I don’t know what to make of this Cavs team.
So far, they have played back-to-back seven game series during this NBA Playoffs. Both series have seen the Cavaliers and their opponents tied at a 2-2 game split after four games. Both series have seen the Cleveland squad narrowly secure a Game 5 win, seeming like momentum could be on their side. Both series saw the Cavs drop Game 6 with one being a close, gut-wrenching loss on a last second three pointer by Raptors forward RJ Barrett that bounced trepidatiously around the rim before going in. The other was a equally problematic but resounding defeat by the Detroit Pistons that saw Motor City’s team keep the Cavaliers at bay for practically the full 48 minutes.
While both Game 6 losses book-ended the spectrum, neither phased Cleveland for very long. In both cases, the Cavs would respond in Game 7 and in both cases, they would end the series with double-digit victories. Game 7 in Detroit on Sunday would ultimately be a 31-point beatdown of the Pistons, triumphantly advancing the Cavs to the Eastern Conference Finals without leaving any doubt.
But up until Game 5 of that second round series against Detroit, the Cavs had not won on the road and had not lost at home during these playoffs. That script was also completely flipped in the last three games of said series. Again, the vibes were great when the Cavaliers went into Detroit and scrapped away a victory in Game 5. A closeout Game 6 at home felt like the opportunity for Donovan Mitchell and the rest of this organization’s players that have culminated in this era of Cleveland basketball to stamp themselves as having taken the next step. That obviously isn’t what happened, as they were ultimately drubbed in Game 6 at home.
Mitchell was especially bad. The Cavs’ best player since his acquisition via trade before the 2022-2023 season and a 1st Team All-NBA caliber player, scored just 18 points on 20 shots. Mitchell was tunnel visioning his way into the paint to take forced layups, clearly feeling the need to carry the load offensively. This was even more unfortunate as his play was the antithesis to how the Cavaliers play when they have been their best during the era Mitchell has presided over.
To say the least, it wasn’t the performance you would want from your biggest star in a closeout Game 6 at home. Mitchell wasn’t the only one to deserve blame though. Despite being 9th best in Turnover% during the regular season, turnovers have been an epidemic for Cleveland in this post-season. Some of their struggles are due to the physical defensive nature of the Cavs’ opponents to this point. Both Toronto and Detroit had clear game-plans to cast away concerns of getting into foul trouble and to hassle and pester the Cavaliers into speeding up their offense with ball pressure and active hands in passing lanes.
Another part of the issue can be the free-wheeling nature of Cleveland’s latest acquisition, guard James Harden. A former Most Valuable Player now at 36 years’ old, Harden admittedly isn’t what he once was consistently but can still be a marvel of decision-making and precision with the basketball when he is on top of his game. However, his passes and dribble moves can also easily stray and turn into live ball turnovers when he is off of his game due to the proverbial needle he is constantly trying to thread. Harden had 8 turnovers in Game 6. He is 2nd in Turnovers both by raw total and by percentage in this playoffs.
But really, no Cavalier was absolved of blame in Game 6. Dennis Schroder and Max Strus shot it poorly. (Schroder also turned it over 3 times in 15 minutes) Jarrett Allen only pulled down 1 defensive rebound in 30 minutes of play. Evan Mobley was a net -24 while he was on the floor in the game and turned it over three times himself.
But for as bleak at Game 6 was, none of it mattered. Cleveland was just as good on the road in Game 7. Mitchell responded in what was arguably the most important game of his career to date, putting together a 26-6-8 stat-line. While a better shooting night was important, the 8 assists that he dished may have been even more pivotal as he consistently made the right basketball play and the Cavs’ shooters and big men did their part.
Sharpshooter Sam Merrill was integral, scoring 23 points on just 10 shots, going 5 of 8 from behind the three point arc. The Cavaliers’ two big men, both mercurial enough to be capable of both All-Star level play and deflating performances, were excellent. Both scored over 20 points. Mobley had a game-leading 12 rebounds.
Defensive-minded forward Dean Wade had taken up the duty of being the primary defender on Pistons lone star scorer Cade Cunningham all series. Wade and company seemed to finally wear him down in Game 7. Cunningham had an awful shooting night, scoring 13 points on 16 shots. He didn’t score a single point in the second half.
The Pistons own All-Star center Jalen Duren, who had struggled all playoffs before seeming to find his way in Game 6, was put back in a box by the Cavs’ front-court in Game 7. He scored just 7 points on 7 shots in Game 7 while turning it over three times.
Speaking of turnovers, while Harden didn’t follow suit and have a great shooting night like some of his teammates, he only turned it over once, locking in and dishing 6 assists and keeping Pistons defensive stalwart Ausar Thompson occupied for a good portion of the night. Harden didn’t need to make the spectacular play, but just play his role, and he did to the tune of being +31 on the floor.
Game 7 was everything Game 6 was expected to be. It was a Cavaliers’ team firmly raising themselves up one rung on the ladder in the NBA lexicon at a time where if they had not done so, there may have been significant changes to roster and/or leadership moving forward. Had this game gone the other way, the possible perception being that this assembly of talent had run its course and could scale no higher than the second round of the playoffs. Players capable of playing great did it and finally did it “when the lights were bright”.
But this isn’t an ending. In some ways, it is only a start. The next challenge will be the Eastern Conference Finals, and the New York Knicks. And while the vibes are back to feeling strong, one has to wonder how long that will really last. I don’t even mean that in an overly pessimistic way. I mean it at face value. For as impressive as Cleveland looked in Game 7, we know they are just as capable of taking all of that possible momentum and squandering it two days later. We’ve seen them do it, then marvel at how they turned right back around and played at their best again.
New York has shot the ball exceptionally well this playoffs. Forward OG Anunoby averaged about 17 points per game on 48% from the field and 39% from three in the regular season. He has averaged 21 on 62% from the field and 54% from three in the playoffs. Old friend and current Knicks coach Mike Brown has elected to run more offense this post-season through skilled big man Karl-Anthony Towns, whose scoring is down, but has more than doubled his assist output compared to the regular season (3 APG vs 6.6 APG). Swing-man Mikal Bridges has been another efficient scorer for New York. While his attempts are down, he has chipped in 13 points per game on a sparkling 67.8 True Shooting%.
Of course, the Knicks’ diminutive star point guard Jalen Brunson has also played his part. He is the top scorer for the playoffs between these two teams at over 27 points per game. Having Towns play more of a play-making role seems to have served Brunson well in allowing him to focus more on scoring and taking some of the grander offensive responsbility off of him.
To be fair, the Cavs’ front-court is going to present much more of a challenge to Towns’s offensive talents than those that he faced against either of New York’s previous match-ups. The Cavaliers have both last year’s Defensive Player of the Year in Mobley as well as Allen, who isn’t as decorated, but certainly poses more of a threat than Onyeka Okongwu, Joel Embiid, Andre Drummond or anyone else Towns has had thrown at him to this point. While New York has shot the lights out so far this post-season, by the time Tuesday’s Game 1 comes they will have had nine days since they’ve last played in order to cool off.
For their part, while Cleveland has admittedly thrown away a lot of possessions via turnover during the playoffs, they’ve also created a ton of extra possessions by being the best offensive rebounding team during the tournament. Allen and Mobley lead the way in this metric, but really, the Cavs have gotten contributions down the line with Wade and Max Strus in particular putting together strong efforts on the offensive glass.
The Knicks do not tend to play the same aggressive style of defense as much as Cleveland’s last two adversaries have and it will be interesting to see if the Knicks remain true to their own form or if they turn up the pressure on the Cavaliers’ ball-handlers. New York does have some larger wing players like Bridges and Josh Hart that could play this style, but they have more offense-first guards in total like Miles McBride, Jordan Clarkson and of course, Brunson. Anunoby appears to be getting a clean bill of health, but has been listed as being day-to-day with a hamstring injury. He is a bigger forward who can step out and defend the perimeter usually, but how will his mobility fare?
On the one hand, the Knicks are playing with a ton of confidence right now and it shows in how they’ve shot the ball in the last month. This series very well may come down to if New York stay hot. You know the cliché. It is a make or miss league.
On the other hand, I can look at every metric known to man and it may do me no good at all. This Cavs team doesn’t seem to live by the rules of statistics, narratives or momentum. Just when you think they’re on top of the world, they are sinking. Just when they seem done for, they win Game 7 on the road by 30.
As for an objective prediction…
New York stays hot. Towns has a triple double and Anunoby scores 30 in a deciding Game 6 that sees Mobley and Allen disappear and the Cavs are vanquished with ease.
No wait… Harden keeps a lid on the turnovers and the Cavs attack the offensive glass. Mitchell is the best player in the series. Cavs win in 6.
Wait… Brunson and Mitchell trade great scoring nights. The Cavs continue to clean the offensive glass, particularly from Mobley who is being boxed out by the much smaller and still recovering Anunoby. But Josh Hart steps up and turns Harden back into a slot machine that spews wayward passes. We get both a Mikal Bridges and a Sam Merrill game. But who wins?
The Cavs “Jekyll, Jekyll, Hyde, Jekyll, Hyde, Hyde, Jekyll” their way to win in seven.
I think…
Pick-Up Sports Talk: Cleveland 