teams seeded 5 thru 7. However, the two division winners would get to choose their opponents from the remaining three teams and would do so on television on the final night of the season after all games have ended.

The first round would be a set of three game series with all games hosted by the team with the better record. Completion of that round would lead to four remaining teams who would then play out the rest of the playoffs in the format we are familiar with from the end of the ’94 strike to 2011 with an LDS, LCS and World Series.

Where to begin? Lets start with rule changes.

Major League Baseball has just found new and exciting ways to take more and more of the power to innovate or make decisions out of the field manager’s hands. In a league where teams are becoming more and more cookie-cutter. In a time where advanced analytics have made it so that every single team thinks they have to play the exact same way- this abysmal all or nothing brand of baseball that now pervades the game. When we are ever so certain there is one and only one proper way to devise your batting order, we have just found more ways to make the field manager completely useless.

Teams have been given benefit of an additional roster spot but only if they use it a certain way. If newly named Royals manager, Mike Matheny really wants to roll with 16 pitchers and 10 position players, what is the problem with that? He’s not likely going to do it anyway, because he’d be in danger of a serious lack of flexibility to his fielders in case of injury. He would also have to feel super confident he would never need a pinch hitter or pinch runner. There is a built in advantage/disadvantage system from having a roster limit in the first place, what is the need for taking the ability to make nuanced decisions from these teams?

If Yankees reliever Adam Ottavino steps to the mound against the Angels in a 3-2 game in the 8th, and immediately walks Max Stassi and Tommy LaStella, why must he be required to face Mike Trout? This feels like a perfectly good time to remove him and use one of the other league-mandated, perfectly good 7 relief pitchers in the bullpen. For some reason, Rob Manfred doesn’t want that.

Why?!?! Pace of play? So the game can be 2 hours and 55 minutes long instead of 3 hours and 2 minutes long? Is that REALLY going to make some 15 year old in Los Angeles or Louisiana all that much more interested in watching baseball?

If baseball was really serious about improving the pace of play, they would literally put their money where their mouth is and sacrifice some of their ad revenue to get the game moving faster. No commercial breaks between half innings would be a good start. So would enforcing the “batter keeps 1 foot in the box” rule that they pretend to enforce in one April out of every five years. They can’t afford to do that though, because you might not get to see the most recent Taco Bell stat overlay brought to you by Budweiser or the shoehorned live read for the local car dealership before that critical pay-off pitch. Its bad enough that you can’t enjoy any cutaway shot of the stadium without being bombarded with sales.

But they aren’t serious about pace of play. I know they aren’t because none of these changes barely do anything. What Manfred and company are doing is the equivalent of slapping a new coat of paint on a 2005 Mitsubishi. Sure, its looks like you fixed it, but all the problems are still there. Nothing of any genuine substance has been attempted.

As for this playoff system, I don’t believe its even a legitimate proposal. I think this was partially a negotiation tactic on Manfred’s part, as described by Reds’ pitcher Trevor Bauer’s agent, Rachel Luba. The timing though is purposeful, floated out the night before the Astros quasi-apologetic press conference in order to try to distract from the current fracas at hand. It fails, both as a distraction and an idea. In no way are multiple days off a benefit to a baseball team. Giving the team with the best record time off in a game that requires rhythm and routine is a detriment. You would think the Baseball Commissioner’s Office would have a clue on what might or might not be beneficial to a baseball team.

Beyond that, not everything has to be a reality show. Having a TV show for the 2nd and 3rd place teams to pick their opponent is asinine. This is a league that has to play some of their playoff games on their own network; a network that isn’t even on most basic cable packages. MLB suddenly thinks they can shop this reality show around to major networks? With their lack of media savvy, it will probably end up at midnight Monday morning on MLB Network.

And the benefit for all this? Just to make the 5 thru 7 seed teams angry enough to come out and try to beat the pants off their opponents. If the 2nd and 3rd place teams are smart they will just announce they are playing the 7 and 6 seeds respectively because that’s how things would line up with normal seeding. No big statements. No pageantry. Just a low profile announcement so you don’t anger your first round opponent. Let me tell you… that would make for amazing television!

Lets not forget the World Series barely fits into October as it is. Game 7 of the World Series last year was on October 30th. This year the season is starting on March 26th so that the Series would be ending on the 28th. I know the planet is getting hotter and hotter, but why do we insist on playing more and more baseball games where the potential for snow is possible? The season is more than long enough as it is. We don’t need an extended first round before the LDS.

Baseball isn’t perfect. Its never been perfect, its likely to never be perfect. Tinkering around the edges isn’t going to lead to perfection. All its going to do is alienate more and more purists that love the game for what its been, while not doing anything to drive interest in youth.

Bauer can explain better than I can how baseball could use its marketable players and the internet to promote itself way better than any of these changes could. Sometimes, the League Office just needs to get out of its own way, or better yet, get a clue.

Digging Slightly Deeper on What’s the “Right Thing” for the Indians- Lindor Part 2

Last week, I spoke on the potential for the Cleveland Indians and Francisco Lindor to come to agreement on a contract extension and what such an extension would look like. At the time, I reached the conclusion that there might be a number out there that is both a reasonable possibility for the Tribe as well as Lindor, based off the context of some of Lindor’s peers. Of course, the one thing I did not consider in this entry was the idea that perhaps Lindor really isn’t interested in an extension at all. There is a chance out there that he has seen the type of dollars that a player like Xander Bogaerts received for his contract extension, compared that to someone like Bryce Harper and decided that he stands to make a lot more money by playing the long game and testing free agency. Mid-contract extensions seem to lead to discounts and it sure seems that Lindor wants to be paid his full worth.

Regardless of all that, there is a question to be asked from the Indians perspective in this. That question: is such a contract extension really worth the price in the long-term for the Indians? For this exercise I will consider the extension figures that I previously used for Lindor. Those terms were 8 years and $192 million for an Average Annual Salary of $24 million.

Let’s start with looking directly at Lindor himself. He will be 26 years old for the entirety of the 2020 season. Over the last three seasons he has accumulated more home runs and runs scored than any other shortstop in baseball.

Only Bogaerts, the Yankees’ Gleyber Torres and Houston’s Carlos Correa have a better weighted Runs Created+ rate (an all encompassing offensive stat from Fangraphs.com, get used to seeing it in this entry) as a shortstop than Lindor over those 3 years. However, Torres has only played 2 seasons, possibly helping his sample. Additionally, Correa has averaged only 98 games played a season, and also has had the aid of the garbage can drum.

Over the same three years Lindor is the second best fielding shortstop in baseball according to Ultimate Zone Rating Per 150 Games with only the great Andrelton Simmons (he might get in the Hall some day off his defense alone) of the Angels being better.

For comparison, Bogaerts ranks 11th with a just barely above average rating of 0.4 (Lindor’s is 9.5 for context). Torres has been an absolute mess at the position. He doesn’t have enough innings under his belt to qualify for Fangraphs’s regular leader-board, coming in with just 811 2/3, or about 90 games worth in 2 seasons. He would rank 21st of 23 candidates if he did qualify with an abysmal -8.1 rating. Correa doesn’t have enough innings to qualify either. His 2547 innings (283 games) over 3 seasons record a UZR/150 of -4.5 which is also below average, and would rank 21st as well if he qualified.

Factor in the fact that over the last 3 seasons Simmons has a below average wRC+ of 99 and Lindor is the clear cut answer to the question “who is the best shortstop in baseball right now?”. I should’ve just given you his WAR number of 17.7 over the last three seasons, mentioned it was nearly 3 wins better than the next closest challenger (Bogaerts) and we could have gone about our lives, but I think all this data drives home a point.

All of this goes to say that right now Lindor deserves to be the highest paid shortstop in baseball and that figure of about $24 million per year would be justified. Factor in that most baseball players peak at 29 or 30 years old and you can then recognize he should have five more seasons before we even begin to sniff a decline. Really, it would not be unthinkable for Lindor to even find one more level to raise his game before we are done. An eight year extension right now would conclude at age 33. The vast majority of that contract should be money well spent.

Still, what sets Lindor apart even more is his ability to embrace being a leader and his absolute exuberance for the game he gets to play every day. He is a star. He is super marketable and the type of ballplayer that would be on the tip of everyone’s tongue every day if he played in New York or Los Angeles.

That however brings us to the other side of this issue. I’ve now spent a lot of time over two different entries defending the idea of Lindor being deserving a boatload of money. Say no more. He is. However, can the Indians afford to put together a sustainable product while also tying so many dollars into just one player, regardless of how talented and exuberant he may be?

Now, I don’t want this to either be either a condemnation nor blind support of the Dolan family. We can argue about whether the Dolans are thrifty, cheap, frugal or Mr. Krabs incarnate until we are blue in the face. For our purposes it won’t matter. Only the facts matter. Cleveland is ranked as the 19th largest media market in the country with 1.37 million homes to count for. There are six other markets in Major League Baseball that are ranked within five places above or below Cleveland. Four of them: Detroit, Minneapolis, Miami and Denver rank above Cleveland. St. Louis and Pittsburgh ran below it.

Of these six teams, three of them have ever signed players to contracts with total values as high as my proposed Lindor deal. All three of them are the teams that rank higher than Cleveland in the media market list: Colorado, Miami and Detroit. Beyond this, St. Louis committed $26 mil per year to first baseman Paul Goldschmidt when they traded for him last winter, but that money is over just five years for a total of $130 million.

Details are below:

Almost one year ago, Colorado signed third baseman Nolan Arenado to a 8 year, $260 million extension ($32.5 AAV). He took up nearly 18% of their payroll last season and while he was productive with a .315 average, 41 homers, 128 wRC+ and 12.0 UZR/150 (tied for best for a 3B in baseball) the Rockies went 71-91 and there are already talks that they need to rid themselves of the burden of Arenado’s contract by trading him.

Miami signed outfielder Giancarlo Stanton to an incredibly lucrative 13 year, $325 million deal ($25 mil AAV) before the 2015 season. He proceeded to hit .265 and average 38 homers with a wRC+ of 145 (good for 5th best outfielder) over the following three seasons. Stanton even hit 59 home runs in 2017 and won the National League MVP that year. But he only averaged 117 games played between 2015 and 2017 and the Marlins never won more than 79 games. They rewarded him for his MVP season by deciding they couldn’t handle the contract, and traded him to the Yankees going into his age 28 campaign.

Detroit has signed two players that meet our criteria. Just before the beginning of the 2014 season the Tigers signed 1st baseman Miguel Cabrera to a 8-year, $248 million extension ($31 million AAV). Cabrera would go on to terrorize American League pitching for three more seasons. He hit .320 from 2014-2016 averaging 27 home runs and recording a 154 wRC+ (2nd best of any 1B). Since 2016 Cabrera hasn’t hit over .300 or parked more than 16 home runs. He’s been below 100 (considered below average) in wRC+ twice in those three seasons and in the season where he was above 100 he only played 38 games. He will take up 32% of the Tigers’ payroll this season on a team that will be lucky to win 65 games. For all their trouble, the Tigers have made the playoffs one time since Cabrera signed this extension.

Contributing to this demise is the other noteworthy Tigers player, Prince Fielder. In 2012, Fielder signed a 9 year, $214 million contract ($23.8 million AAV) with the Tigers. This deal was easily the most successful in the short-term. Fielder hit .295 over the course of 2 seasons and averaged 34 homers in those seasons to go with a 139 wRC+ (5th best 1B). Further, the Tigers actually made the playoffs in both years. However, despite all this success Fielder was traded to Texas following 2013, likely in part because of the burden of his contract. I also imagine the Tigers needed some of his money in order to offer to Cabrera and other players coming of age. The timing of this trade and Cabrera’s extension is likely not a coincidence. Fielder played three more seasons for Texas under the contract but played less than 90 games in two of them. He ultimately had to retire due to a chronic neck injury. Not to speak poorly of someone who had misfortune that was out of their control, but this deal started with a bang and then fell as flat as humanly possible. Fielder was completely out of baseball before its completion.

That leaves us with Goldschmidt. He was traded from Arizona to St. Louis last off-season and appeared to press in an attempt to prove himself to his new team. A career .292 hitter hit just .260, and while he did hit 34 home runs, his wRC+ of 116 was just 12th of qualifying 1st basemen. The good news is that the Cardinals won 91 games and made the playoffs, but Goldschmidt is 32 and won’t be a free agent until 2025. This deal has plenty of time to go the way of Cabrera yet, at an AAV of $26 million.

So what did we learn today? To be perfectly honest, the evidence seems pretty blunt. A deal as big as the one we are talking about for Lindor seems to either create future years where the player in question doesn’t live up to his contract, or the money committed tends to cripple the team’s ability to put a competitive roster around their star. In two of five cases the player was traded while performing at or beyond expectations just in order to provide relief, and because the roster needed reconstructed in some way. In a third case there are rumors that this will happen as well. In another situation, that star is now wilting away on a rebuilding team that can’t find a way to offload his contact because his skills are so diminished.

Lindor has some things in his favor. He’s only 26 right now and keeps himself in incredible shape. He plays in the middle of the field, unlike every other player we have mentioned, and his game is predicated just as much on his speed and fielding as it is on his offense. Of the players we have mentioned he and Arenado are the only ones that have any of these traits.

However, you absolutely can’t be certain that the Indians will be able to sustain a winning team with a $194 million anchor tied to their leg. Recent history shows over and over again its just not realistic. This isn’t a Dolan thing. Its not a Lindor thing. Its a baseball thing. Making sure one of the best, most charismatic players in Indians history remains an Indian would feel absolutely blissful.

Unfortunately, ignorance seems to be bliss.

(Relatively) Instant Trade Reaction: Cavs Acquire Andre Drummond

It might not be the biggest news of the day, but the Cleveland Cavaliers’ trade deadline acquisition of Andre Drummond is definitely among the most perplexing of today’s deals. As the deadline has come and gone at 3 PM we can now take a full look at this transaction and try to make sense of what it means. To recap:

Cavaliers receive: All-Star Center Andre Drummond

Pistons receive: Power Forward/Center John Henson, journeyman Guard Brandon Knight, the lesser of either Cleveland’s own 2nd Round Draft Pick in 2023 or Golden State’s which the Cavaliers had rights to.

The first thing that jumps out is that the rebuilding Cavaliers have traded for an All-Star. This alone is quite a valid surprise. Drummond is a 2-time former All-Star, his most recent appearance being in 2018. He is also a 3-time rebounding champion and whether you use the metric of Value Over Replacement Player, Box Plus Minus or Win Shares he would be rated as Detroit’s best player for this season to date. Comparatively, by eye test and traditional pecking order he would be considered their 2nd best behind star Power Forward Blake Griffin. The Cavaliers have dealt for what appears to be a proficient center.

On the other hand, in return they provided Henson, who hasn’t played more than 29 games in a season since 2017-2018 due to both injury and coaches’ decisions, along with Knight, who similarly hasn’t played more than 39 games in a season since 2016-2017 for similar reasons. Also included is that not very potent 2nd round pick to be administered 4 drafts from now.

On its face, this looks like an absolute steal from the Cavaliers perspective. So why would Detroit accept such an offer? Well, this season is the third where both Griffin and Drummond have appeared as the two best players on the Pistons’ roster (Griffin landed on Detroit in a mid-season trade during the 2017-2018 season). In this configuration the team has never finished better than 8th in the Eastern Conference, which occurred during the 2018-2019 season, and they were immediately swept in the first round of that year’s playoffs. This year they are in 10th in the East and 4 games out of any playoff spot. Not only do they seem to have peaked already in regards to this current conglomerate of players but they have a total of $61.3 million locked up between Griffin and Drummond just for this year, which equates to 56.2% of their salary cap. That’s over half of their cap tied up in just 2 players that haven’t gotten them a single playoff victory. Pair this with the fact that starting point guard Reggie Jackson is a free agent this summer and it is clear that a re-tooling is imminent, even with Griffin still likely on the squad.

To add onto matters, there have also been questions in the past about the consistency of Drummond’s effort level on the floor. The most glaring example of this problem came in the aforementioned 2018-2019 playoffs when Drummond looked visibly disinterested in Game 3 vs. Milwaukee. Drummond was seen during that game coasting from the painted area to the 3-point line and not even raising a hand in order to contest shots on defense; sometimes just simply standing around and not defending his man at all. He had built a reputation for these type of tendencies both before and after this game, but to make matters worse on this particular night Griffin scored 27 points and dished 6 assists while playing on an injured left knee that required surgery after the season… the contrast is startling.

Beyond the good or bad feelings that an alleged lack of effort can leave, this deal is really also about dollars and cents. Speaking even further on the money, Drummond was in the 4th year of a 5 year contract with the Pistons. That 5th year is tied to a player option that would allow Drummond to make $28.8 million next year. The Boston Celtics (stood pat), Miami Heat (added Andre Iguodala– not a center) and Dallas Mavericks (stood pat) are all possible championship contending teams that could have used a center of Drummond’s caliber. None of them decided he was worth dealing for, not even when the ultimate offer that the Pistons accepted was just Knight, Henson and a 2023 second round pick. That should tell you everything that you need to know about not only Drummond’s reputation in the league, but what he will do in regards to his player option. Teams aren’t that interested. He isn’t getting more than $28.8 million if he opts out and Detroit did not want to have him cash in at their expense, having him sputter out their effort to re-tool before it could even begin.

For Detroit this trade is ultimately to dump Drummond’s salary, make sure he doesn’t hurt their cap space next year as well as to jettison him off the team with possible bad feelings in mind. There’s a chance they think Henson could help mop up the minutes that will now need to be filled with Drummond off the roster. He did play solid, defensively-minded basketball in the few minutes he provided for the Cavs. Ultimately though, the Pistons likely just wanted to do away with Drummond.

So now that I have done my best to besmirch any pleasant feelings about what was seemingly a fairly positive trade, what really are the positive outcomes for the Cavs?

Well, its still true that Drummond was analytically Detroit’s best player this season and if you compare his numbers to the Cavs right now he would be their best rated player as well. He is again leading the league in rebounding and is scoring the most PPG he has in his entire career on efficiency that is in line with his previous 2 seasons, and above his career average. He is also immediately the best rim protector on a team heavily devoid of and seriously needing such talents. Drummond has led the league in Basketball-Reference’s Defensive Rating twice in his career. Young, defensively inept guards like Darius Garland and Collin Sexton immediately become better when they have a shot blocker of Drummond’s caliber behind them protecting the paint. You could argue he is automatically the best player of the Cavaliers right this minute.

In terms of money, the Cavs are flush with cap space going into next season and have no present requirement to run out this summer and sign any expensive free agents, as they are still in the early stages of their rebuild. Tying their money into Drummond for the next 2 seasons isn’t as troublesome as it would have been for the Pistons. Perhaps the change of scenery will do Drummond well and it can kick-start some forward movement for this young Cavaliers squad that has really struggled, especially lately, having dropped 12 of their last 13 games.

However, while Drummond does add certain much needed abilities to the Cavs, there is still a bit of a question about his fit. Its likely the Cavs strategy in pulling the trigger on this trade was to jump at the opportunity to acquire the best talent they could at best possible value regardless of position. Before the deadline occurred I wondered if this move was preemptive to a trade that would send a player like fellow center Tristan Thompson out of town. The Cavs had made him available before the deadline, but no such trade was made.

To that point, this is a team with a number of veteran big men on the roster that are all worthy of minutes: Kevin Love, Thompson and Nance among them. Adding Drummond does increase that log jam, and particularly at a time where teams are playing fewer and fewer big men the move seems curious in that regard. Its even more curious when you consider that Cavs’ coach John Beilein prefers centers that are able to shoot the three (item number 10, I also recently heard one of ESPN’s basketball writers mention this, but can’t find the source now). Thompson and Nance both rank in the top 6 in Minutes Played for the Cavaliers and get the majority of their minutes at center. I imagine they will be playing less, which is a shame for Nance especially, as an incredibly underrated talent on this squad who should probably be playing more minutes as opposed to less.

Ultimately though, the Cavaliers accumulated more talent than they had previously and, while I’m not expecting playoffs, they should be improved on the floor from the jump from this move alone. They also will now have more flexibility for future transactions. Assuming Drummond opts in, he could represent a trade-able expiring contract next season, and as long as the Cavs get a better haul than Knight, Henson and a 2nd round pick in 3 years, the move would be a win (definitely possible, but not a given). If Drummond really tears it up for the Cavs perhaps an extension would be in order- the type that Drummond has been asking for– and then a trade of Nance in the future is a real possibility as his talents become redundant. More talent is always good and the fact the Cavs paid so little in order to get it is a major benefit, even if the fit isn’t perfect.

Games down the stretch of a pretty lack-luster season might have just gotten a little more interesting. Drummond could be a big boost this team needs to get out of a funk… let’s just hope he has the effort and desire for the challenge.

Digging Slightly Deeper on What’s the “Right Thing” for Francisco Lindor: Part 1

Its been the biggest story of the Cleveland Indians off-season and really one of the biggest in the entirety of Major League Baseball. Indians All-Star shortstop Francisco Lindor will come into his fifth full Major League season this year and will do so without a long-term contract.

This past January, Lindor agreed to a $17.5 million dollar contract for his second year within the arbitration system. That leaves just one more season in 2021 before he will become a free agent on the open market.

The consensus is that Lindor, arguably the best player on the roster and the face of this generation of Indians teams, and the Indians front office have tried to work out an extension for his contract in the past, but simply haven’t come to terms. The Indians have a pattern of taking risks on young talent, buying out their arbitration years and even sometimes a free agent year or two, but Lindor has resisted. As he gets closer and closer to the open market it will likely just become that much harder to find an agreement. To his credit, Lindor has bet on himself, and more power to him for it. He stands to potentially make a huge payday in the 2021-2022 off-season.

While there isn’t absolutely no hope at all that a new extension could still happen, for some it seems a foregone conclusion that Lindor will not be on the roster beyond 2021. Even Indians owner Paul Dolan made a remark last winter that Indians fans should “enjoy” Lindor while they can. Meanwhile, just this weekend Lindor himself stated that he wants to bring a championship to Cleveland and that the most important thing to him is winning. He also specifically mentioned that the Indians just need to provide “the right thing”, but they haven’t offered it.

Very cryptic, but a lot of people assume the obvious. He is saying that he wants the Dolan family to show him the money, Cuba Gooding Jr. style. Now, this is merely just speculation, but I think everyone is just slightly off with this assumption. Sure, Lindor wants more cash, but there is one more detail here that isn’t quite as obvious that I really think Lindor is referencing.

Years. Years and years of commitment. Allow me to explain how I got here.

In 2019, the now 26 year-old Lindor had the 6th highest Wins Above Replacement of any shortstop in baseball. Among the five shortstops that performed better were four that are right around his age. The Cubs’ Javier Baez and Colorado’s Trevor Story are 27. Much like Lindor, Boston’s Xander Bogaerts and Minnesota’s Jorge Polanco are 26. All of them except Baez have signed some sort of contract extension with their current team. Bogaerts received the best deal at at $132 million (over 7 years).

Now, I do believe that Lindor is set slightly apart from this pack. He is the most prolific of this bunch of players, accumulating the most WAR over his career to this point. Further, this accumulation isn’t due to playing more games. He actually averages about .04 WAR per game, the rest of the bunch. Beyond this, he is a four-time All-Star, two-time Gold Glove Award winner, two-time Silver Slugger, led baseball in runs scored in 2018 and has finished as high as fifth in MVP voting (2017). Bogaerts (3 Silver Sluggers, 2 All-Stars) and Baez (2 All-Stars, 1 Silver Slugger, 2nd in MVP voting in 2018, led league in RBI that year) are almost as well decorated, but not quite.

What is my point here? I’m trying to establish a barometer for what a Francisco Lindor extension might look like. Lindor is the best player of this group and will want to be paid as such. Further, he will also want a slight bump in salary just because more time has passed since all these other shortstops’ deals have come to fruition.

However, I have heard a lot of talk thrown around in regards to $300 million or more… and I’m not sure Lindor’s market value is quite there yet. Once again, allow me to explain.

If you were to take the very best of the other shortstops’ deals you would end up with a 7 year contract at $19 million per year, equating to $133 million. That’s not anywhere near the type of numbers that Bryce Harper, Mike Trout or Gerrit Cole are getting, but this is what precedent suggests. It could also be proof positive that there is absolutely no chance of Lindor signing an extension. Players like Harper and Trout that hit the open market stand to make even more than when signing an extension. You can make the argument that the likes of Bogaerts and Polanco settled when they signed long-term without testing the waters.

Moving on with the precedent that we have though, Lindor is the best player of this group, and he will want more money for both inflation and in order to make the Players’ Union happy. For that reason, let’s change his terms to 8 years and $24 million per year for a total of $192 million.

I want to focus first on that $24 million figure though, because for the Indians, that really may not be an insurmountable number. Current 1st baseman Carlos Santana will make $20.8 million this year and that money stands to come off the Indians’ books following the season, barring the approval of his team option. Further, although it was the largest contract in team history, the Indians committed $20 million per year when they signed Edwin Encarnacion in 2017. If the Indians front office is able to account for that extra $3 million or so, I do think that there is an Annual Average Value out there that is manageable for both Lindor and the Tribe, particularly when you are talking about a star of Lindor’s magnitude.

However.

A long-term commitment is also essential to this deal. Of the other five shortstops that I mentioned before, only Trevor Story signed an extension that was less than five years (also excluding Baez, of course), and once again Lindor is the best of the best. He is going to want the best of the best, and herein lies the problem.

In March of 2017 the Indians signed IF Jose Ramirez to a 5-year contract extension worth $26 million. And that is the longest contract that the Cleveland Indians front office has ever agreed to. Beyond that, the Indians have only committed to one 4-year deal in team history, given to Travis Hafner in 2007. To top it off, notice that the AAV on that Ramirez deal is still only $5.2 million, making it relatively low-risk.

There is absolutely no way, no how that Francisco Lindor is going to receive anything near an eight year commitment from the Cleveland Indians, particularly at over $20 million per year. It just wouldn’t be in the nature of this front office or ownership group to extend themselves to those reaches. So to say its the amount of money that the Indians won’t pay to Lindor that is the problem is only half of the truth. I actually believe the Indians could meet Lindor’s monetary wants in the short-term. They nearly do right now. Lindor will make $17.5 million this coming season. They just don’t have the stomach to commit to him for the extended length of time that will be required. I think this is the “right thing” that Lindor is requiring.

We can and will discuss whether that is a good thing or a bad thing on another day soon.

9 Possible Kevin Love Destinations- A Ranking

The trade deadline now fast approaches following a Cavaliers’ victory on Monday night against the Detroit Pistons from Little Caesar’s Arena in Detroit. The Cavaliers move to 13-34 following the win and sit tied for 13th in the Eastern Conference with the New York Knicks. They are well on their way to second consecutive year in the draft lottery, and I have already written about their continually frustrating play despite this specific victory. Concerns continue to brew as reports come out that some of the players on the roster are frustrated that more progress hasn’t been made on the court.

Kevin Love is likely one of those critics. He has already let it be known that he would prefer to be traded to a contending team, while not directly demanding so. It is well-documented that he is frustrated though, showing it both on and off the court. Hard decisions are going to have to be made as February 6th approaches.

I came into this season thinking Love would likely remain on the roster through April, but with how this season has progressed and how detrimental keeping Love could possibly be to every party involved, its now a definite that a trade to ship Love elsewhere should at least be explored. Beyond that, we know for a fact that Cavaliers General Manager Koby Altman is listening to offers.

And the rumor mill spins. I’ve taken some considerable time to comb through that rumor mill and devise a list of suitors for Love. The teams I am about to list have had their names strewn about the inter-webs in regards to a potential attachment to a trade. I will put them in three categories and rank them, from least likely to most.

Before we get there though, we need to have some criteria for these rankings. Teams obviously have to financially be capable of taking on Love and his 4-year extended contract in a trade that makes sense for both sides. The money has to match up under NBA rules, and the trade must make sense. Beyond the basic financials of the situation, I will be mindful that most teams are also trying to save their cap space for the summer of 2021 when a monumental free agent class headlined by Milwaukee Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo will be available. Therefore, a team that can handle Love’s contract, and still have additional cap space is a better option. One possible exception to this element though would be a team that isn’t located in a big market or glamorous, free agent destination. That type of team would be much more likely to pull the trigger on a trade for a star of Love’s ilk, even with the flaws his contract perpetuates .

Further, Love must be a fit for that prospective team. This likely means its a team with a star or two on it already where Love would slide in as the 2nd or 3rd best player. The team would have to be able to swallow the fact that Love has statistically been one of the worst defenders in the league this year (299th out of a qualifying 311 in NBA.com’s Defensive Rating!!!). Lastly, a team currently in playoff position that isn’t considered head and shoulders above everyone else (so basically any team in either conference’s top 8 that isn’t the Lakers, Clippers, or Bucks) or a fringe playoff team looking to gain some cachet would be a better fit. I personally think the best bet to trade Love comes from a team looking to cause a stir by jumping itself from 9th thru 11th in this conference right now and into the playoffs.

Additionally, wherever it isn’t already mentioned, there is also the opportunity for draft picks to be included in these trades. I will talk a lot about the Cavs receiving players that often just fill salary cap rule obligations. Ultimately, most of the value back that the Cavs will ever receive will be in dollar-less draft pick selections.

There might be one or two more elements to this, but those would be specific to the teams we are talking about, and we will get to that. Without further delay, let’s get to it! Here are your nine ranked teams that have been rumored to Kevin Love trades.

I Can’t Believe Writers Thought These Were Good Ideas

9. Golden State Warriors

  • The premise behind this is that the Warriors are itching to get rid of guard D’Angelo Russell so much that they would be willing to take on Love in an effort to re-tool next season.
  • What’s more likely is that the Warriors will continue to tank out this season, try to come back with a fully healthy squad next year, plus a high draft choice and be nearly as scary as they were in 2016 all over again.
  • Yes, Russell becomes redundant next year when Klay Thompson returns and he is the only player financially that makes the money work here. MAYBE this is a consideration in the summer if Love hasn’t been dealt, but I suspect the Warriors are in no hurry to use their assets.
This trade is also bad because analysis shows it makes both teams actually worse.

8. Boston Celtics

Love for Hayward straight-up is possible but unlikely.

7. Dallas Mavericks

  • Another team where contracts lead to trade inflexibility, this one requires the Mavericks to deal sixth-man Tim Hardaway Jr. I fear he might be too difficult of a loss for a team with true aspirations to go deep into the playoffs. They’d be trading their 3rd best scorer for a guy averaging only about 3 points more a game if this trade were in the offing.
  • Love would slot in well with current stars Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis, but he would fill their 2021 cap room. Doncic will be 22 in 2021. Porzingis will be 26. They are perfectly equipped to continue to progress for now and add another star when that summer comes. They have the possibility to be the next super-team in a couple years, but only if they don’t trade for Love.

Teams Where I Can Start to See It

6. Portland Trail Blazers

  • This seemed fairly likely at one point. Portland is Love’s hometown team and he has expressed interested in returning. I’d even call it his preference.
  • Also, stat-stuffing but often not-winning center Hassan Whiteside would be a likely centerpiece to any trade. I could see the Cavs being excited about giving Whiteside a 4th chance for his career to flourish.
  • Portland is a fringe playoff team, currently 10th in the West as they have disappointed all season. Love would be a good fit to go with star guards Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum.
  • However, Portland traded wing-man Kent Bazemore earlier this month and his contract was likely needed for flexibility in any such Kevin Love trade.
  • They are also 25th in the Association in defense, a likely explanation for their woes this year and something Love would far from remedy.
  • He’d also fill their cap for the 2021 off-season. Portland might be a little too underwhelming right at this moment to sacrifice their future. This trade seems a little ill-conceived.
A Blazers trade would likely include Whiteside, and a young prospect like Little or a pick. Either would be legal.

5. Miami Heat

  • Miami is an ambitious playoff team that could really stand to add to the star power it has with forward Jimmy Butler. They’re 14th in defense and Butler along with coach Erik Spolestra preach a style that could bolster Love’s abilities on the defensive end.
  • A trade would likely include some combination of veteran forward James Johnson’s bad contract and wing-man Justise Winslow, who has been oft-injured this season and played poorly when healthy.
  • However, due to previous moves the Heat are unable to include their first round pick in 2020 or 2022 in any trade, making sweetening the pot much more difficult and likely requiring them to trade one of the young, talented prospects that they have been depending on for production this season (my recommendation would be shooter Duncan Robinson). I doubt they will be willing to make that sacrifice.
  • Miami is a big-market, destination for free agents and the Heat are currently positioned well to bring in a big name player in 2021. They still could do so if they trade for Love, they currently would have that much space, but after relenting on trading for Thunder guard Chris Paul all summer for cap reasons, it sure seems more likely that Pat Riley would rather hold onto that money for another year and a half.
Duncan Robinson is just one prospect that Miami could trade in lieu of draft picks. Others include guard Kendrick Nunn and shooter Tyler Herro.

The Real Deal Ideas

4. Indiana Pacers

  • Indiana has a cavalcade of players that could possibly be included in a deal that would likely be headlined by center Myles Turner. The Olympian is expendable for a perceived inability to co-exist on the floor with other fellow big man Domatas Sabonis, who the Pacers are committed to.
  • The Pacers would fill their 2021 cap money if they trade for Love, but are a small market team not likely to pull in a big fish in free agency.
  • They already have players like guard Victor Oladipo and Sabonis to slot around Love and are the 10th best Defensive team in the NBA.
  • Concerns come from how serious are the Pacers about their playoff aspirations and the fact that this trade would occur within the Central Division. Indiana is 5th in the East and still doesn’t have Oladipo back from injury, but does a trade for Love really make them competitive with the Bucks? Will the Cavs trade Love within the Central? Still, there is potential here. This deal would check a lot of boxes for both teams.
Turner is valuable enough to potentially do this deal without picks involved, and Love could fit better with Sabonis.

3. Orlando Magic

  • The Magic are the 7th seed in the East right now and could really bolster themselves by adding a playoff tested star like Love who can provide offense to go with the 7th best defense in the league.
  • They are a smaller market, but do have some Florida appeal to free agents, which is handy because currently they could handle Love and an additional 2021 free agent on their books.
  • Aaron Gordon is likely the big contract to be traded back to the Cavs and he’s the closest thing Orlando has to a face for their franchise right now. That might be a price slightly too steep, or the Magic front office could think their potential has peaked with Gordon as their leader.
  • An interesting note: teams are also interested in Magic guard DJ Augustin. Augustin’s steady hand was crucial to Orlando’s playoff appearance last season, but they might also be willing to part with him in exchange for Love. A team like the Clippers though is much more likely to have use for Augustin, so a 3-team deal might be a possibility. This would likely require the Cavs to also acquire Mo Harkless from the Clippers.
  • A simpler 2-way deal such as Gordon and forward Al-Farouq Aminu for Love is more likely.
Wiry center prospect Mo Bamba can also be swapped out for Aminu in this deal, but Gordon is likely the best return player in any of these suggested trades (with exception to the unrealistic Celtics and Warriors deals).

2. Memphis Grizzlies

  • Memphis had the 2nd pick in the most recent NBA Draft. As of today, they are the 8th seed in the West at 22-24.
  • They are a small market with a young team and a ton of cap space. They don’t have other stars to pair with Love outside of rookie guard Ja Morant, but would automatically get a bump for adding a play of Love’s caliber offensively. It would also signal that their front office is serious about competing.
  • A deal will likely include center Jonas Valanciunas and the miserable contract of forward Solomon Hill. There’s not a lot of value there but with a pick or two included, there is a trade that makes a lot of sense.
  • The only other drawback I see if that Memphis is 22nd in Defensive Rating, but I think they could compromise that to solidify their present and to provide a running man for the young Morant.
This one would require picks. Valanciunas has some talent, but as constructed this is mostly a salary dump trade.
  1. Phoenix Suns
  • This is the most likely destination if only based off all the non-hypothetical smoke that exists around a Kevin Love to Phoenix trade.
  • The Suns are 11th in the West, and although Memphis is in the playoffs as of today and Phoenix isn’t the Suns have a considerable amount more star power to pair Love with in one of the top scoring guards in the league in Devin Booker and former 1st overall pick center DeAndre Ayton.
  • Phoenix isn’t a traditional small market team but they are an organization with a bit of a reputation for a bad owner, making then not a great free agent destination. A Love trade might be their chance to bring in an established star.
  • Beyond all this, they could have 2021 cap room even with Love added to their roster and he could help change the reputation of the organization.
  • The Suns also have the biggest arsenal of trade-able contracts to send back to Cleveland. Guard Tyler Johnson is likely part of the deal, but beyond that names could include Cam Johnson, Aaron Baynes, Frank Kominsky, Mikal Bridges along with various picks. Variety and flexibility more likely means a better chance at a deal.
Just one of the ways a Suns trade could go down since Phoenix has so many trade-able assets.

Will a trade happen? That is yet to be seen. There is still the pull and tug of the fact teams don’t want to take on Love’s 4-year max contract. He’s on the wrong end of 30 years old and has an injury history. There aren’t a lot of long-term contracts in the league right now and having all that money tied up is a real liability. Teams will feel like they are doing the Cavs a favor by taking him off their hands, but the Cavs are still going to want value for him.

I do know that after finishing this exercise a trade feels more possible than I thought it could be before. There’s a real possibility a team like Indiana, Memphis or Phoenix will want to make a statement and make a slightly rash judgment to compete now. We only have another week or so to wait and see, so an answer is coming shortly.

For now, it wouldn’t be a Cavs season without Kevin Love trade rumors.