Do the Cavaliers Really Stuggle with Early Start Times?

A couple of weeks ago, the Cleveland Cavaliers were playing a Sunday national television matinee game against the Oklahoma City Thunder and found themselves down big early. On that national broadcast, former Cavalier and current ABC/ESPN commentator Richard Jefferson said something I found interesting.

He made reference to the fact that games played early can be hard for teams to get ready for, especially when you have veteran players. It was a somewhat weird assertion that was possibly colored by the Cavs recent acquisition of 36-year old guard James Harden, but what Jefferson was basically alleging was that Cleveland’s issues that afternoon were mental, based on the game starting early in the day (also, that the Thunder were a younger team than them, which I think is fair).

The conversation carried on into half-time, where the Inside the NBA crew acknowledged what Jefferson said. Their reaction was on a spectrum between being dismissive of the idea in principle and considering Jefferson’s idea to be an unacceptable excuse if true. Either way, on that day the idea that the Cavaliers were caught off guard by the early start time got a little bit of exposure, whether true or false.

To be more specific about the details that led to Jefferson’s commentary, the Cavs lost the first quarter of that game on February 22nd 40-25. They trailed by a less startling 64-55 score at the half.

The Cavs did end up fighting back and even tied the game in the third quarter before ultimately losing by eight. These kind of games early in the day are fairly rare and with Kenny Atkinson’s group willing themselves back into the ballgame, I think the narrative was forgotten about over the course of the next few weeks. Cleveland won three of their next five including quality wins against the Knicks and Pistons, making the idea even less top of mind.

However, the Cavaliers faced off with the Boston Celtics this past Sunday for another 1 PM start time. The Cavs were boat-raced in the first half by a score of 56-36, with an especially bad 2nd quarter that saw them score only 10 points. While a twenty point half-time deficit is bad enough, what made this situation worse was that Cleveland actually led 11-3 in this game, meaning they were outscored at one point to the tone of a 53-25 score.

Once again, Jefferson was on the commentary team on Sunday and he once again made reference to the start time. This time, I think his words were more along the lines of “these early start times can make things weird.” Oddly enough, Jefferson’s suggestion didn’t make as many waves this time on the broadcast. Shaq, Chuck and the half-time crew were much more interested in not knowing who Celtics guard Baylor Scheierman was. They did chastise Cleveland for its performance, but didn’t specifically talk about the start time.

The Cavs once again stopped the bleeding in the second half, but weren’t able to do much more than that as they ended up losing 109-98. The loss means a lot on a macro level. Boston’s star small forward Jayson Tatum made his second appearance of the season in recovery from a ruptured Achilles tendon and looks nearly as healthy as an ox. Boston appears to be going from being a decent option to come out of the Eastern Conference to perhaps the favorite, and a pretty noticeable drubbing of Cleveland enhances their argument.

On a more micro-level, I became interested in this narrative Jefferson has spun now twice. Quite frankly, I watched this game after the fact via DVR on Sunday night. I’m not all that plugged into social media either. So, I don’t know how much traction his idea has really gotten out there on the internet. But in a vacuum, I am intrigued. I’m not even certain I’m looking to endorse it. I just think it is something to check on. So, that’s what I’m doing. I’m am going to try to discern if there is any merit to the idea that the Cavaliers this year have struggled with early start times.

To start, on a most basic level, we need to define an “early start time”. This is somewhat arbitrary. In both games that Jefferson commentated that inspired this idea, the Cavs’ game started at 1 PM Eastern Time. Cleveland has only played one additional 1 PM start time game this season. Any sample size I am going to be able to come up with is admittedly flimsy anyway, but in this case, I want to at least add a little more data.

I thought about including any game that started before sunset in the local area that the game was played, but that would have been a little weird because it would have included a 6 PM start against the Milwaukee Bucks on October 26th, but not a 5 PM start against the Memphis Grizzlies on November 15th, just by sheer virtue of Daylight Savings and the fact the Earth is tilted on an axis.

To avoid that inconsistency, I am including any game that started at 3:30 PM or earlier. There are nine of these in total. Interestingly, all but two of them have been home games, which should work in the Cleveland squad’s favor. All but one of them were in the Eastern time zone, with the aforementioned game against OKC technically being a noon start when considering local time.

As for results, the Cavaliers are just 3-6 in games that start at 3:30 PM or earlier. The average score of these games has been a Cavs’ 119-116 loss. What has been really telling in these games though has been Cleveland’s first half performances, or lack thereof. There seem to be two main components that lead to this deficit, and they both have to do with shooting the basketball.

The Cavs have shot a mere 39.6% from the field in the first half of these games, significantly down from their 47.5% mark for the entirety of the season. Their shooting from three is also down in these instances to 30.9%, which is noticeable (down from 35.8%) but not as drastic as their shooting from the entirety of the court.

Star guard Donovan Mitchell has had multiple duds in terms of shooting halves over the course of these games, including going 3 of 9 on December 14th vs. Charlotte, 1 of 6 on January 4th against Detroit, and 2 of 10 against OKC on January 19th.

Mitchell is shooting at a near career-high for efficiency this season, punching in at a Field Goal% of 48.3%. However, he is shooting just 38.4% in these early games. He has been more aggressive in the second halves of games over the course of the season in general. He is near the top of the league in second half scoring, but his lack of first half effectiveness seems especially pronounced in these particular games.

The other component involved here is how well opposing teams have shot the ball against Cleveland. Opponents have shot a blazing 45.5% from beyond the arc against the Cavaliers in the first half of these early games. Obviously, this is a very specific small sample, but no team has shot at that high of a rate for the season.

In more than half of these games, the Cavaliers’ opponent made more than ten threes in the first half. For reference, teams average about 13 made threes per game. To the extreme, the Thunder made a staggering 14 threes against the Cavs in the first half on February 22nd.

Teams are out-threeing Cleveland by 4.1 threes per first half in these games, a disparity of more than 12 points per half. That, along with Cleveland’s own inability to just put the ball in the hoop at large, seems to have really put them in a hole on multiple occasions. Four different times, the Cavaliers went into half-time losing by ten points or more.

I don’t have access to the metrics that could tell me the quality of shots that the Cavs have allowed in these games. What I can say is that defensive quality is loosely tied to effort and intensity. Other stats that I would also consider tied to effort and intensity don’t suggest lethargy on Cleveland’s part.

For example, the Cavs’ offensive rebounding comes in at about 6 rebounds per half during the first halves in question. This is basically in line with their effectiveness on the offensive glass over the course of the regular season. The same can be said about their ability to generate turnovers at 7.8 per half. Both numbers are nearly exactly half of the Cavaliers’ full game averages over the course of the regular season.

I do think though that the Cavaliers’ offensive woes are in some ways tied poor execution. They’ve shot the ball poorly and I believe there is some eye test indicators that show this isn’t solely a matter of poor luck. Cleveland really struggled to be decisive with the basketball and get quality shots on Sunday against Boston, for instance. There were a number of contested threes, late shot clock possessions and one particular instance I can remember where forward Dean Wade turned his back to the basket and dribbled out past the three point line to search for someone to pass to with the shot clock down to six and counting.

At the same time, I do think there has been a big streak of shooting luck for the Cavaliers’ opponents. I mean no offense to Thunder shooting guard Isaiah Joe. He is a really solid player that runs well as a cog in the well-oiled machine that is OKC. Additionally, he is having a really good shooting season, posting a 41.2% 3-point percentage. But him making four threes in two different first halves against the Cavs doesn’t feel sustainable.

Pistons’ guard Danniss Jenkins is a great story having been converted from a 2-way player to a full NBA contract this year. But his 6 for 6 shooting display in the first half against the Cavaliers on January 4th also seems excessively unfortunate.

The Cavaliers have put a lot of effort into self-regulating after these poor early showings, and their averages when you take into account the full game among these nine games are actually surprisingly in line with their numbers for the full season. Cleveland has shot 46.8% from the field in these early games from start to finish, as well as 35.9% from three and 78.4% from the free throw line.

For the season, they’ve shot 47.5% from the field, 35.8% from three and 77.7% from the charity stripe. In two cases, the Cavaliers’ rates are actually slightly better in these early in the day type games. In reality, the difference in these numbers is statistical noise. They also generate more free throw opportunities in these early games, with more than 3 more free throw attempts per game.

However, their opponents’ shooting efficiencies have been better than their own. Their opponents have shooting rates of 47.3/43.5/79.1 (FG/3P/FT) over the course of these nine specific games. For the season, Cleveland’s opponents have shot 46.2/37.0/79.3. So what really sticks out again, is that the Cavaliers’ adversaries have been shooting the lights out from three. A 43.5% three point rate would rank as the second best team in the NBA over the course of this season.

In the previously mentioned game against Oklahoma City, the Thunder made 21 threes on a 51.2% rate. Joe and fellow role player Cason Wallace made ten of them. If you were a Thunder bench player that took a three in that game, you made them at a rate of 50% or better.

That was one of two such games where the Cavs’ opponent shot 50% or better from three. The other was a 1 PM start on January 10th vs. the Timberwolves. Minnesota made 16 threes that day, with sixth man Naz Reid and star guard Anthony Edwards combining for nine of them. Spurred mostly by Reid, the T-Wolves bench shot 8 for 10 on threes in the game. Another instance where reserves really excelled from three point land against Cleveland.

The offensive rebounding and turnover generation numbers once again don’t suggest that the Cavaliers have shown a lack of intensity over these full game spans. That coupled with the fact that the Cavs have bounced back offensively in the second halves of these games leaves us in an interesting position.

I think it is fair to say that Cleveland hasn’t shot it well early on in these games. To say that they’d be better off not being so stagnant early and not falling behind in the process is Captain Obvious level analysis. Donovan Mitchell has had a couple of clunkers in there as far as halves go. But, it is also pretty clear though that in a number of these games Mitchell and company have come storming back offensively- enough so that their full game numbers for these games basically mirror their season averages.

However, those valiant efforts have often been stopped in their tracks because the teams the Cavaliers have been playing have flat out shot the cover off the ball. Is some of that poor defense? That could be. How many of these games do we need in order to be comfortable that this isn’t something where the law of averages will level off the other teams shooting rates?

I could make the argument that someone smarter than me should be answering that question, but what’s the fun in that? I think it is more likely that the Cavs have run into some hot shooting nights from solid contributing players like Joe, Jenkins and Reid as well as the more common heater from a star like Edwards.

There is something else here though that I think needs to be addressed. The fact of the matter is that if Cleveland is playing a game early in the day, there’s a pretty good chance it is a nationally televised game, like the two that Jefferson was on the call for. Nationally televised games tend to be against pretty stiff competition.

And here’s the real rub- the real potential cause for concern more than the idea that the Cavaliers just aren’t able to rub the sleep from their eyes early enough for a 1 PM start on a Sunday- I think we need to grapple with the possibility that this isn’t about the timing of the games, but who the Cavaliers are playing against in these games.

The Cavs may be potential Finals hopefuls, but they are also a team that is 5-11 against the top 3 teams in each conference this season. That .313 winning percentage is worse than their .333 winning percentage in these early slate games. Maybe the Cavaliers do potentially have an early game problem, but I think it is more likely they are still just struggling with high-level competition.

You know what teams at the top of the conference tend to do well? They defend. All but one of Cleveland’s 6 losses in early games was against a team in the top 7 in Defensive Rating. Sounds like the kind of thing that would cause them to have a significant drop in their shooting percentages. Quality teams also tend to scout well. So if they know a team is prone to a slow start, they could be in a mode to come out and try to punch them in the mouth early- like has happened multiple times now.

James Harden was brought to town to help the Cavaliers over a hump that they have stumbled over in multiple seasons. It is far too early to suggest that the Cavs won’t be able to surmount that hump with Harden’s help. There hasn’t been enough time for the team’s collective talents to coalesce since his addition. What I am more certain of though is that Cleveland still has work to do.

They might need to clean up their act in early slate games. After all, it is far from unheard of for this media market to play a playoff game early in the day (just ask the Guardians and their fans the last couple of years). What’s more likely is that they need to tighten up their offensive execution against elite defenses, Mitchell and Harden need to be able to utilize each other in an opportunity to create room to operate for themselves. It wouldn’t hurt to communicate on defense and be willing to run a sharpshooting role player off the three point line every once in a while.

Regardless of if the game starts at noon, 10 PM or anywhere in between.

The Cavaliers Are Rolling Again and Drawing Lofty Comparisons from Their Coach

Cavaliers coach Kenny Atkinson has plenty of reason to be positive. After all, he’s seen his team take off over the course of the last month, winning 11 of their last 15 games. The Cavs have the best record in the Eastern Conference over that period of time and have climbed themselves out of the Play-In portion of the standings and into 5th place.

Cleveland’s biggest change has been with their offense as the Cavaliers have seen their shot-making improve significantly as of late. They are 3rd in FG% over the course of the those last 15 games, in comparison to 14th over the course of the full season. They’re 6th place in both Points per Game and True Shooting% over the same period of time, as the Cavs’ offense has spurred their resurgence.

The contributions have come up and down the Cavaliers’ roster. Before injuring his right foot (the one that wasn’t injured last summer), point guard Darius Garland had started shooting the ball much better from the floor, especially at the rim and from mid-range. While he doesn’t shoot that often, forward Dean Wade has gone from a brick-layer to reliable in the attempts he is taking, including going a perfect 4 for 4 from the field this past Monday vs. Orlando.

Meanwhile, guard Sam Merrill has been superb whenever he has been able to stay of the floor this season. The sharpshooter is making threes at a clip of 45.5% on the year, which would be a career high. His volume per game is also up, as he has featured more commonly as a weapon in Cleveland’s offense than he ever has in his career across three teams and six seasons. His total number of three point shots attempted is below the last two seasons only because he has missed time… due to an ongoing injury to his shooting hand. When Merrill has played it has been despite that ailment, making his success all that much more impressive.

And of course, Cleveland’s star guard Donovan Mitchell has been one of the best players in the league again this season. Mitchell has gone for 40 or more points five times during this campaign, including in the Cavs’ most recent game on Wednesday at home vs. the Magic. The 29.5 PPG he is averaging would be a career high if he can keep it up. His current 61.9% True Shooting% would also be the best of his career.

Last season Mitchell seemed more deferential. The 18.6 shots he took per game were the lowest he’d taken since his rookie season.

This year though, with the Cavaliers’ roster going through ongoing injury turmoil, Mitchell has been the biggest mainstay. He has played in and started 44 games for the Cavs, the most of anyone on the team. The Cavaliers have leaned on him offensively. Following last season’s downturn in shot attempts, he’s actually taking the most shots per game of any season in his career (21.1). Yet, when opposing defenses have strategized around shutting Mitchell off, he hasn’t forced bad shots. Instead, he’s kept the ball moving, as evidenced in the Cavs’ two games against the Philadelphia 76ers this month. Mitchell combined for 21 assists in those two contests as Philly’s defense prioritized getting the ball out of Mitchell’s hands. Mitchell simply obliged, trusting in his teammates as Cleveland’s improved offense did the rest.

Admittedly, whether Mitchell came into the season deciding to be more aggressive or his aggression came from necessity based off of the inconsistent nature of the lineup around him, the Cavaliers seemed to need a little bit of time to calibrate to a new season. As fans, it is easy to look at home this current season has gone and compare it to the absolute juggernaut that the Cavs appeared to be last season. In doing so, it is natural to be disappointed. I know I’ve been guilty of this at times. However, Mitchell spoke about this very simply and very astutely just earlier this week. When interviewed, he essentially stated that last season is over. This is a new season with new challenges and that comparing to last season doesn’t do any good. Simple, but truthful words.

I acknowledge that it is a little easier to say it now that the Cavaliers are on a much better roll, but I have to say he is right. What’s done is done. This is a new season with new challenges. The Cavs aren’t in the same stratosphere as last year when it comes to health. They’ve already used more starting lineups this season than they did last season and lead the league in starting lineup variations.

There’s only so much they can control, but at the same time, they seem to be getting a handle on things and getting better at rolling with the punches when they do come. That’s good too, because another punch landed on Tuesday when it was announced that reigning All-Star and Defensive Player of the Year Evan Mobley will miss one to three weeks with a calf strain.

That’s a shame for obvious reasons. Mobley had been playing his ever-present lock-down defense both in the paint and on the perimeter and was looking more aggressive offensively. Mobley has simply looked more comfortable attacking the rim and taking shots derived from his back-to-the-basket game. This all culminated in a 29-point effort against a defensively weak-willed Sacramento Kings’ front-court this past Sunday.

That effort was one of Atkinson’s recent sources of positivity. The Cavaliers’ coach glowed about Mobley after the game, even making the comparison that he was playing in as dominant of a fashion as Shaquille O’Neal. Mobley downplayed the comparison. To be fair, Mobley is very much not the same body type as O’Neal was in his heyday, but Mobley did directly state he felt dominant on that night, all the same. Quite frankly, he was.

And apparently, Cleveland’s recent success has Atkinson in the mood for comparisons. After their most recent win vs. Orlando on Monday, the one that saw Mitchell once again eclipse 40 points, Atkinson compared the Cavaliers’ star guard and part-time Carmax spokesman to NBA Hall of Famer Dwyane Wade.

Reading this today, with such a short time span between the Shaq comparison for Mobley and the Wade comparison for Mitchell struck me. Of course, both O’Neal and Wade played on the 2005-2006 Miami Heat, a team that brought Miami their first NBA Championship. And now, part of me expects that Atkinson will come out and say that Jarrett Allen is Udonis Haslem or something if the Cavs are able to take care of business against the Lakers on Wednesday night.

In all seriousness, these comparisons by Atkinson are interesting. I can’t help but wonder how purposeful they are. Perhaps they are in an effort to boost the confidence of a team that seems to be gathering momentum. If nothing else, there do seem to be some coincidences between the Cavs of today and Heat of twenty years ago.

In the previous (2004-2005) season, the Heat were the 1-seed in the Eastern Conference and failed to make the NBA Finals (sound familiar?). Only three players on the 2005-2006 Heat started 60 or more games (Haslem, Wade and former Cavaliers assistant coach James Posey, for those that were curious). The Cavs, who are similarly oft-injured, are on pace to have 3 players start 60 games or more as well (Mitchell, Mobley and Allen). The Cavaliers presently stand with a 28-20 record at the 48-game mark in this current season. The Heat’s record at the 48-game mark in 2005-2006, you ask? 29-19. Not exactly the same, but darn near close.

So, Mitchell is right. This season isn’t last season. And that’s okay. Teams have been in similar positions as the Cavaliers and still found the pinnacle of success. It helps to have players that have the caliber of Shaquille O’Neal and Dwyane Wade, but at least according to Atkinson, that just might be the talent ceiling for this Cavs’ team.

How Wemby and the Spurs are Ready to Foil the OKC Thunder

Being the only team with 10 wins in December, the San Antonio Spurs are the NBA’s hottest team right now (and I don’t just say that because they have my Cavs up next in a matter of hours). More than that though, I also think San Antonio is the league’s best challenger to the current Finals favorites in Oklahoma City.

To be fair and adding to my point, San Antonio has already challenged the Thunder and succeeded in doing so. Three of those ten December wins for the Spurs have been at the hands of OKC. Thunder star point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander may have said it best recently, admitting that you don’t lose to a team three times in a row in a short time span without them being better than you. The people that invented the NBA playoffs would argue it is actually four times that seals the deal, but his point stands. Despite Oklahoma City being an awe-inspiring 27-2 against every other team, they have lost all three of their match ups against San Antonio, and now SA is directly behind them in second place in the Western Conference standings.

Of course, there is one 7 foot 4, 235 pound French shadow that towers over this entire discussion. I came to this realization about the Spurs (and so did many others) in part from watching their efforts during the high-octane games of the NBA Cup. The one thing that stuck out to me most though, is that despite not being fully recovered from injury, despite a thin frame for his size, despite being just 22 years of age and in just his third NBA season, Victor Wembanyama is the most game-changing player in the league, and might be on his way to being the Association’s best player.

Wembanyama is 4th in the NBA’s Player Impact Estimate stat, trailing only Nikola Jokic (multi-MVP winner), Giannis Antetokounmpo (multi-MVP winner) and Gilgeous-Alexander (last year’s MVP). Wemby outpaces where SGA was in his age-22 season by far. At age 22, Shai had a season that saw him step up a level, getting over the 20 PPG plateau and increasing his assists, but he was 29th in PIE. Jokic and Anteotkounmpo might be the better comparisons for Wemby, having both come over from international play as opposed to playing in the NCAA. Still, Jokic and Antetokounmpo finished their own age-22 seasons 9th and 8th in PIE, respectively. The Alien outpaces them at this juncture of his career, at least through just under half of the season.

Statistically, Wembanyama has been great all-around. Due to his size and mobility, Wembanyama’s defensive proficiency in a lot of ways is turn-key. He looms massive in the paint. He has not just led the league in Blocks per game in his first two seasons, but has led them with an average margin of 1.3 Blocks per Game between him and second place. He is the only player in the league to average more than 3 Blocks per Game in the last two seasons. Yet, due to his frame and mobility, he can also defend the perimeter. He isn’t a defensive liability that becomes barbecue chicken when switched onto in the pick and roll, and his massive length and wingspan likely help keep him in plays where a guard does beat him with a quick first step. Certainly, there is some nuance to the game that Wemby has and will continue to pick up at the highest level, but he entered the league as one of its best defensive players a little over two years ago and I think there’s little doubt he could be the Defensive Player of the Year in any year from the next several seasons.

The interesting thing about how Wembanyama has improved himself offensively this year though is his shot diet. Last year, Wemby’s average shot was 17 feet from the rim. This year, it is less than 12 feet from the rim. He has done this (or perhaps the Spurs coaching staff has helped scheme this) by increasing his shots at the rim by six percentage points. Wembanayama’s shots in what I will refer to as the “short mid-range” (10-16 feet) have also gone up by about 5 percentage points. In general, Wemby’s is just shooting more 2-point shots this year. Last year, just over half of his shots were twos. This year, it is about three out of every four. Based on being about a 58% shooter overall from 2-point range and a 35% 3-point shot-maker, twos are actually a more efficient shot for Wembanyama despite being worth one less point, so this tweak has been to his benefit. His shot percentages for twos and threes have held steady from last year but his overall FG% has gone up, because he’s taking more of the shots that he makes more often, and because he is legitimately more efficient with his twos, his True Shooting% has gone up.

Being aggressive and getting closer to the rim has also helped him draw more fouls. Wemby averaged just over 4 free throws per game last season. This year, he is averaging 6.5. At a quality FT% of 84% over the last two seasons, that’s easy money. He is scoring an additional 2 Points per Game off of free throws alone this year.

What strikes me most about Wembanyama though isn’t statistical. In watching him and the Spurs play lately, I am drawn in by how much attention he draws from his opponents at both ends of the floor. Defensively, not only does he lead the league in blocks, but he alters shots at the rim at an incredibly high rate. Driving players have to change the angle of their layups to get around his height, leading to decreased make percentages. That goes without mentioning any decreased interest teams have at attacking the rim when he is on the floor in the first place.

I admittedly don’t have numbers for this, but in the games I have seen, it feels like Wembanyama gets double-teamed a lot on the offensive end. He has to be up there with the most doubled players in the league. Alternatively, teams will find other creative ways to defend him. For much of one of their recent games, the Thunder put a significantly smaller guard in Alex Caruso on Wembanyama, hoping to use Caruso’s active hands to generate steals. This failed to slow Wemby.

In the three games the San Antonio played against Oklahoma City, Wembanyama averaged a +/- of +15.7. I want to remind you that OKC has looked far and away like the best team in the league this season. Their own point differential for the season is +14.2. No one else is in double-digits. Wembanyama turned that success upside down.

And while I have glowed over Wemby for most of this post, and deservedly so, the Spurs aren’t just a one-man show. You don’t get to be the second best team in the West with just one player, especially when that player has missed about 30% of your games.

The Spurs collectively do three things really well. They’ve shot the ball really well this season. They keep opposing teams off of the free throw line. They end possessions with their defensive rebounding. All this has amounted to San Antonio being the only team in the NBA in the top 5 in both Offensive and Defense Rating.

Let’s start with the non-Wemby part of the offense.

When forward Harrison Barnes joined the Spurs last season, he ended up having the best three-point shooting campaign of his career (43%). This season, he has stayed at the 40% mark for made threes, something he only did once in his twelve years in the league before joining San Antonio. Barnes has kept this strong three-point rate despite the fact he is shooting threes more frequently than he has in any of the last six seasons. It seems the Spurs’ coaching staff have unlocked something with Barnes, and he could be an important veteran marksman with playoff experience.

Small forward Keldon Johnson was the focal point of San Antonio’s offense in the unfortunate season that saw them play so poorly that they would end up having the first pick in the 2023 Draft (where they would take Wembanyama). That heightened role for Johnson was clearly a mis-cast. He would score a career high 22 PPG, but shot the worst efficiency of his career while far and away leading the Spurs in Usage Rate. The win-loss results spoke for themselves. The Spurs were no better in the games Johnson played than the games that he missed that year, and they were a bad team at all times.

Johnson is excelling as a role player this season though. While he is shooting less than any season since his rookie year, the shots he is taking are going in at an ultra high rate. He too has changed his shot diet, completely eliminating mid-range shots from his game and getting more attempts at the rim than at any other time in his career. This has proven highly successful as he is one of just 22 players in the league this season was a True Shooting % above 67%, which is far and away a career best.

From a volume perspective, there were some questions about if point guard De’Aaron Fox would be the right running-mate for Wembanyama, but to this point, results have been positive. Fox has never been considered an especially good shooter in his career, but at 28 years old he is shooting threes better than any other season. In fact, he is mere decimal points away from being rounded up in the 40% club with Barnes and Johnson. This is important, because schematically the Spurs have asked Fox to be less of the slasher that he was in Sacramento and more of an outside shooter. Nearly 40% of the shots he has taken are threes, which is the highest rate of his career. This is likely a reaction to the inside attention that teams have paid to Wembanyama, which has clogged the paint. Holistically, the switch to San Antonio seems to have benefited Fox. He is playing some of his strongest ball of his career. To this point in the season, his Win Shares per 48 is the best of his career.

As for defense, as mentioned, the Spurs do two things really well. They don’t foul and they clean the defensive glass. This is interesting because this season has largely seen a change in defensive philosophy inspired by what might be San Antonio’s biggest new rival.

I am simplifying, but a lot of what has made OKC successful in the last couple of seasons has been their tendency to relentlessly pressure the opposing team’s ball-handler and generate turnovers (which leads to empty possessions for their opponents and fast-breaks for them). Indiana used a similar formula to push themselves to the Finals last season. That ball-pressure can generate turnovers and wear opposing teams out from a conditioning standpoint, but it also generates more fouls.

This year, the secret is out. We can tell this is the case because the median NBA team is fouling an additional 2 times per game this season compared to last. Like most leagues, the NBA is a copycat league. The hot new thing is to pressure the basketball and if you pick up a couple of fouls in the process, so be it.

San Antonio, by their nature, isn’t a heavy fouling team. They have seen their number of fouls increase this year, like most of the league, but they are still just 5th overall in Personal Fouls called against them. The Spurs are 5th in Defensive Rating despite having just 2 players with over 2.5 Fouls per Game. Detroit, who is 2nd in Defensive Rating has five such players. This low foul rate means San Antonio allows the 4th fewest Free Throws in the league.

And yes, that lack of pressure does mean that the Spurs do not generate a lot of turnovers. They are 22nd in generating them. That doesn’t matter as much though when Wemby is the most prolific defensive rebounder in the sport. He currently leads the NBA in Defensive Rebounding %. At 11.3 Defensive Rebounds per 36 minutes, no one pulls them down at a greater rate, with almost a full rebound between him and Miami’s Kel’el Ware in second place.

Even in the games Wembanyama has missed though, the Spurs have had this commitment to ending their defensive possessions with rebounds. San Antonio holds opponents to 10.2 Offense Rebounds per Game. That’s tied for the best average in the league with the Knicks. In the 12 games Wemby has not played in, opponents average just 9.8 Offensive Rebounds. Young forward Julian Champagnie has joined Johnson as two players who seem to have especially picked up the slack in games where Wembanyama has sat. They both have multiple games over double-digit rebounds in Wemby’s absence.

This all goes without mentioning the young group of guards the Spurs have in Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell and rookie/2nd overall pick Dylan Harper. Vassell, the most senior of the three, has logged the most minutes on the team, put up the most shots and is contributing 15.3 Points per Game. Castle is in his second season and has taken a leap, putting up about 19 points and 7 assists, taking a lot of the ball-handling pressure off of Fox and looking like a legitimate third option on the floor. The Spurs also have the luxury of bringing the 2nd overall pick in the draft off of the bench and allowing him to provide an offensive spark that way. Paired with Johnson, the combination of both of them average 25 Bench Points per game. San Antonio finds itself in a position where it could hoard all this young guard talent and have a deep bench in the present and opportunity to re-load in the future, or they can trade from their surplus or if they need to cover for injuries on their roster in the future.

And that brings us to that future. I don’t know if this particular iteration of San Antonio is title-bound, but this is surely the best opportunity that this proud NBA franchise has had in nearly a decade. There is a heavy field to play against, and in particular, I think the Thunder make for an interesting foil for the Spurs, even if they have beaten them three times this regular season. Their differences on the defensive end alone allow for some intrigue, let alone having games with two of the five best players in the sport on the floor every time.

While the Thunder may stand in the Spurs’ way, so possibly could their own health. I have mentioned in passing how Wembanyama has missed time this year- twelve games to be exact. Fox has missed nine. So has Castle. I’m getting way ahead of myself, but this San Antonio group could be a game-changing dynasty. Spurs-Thunder could be the new age Cavaliers-Warriors (I’m sure Adam Silver would love that considering the market sizes!). But a lot of that hinges on the joints, cartilage and ligaments of a 7 foot 4 Frenchman capable of moving nothing like the basketball world has seen before. Wemby and the Spurs could be Steph and the Warriors. They could also be Dwight Howard and the Magic, burning fast and bright before meeting their full destiny. They could also be Derrick Rose and the Bulls, a sure contender halted in their tracks by devastating injury.

We’ve been here before on this type of precipice. We’ve been here before with the Spurs being poised to be one of the best teams of the next ten years. And yet, looking at the type of player that Wembanyama is, we’ve also never ever been here before.

The Cavs Missing Offensive Piece Might Not Be Who You Think It Is

I think that most Cavaliers fans would agree that at the 25-game mark, they would have expected more from a team that seemed poised to threaten to make the NBA Finals coming into this season. But instead, here we are.

The Cavs currently stand at 14-11 and in 8th place in an Eastern Conference where they were expected to be one of the two best teams in the field, at worst. Expectations were high coming off of a 2024-2025 campaign that may have ended in an underwhelming fashion, but that saw them arguably sport one of the best offenses in league history.

Kenny Atkinson’s squad hasn’t been able to recreate the magic that made Cleveland not only successful last season, but one of the most fun teams to watch in recent memory. The Cavs led the NBA in scoring last season at a staggering 121.9 Points per Game. The were holistically a great offense, leading the NBA in Offensive Rating as well as in efficiency via True Shooting%. Simply put, the Cavs’ offense for the 2024-2025 season wasn’t just a runaway train. It was a marvel of engineering. It was a delight to watch due to the democratic way in which the team passed and played a beautiful brand of basketball, but also for its lack of wasted motion- its incredible efficiency.

So far this season Cleveland is a good, but pedestrian by comparison 9th in Points per Game. Their Offensive Rating places them in a very similar 10th, but more shockingly, their efficiency has taken a severe downturn. The Cavs currently rank 20th in True Shooting% as they have seen both their regular field goal percentage decrease as well as their rates from behind the three-point line.

Many people thought that Cleveland would take a positive step upon the return of All-Star point guard Darius Garland after the beginning of Garland’s season was delayed in recovery from an injury he incurred in last season’s playoffs. Garland’s return could have been a second opportunity for the Cavs’ season to take off. Instead, not only did Garland find himself back out of the lineup due to injury after just a few games (he has since returned again, although the coaching staff is being careful with his use), but the Cavaliers are just 4-5 in games that he has played.

The 2-time All-Star and former 5th overall pick hasn’t been the jump start that Cleveland hoped he would be. The sample is small at only 9 games, but at this point, he is averaging his lowest Points per Game since his rookie season (14.0) while actually shooting less efficiently than he did in his rookie year (a rough 48.6% TS%).

One can look at Garland’s absence as well as his ineffectiveness at the offensive end so far this season and try to point a finger at these being the Cavaliers’ biggest issues (at least offensively). Additionally, the Cavs have been bereft of the opportunity to have their entire roster at any point this season due to injuries. Sharp-shooting guard Sam Merrill was off to a hot start but has only played in 12 games due to injury. Key off-season acquisition Lonzo Ball has purposely been slow-played in order to retain his health. Max Strus hasn’t seen the floor yet this season. No Cavalier has played in every single game, including star guard Donovan Mitchell.

Garland certainly hasn’t been his best upon his return, and all these injuries have hurt, but there is one more absence that I think has had a particularly surprising impact on the Cavs’ offense. Believe it or not, I think that Cleveland’s offense misses injured center Jarrett Allen’s presence significantly.

I know this seems counter-intuitive. I acknowledge that Allen is correctly perceived as a defense-first center without much of a bag on the offensive end. I know he isn’t much of a shooter and definitely doesn’t create for himself the way that Mitchell or Garland do. But let me explain.

Allen’s offensive role with the ball in his hands is quite limited, but he does possess strong qualities. He is good around the rim, a great roll-man/lob threat on the pick & roll and a good interior passer.

As mentioned, the Cavaliers had an exceptional ’24-’25 season that saw them as one of the best offenses in the history of the sport. Allen played all 82 games in what amounted to a 64-18 campaign. While Allen isn’t a shooter from distance, he was phenomenal on the shots around the rim and in the paint that he did take. He quite literally led the NBA in Field Goal% at 70.6%, which makes for an obvious way that he contributed to one of the most effective and efficient offenses in the recent history of the sport.

While Allen’s ’24-’25 season was a high water mark for his efficiency, he generally can be depended upon to score around the rim at an efficient level. His Field Goal% for his career is 3rd best among all active players at over 63%. Interestingly, Allen has still been good enough to lead the Cavaliers in Field Goal% this season, but is currently having the worst shooting season of his career at 57.3%. At just 27 years old, I would not expect regression to be a factor here, but the time Allen has missed this season is largely due to injuries to his hands. If his hands have been ailing him, it only makes sense that the touch that he puts on the ball would be hampered.

But even with injury and at a reduced level of effectiveness, I feel like Allen’s presence has been a pivot point for the Cavs’ success this season. Cleveland has still been a better offensive team when Allen is on the floor.

As mentioned, his Field Goal% still leads the team, even if injuries have brought him down a couple of notches. Allen has also pulled down 2.4 Offensive Rebounds per Game, narrowly missing the team lead in this stat as big man Evan Mobley has pulled down 2.5. However, Allen’s offensive rebounding rate is even more prolific as he leads the Cavs in Offensive Rebound%. (minimum 13 games played and 24 minutes per game… sorry Nae’quan Tomlin). Both figures have Allen in the top 25 in the NBA, so while he hasn’t been in the very top tier, he has been a legitimate contributor. When combined with the efforts of Mobley (and perhaps Tomlin), Cleveland can mount a force on the offensive glass.

What I find most interesting though is that the Cavs play at a measurably faster Pace when Allen is on the floor. You wouldn’t think this would be the case. Allen isn’t unathletic or anything, but you wouldn’t think that the Cavs are at their fastest when their biggest man is on the floor. At a rate of 105.3, this beats out even Lonzo Ball and his penchant for pushing the ball on the break.

So in totality, Allen increases the number of possessions that Cleveland gets not only via second chance opportunities but also because something about his presence on the floor increases the rate at which the Cavs take shots. Couple that with his own ability to put the ball in the basket at a high success rate, and you can see why Allen has the 2nd Best Offensive Rating on the team (missing 1st by just 0.1) and the 2nd Best Net Rating on the team (behind Donovan Mitchell in both categories, who should get Most Valuable Player votes if he keeps his own season going).

But there still seems to be something else going on when Allen is on the floor beyond his own individual performance. Perhaps it is solely a function of his own efficiency, but the Cavaliers’ effective Field Goal% is .568 when Allen is on the floor. If that figure was Cleveland’s overall eFG%, it would be good for 6th place in the NBA. Without Allen on the floor, their eFG% is .528, which if it were their overall rate, would tie them with Brooklyn for 24th. Adding to this, the Cavs’ Offensive Rating with Allen on the floor is 122.7, which would have them as the 2nd best offense in the league. Without him on the floor, their Offensive Rating is 114.5, which would have them in 16th.

What I find most odd about this is that while Allen himself isn’t a three-point shooter, his presence on the floor seems to also affect Cleveland’s ability to shoot the ball from deep. I wasn’t able to find a specific “on-off” stat for this, but by my own math, the Cavaliers have shot 35.7% from three in games where Allen plays this season. In games that Allen has missed, they shoot just 32.3% from beyond the arc. Neither of those rates are especially good, but let’s just say that the Cavs go from being the 20th to dead last in three-point shooting in the comparison between those two rates. That’s right. If Jarrett Allen isn’t on the floor, the Cavs have shot threes at a percentage that would be worst in the league if compared to all other teams.

I can only speculate, but I feel like Allen puts pressure on the Cavaliers’ opponents to guard the paint in a way that teams don’t necessarily have to do when he isn’t playing. His ability to run to the rim, roll hard off of picks and the positions he places himself in on the floor cause defenses to have to cover not just east, west, and north at the three-point line, but also south towards the rim. This creates more shooting space and better shots for the shooters that are on the floor.

We could say that Mobley does this as well, but my perception is that Mobley tends to position himself in different spots more in the mid-range portion of the floor, therefore not creating the same spacing.

On the subject of Mobley, while the long-term narrative has been that Allen and Mobley are a tough sell to play together on the floor, especially offensively, because of their lack of effective outside shooting, they’ve actually been good together this season. When Allen and Mobley are on the floor together, the Cavs outscore their opponents by 10.3 points per 100 possessions. This outpaces the Cavaliers’ overall net rating, which is just over 3 points per 100. The only player Allen is better on the floor with this season is Jaylon Tyson (+10.7 points per 100 possessions).

Put it all together and it appears then that Cleveland’s offense while Allen is on the floor isn’t quite best in class, but is among still the best. When is he isn’t on the floor though, the Cavaliers’ offense appears to be very run-of-the-mill.

So like I said, I know it seems counter-intuitive, but Jarrett Allen’s ability to score around the rim makes him efficient in his own right. He creates more possessions for his team both via offensive rebounds and by the pace that the Cavs’ play at when he is on the floor. His teammates also shoot and play more effectively when he is on the floor this season. They shoot threes better and Allen in combination with Mobley has been a positive as opposed to a detriment.

Is it that wild to think that the Cavaliers are missing Jarrett Allen’s presence right now?

Bieber Accepting Option Was Weird; But Possible Sign of Blue Jays’ Road to Redemption

One of the first moves of the baseball off-season was when former Guardian and current Blue Jays pitcher Shane Bieber decided return to Toronto for 2026 by picking up the 1-year, $16 million option on his contract. The right-handed former ace’s decision was surprising for many.

Previous to his time in Toronto, Bieber had spent the vast majority of 2024 on the Injured List for Cleveland and spent essentially all of the first half of 2025 rehabbing from Tommy John Surgery before being traded at the July 31st deadline to Toronto.

However, Bieber would make his 2025 MLB debut on August 28th. He would make 7 regular season starts for Toronto and in those starts seemed to be pitching with a clean bill of health. To that point, he would throw just over 40 innings and pitch to a 3.57 ERA. That ERA would propel him to an ERA+ of 120 (100 is average, higher is better) and Bieber would average just over 5 2/3 innings per appearance in his return. So while he maybe didn’t pitch with the same effectiveness of his career ERA+ of 132, he was strong and healthy enough to pitch nearly 6 innings per appearance in a league where pitching that deep into ballgames is becoming less and less common.

Additionally, Bieber was part of the playoff equation for the Blue Jays in October. He made 5 appearances overall including 4 starts and while his numbers didn’t especially stand out, he held his own against the likes of the Yankees, Mariners and Dodgers. He pitched to a 3.86 ERA and more importantly, utilized his control, which is his best attribute as a pitcher. No one on the Blue Jays staff who threw 10 or more playoff innings had a better walk rate than Bieber.

All of this is to say, that while Bieber wasn’t in the ideal scenario that you would want to me in to be an upcoming free agent, he had done a lot in the last 3 months of MLB play to make a case for a significant contract.

Let’s remember that a little less than a year ago, the Detroit Tigers penned a contract with another former Guardian pitcher in Alex Cobb. In that deal, the Tigers signed Cobb to a 1-year, $15 million contract despite the fact that Cobb had dealt with myriad injuries in the last 18 months, had thrown just 16 innings in 2024 and was unclear on when he would be healthy for the 2025 season. Cobb never actually stood in the middle of the diamond for the Tigers in 2025. Apparently though, the nearly 60 innings of effective pitching that Bieber put together in 2025, his youth, the fact that he should be ready to pitch as at the start of 2026 and his Cy Young Award are worth only $1 million more than Cobb made just a year ago (not accounting for inflation either, of course!).

Then there’s Lucas Giolito. Once the ace of the Chicago White Sox, Giolito had a 3.47 ERA (129 ERA+) in 72 starts between 2019 and 2021. In contrast, Giolito would noticeably under-perform in 2022, pitching to a worse than league average 4.90 ERA in 30 starts. He would seem to bounce back in 2023, in 21 starts for Chicago he would throw to a 3.79 ERA, but the wheels would fall off after a deadline trade to the Angels. Giolito would bounce between Anaheim and Cleveland (remember that?!) to end the season and arguably put up his worst performances as a big leaguer. He would be worth -1.2 Wins Above Replacement in just 63 1/3 innings pitched in his time with the two teams. His ERA would be an ugly 6.96. He allowed 21 home runs in the 12 starts he would make after being traded and for the overall season would lead baseball in home runs allowed. His full season ERA would ultimately land just under 5.

In short, Giolito wasn’t very good and was trending the wrong direction. Even so, following that 2023 campaign he signed a 2-year, $38.5 million deal with the Boston Red Sox. You read that right. Despite all of his misfortune on the mound, Giolito got a 2-year deal making $19.25 million per year.

And yet, here is Bieber, opting in to a 1-year, $16 million deal. Admittedly, the news of Bieber agreeing to his option isn’t exactly fresh. It broke a little less than two weeks ago. But I have been sitting with it and stewing on it and I just can’t get over it. Something doesn’t compute. I am inclined to think one of two things is going on.

First, it is possible that the free agent market for this off-season is just going to be unpredictable because this is the last year of Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players’ Union’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. I can envision that Bieber has decided to take this one year option because he believes the free agent market is going to be diluted by teams having concern over the “uncertainty” of the future of baseball’s financial system. This would potentially be a pragmatic approach by Bieber. Come back to Toronto, show out even more in 2026 and try to make the most money possible once the rules of the road are once again cleared up after CBA negotiations.

I have also heard from shows/podcasts that I listen to that Bieber opting in must be a prologue to an extension that he is working out with Toronto. That too could have some merit, and really leads me into my other possibility, regardless of whether or not Bieber seeking an extension is entirely true.

Bieber, the other players in Toronto, the organization at large and the fans- I can only imagine have a strong feeling of unfinished business right now. Being a Cleveland baseball fan, I can empathize. They got literally as close as possible to winning a World Series as they could without actually doing it. Bieber, of course, played a major role in their undoing, allowing the go-ahead home run to Dodgers’ catcher Will Smith in extra innings of Game 7 of the World Series.

I’m not naive. I know money is one of the most prominent motivating factors for baseball players in where they decide to play when given the choice, but I don’t think it is the only factor. After getting that close, particularly after having worked so hard to rehab and get back into games and then have some legitimately good moments along with one really painful one, I wouldn’t blame Bieber in the slightest for wanting to run it back in Toronto.

And yes, maybe an extension is on the horizon. Bieber had only known Cleveland’s professional organization since being drafted by the team in the 4th Round of the Amateur Draft in 2016. When he went to Toronto though, he went to an organization led by Team President Mark Shapiro. Shapiro had been in the same role in Cleveland as recently as just months before Bieber’s drafting. Shapiro’s lineage continues in current Guardians’ Team President Chris Antonetti and General Manager Mike Chernoff.

Bieber was also one of six former Cleveland organization players to play for Toronto in the 2025 playoffs (Bieber, Andres Gimenez, Ernie Clement, Myles Straw, Anthony Santander, Nathan Lukes). That’s nearly a quarter of their roster. So while Bieber left Cleveland, his destination was about as close to the Guardians organization that you can possibly get. Even the playoff outcomes are on brand, though the financial resources are more robust with the Blue Jays.

The point here is that not only does the way in which the season ended leave Bieber invested in a return, perhaps even at a discount, but in a lot of ways the comfort-ability and culture that he feels may also have been a draw. I know all I am doing is speculating, but if I’m onto something, I would applaud Bieber for making a decision to stick with not just what he knows but what has proven to be successful on the field. I would applaud him for wanting a second chance to get to redeem his personal 1997 Charles Nagy moment.

I think the real question here is if other players will follow in kind. I don’t just mean Toronto’s free agent infielder Bo Bichette either. I wonder if such a prominent World Series outcome, an infectious offensive strategy that mixes the long-ball with fundamentals, and the opportunity to play with Vladimir Guerrero Jr will draw many free agent’s attention to the Blue Jays. For their part, Toronto has the backing of an entire country behind them. They have the financial resources to support free agent reinforcements. With how close they got, it may not even take all that much more.

After losing in the World Series in 2014, the Kansas City Royals went out and got DH Kendrys Morales and SP Edinson Volquez in free agency. They would go on to add utility-man Ben Zobrist and another SP in Johnny Cueto at the deadline. These were savvy moves, but weren’t super-ultra attention-getters. Between all four players there are six career All-Star appearances and one Silver Slugger Award. Those four players would help propel the Royals to the Commissioner’s Trophy in 2015.

Toronto doesn’t need to run out and convince Kyle Tucker to come north of the border. They don’t need to have feel anxiety because of what happened in the past when they tried to court Shohei Ohtani. They just need to find the right mix of veteran talent that’s still got something left in the tank and wants to get over the hump as badly as they do right now.

Can they do it? For what its worth, I think at least Shane Bieber thinks so.

Carl Willis Will Return & The Pitching Factory’s Sustainability

If you have read the news that Carl Willis intends to return as Guardians’ pitching coach in 2026, you likely breathed a small sigh of relief (and if hadn’t read that, you can let it out now!). Part of me wouldn’t blame you. Willis’s reputation as one of the best pitching coaches in the sport presently, and perhaps in the sport’s history, has solidified over the years.

That reputation is largely staked on being the pitching coach for five different Cy Young Award winners over the course of a a 20-year career with Cleveland (in two different stints) as well as Seattle and Boston. To put it another way, if you’re a fan of a team which Willis has been a pitching coach of, there’s a 1 out of 4 chance that the Cy Young Award winner in your league is on your team in that given year. That’s how prolific his time has been.

The other item that Willis has most been able to stake his reputation on is the “pitching factory” that he has helped develop in Cleveland. These items go hand in hand because when you think of that “pitching factory”, you probably think of how Cleveland has developed pitching stars and award winners like CC Sabathia, Cliff Lee and Shane Bieber. However, this phenomenon also relates to the Guardians and Willis’s ability to get the most out of all pitchers- not just his stars that could win hardware. This is especially true in his most recent tenure with the team that started in 2018.

Former Guardians pitcher Mike Clevinger pitched to a 3.52 ERA in 186 2/3 IP in Cleveland under his first pitching coach, Mickey Callaway (another great pitching coach, but reportedly with severe issues off the field). Clevinger pitched to a noticeably better 2.92 ERA in 348 2/3 IP under Willis in Cleveland. Although Clevinger’s worse numbers under Callaway could be attributed to being a younger, more inexperienced pitcher, or a smaller sample size, Clevinger also never pitched better after departing Cleveland than he did under Willis. His ERA was actually a much worse 4.27 in his years after making his exit from the Guardians and he only pitched in 8 MLB games in 2025 at the age of 34.

Another recent example of a pitcher finding his best success specifically under Willis was former Guardians starter Cal Quantrill. All four of Quantrill’s seasons in Cleveland match up with Willis’s tenure and in those seasons, Quantrill pitched to a 3.58 ERA and an above average ERA+ of 114. In his other seasons in the Majors, both before and after his time in Cleveland, Quantrill’s ERA punches in at an ugly 5.24. In no other stop outside of Cleveland has he performed as an above average pitcher by ERA+.

Willis’s successes aren’t just limited to the starting rotation though. Enyel de los Santos, a journeyman of a relief pitcher who has pitched for 8 teams in his 7 MLB seasons, had his best numbers in his 2 years with the Guardians, despite them being the largest sample to draw from.

De Los Santos pitched to a 3.18 ERA in 119 innings for Cleveland in 2022 and 2023. This is far and away the most MLB action he has seen with any team as he was a significant contributor for Cleveland in those two years. His ERA for every other team he has pitched for combined is a full two runs higher at 5.21 over the course of 195 1/3 innings. Yes, you could consider these samples small and unreliable, but a full two runs difference specifically when he was with Cleveland is quite noticeable.

Interestingly, while Willis’s reputation can be staked back to his first go-round in Cleveland, starting in 2003 as the pitching coach for Eric Wedge, this more recent foray in Cleveland seems to really be the most prominent success of his career. While he has only been at the helm for a single Cy Young Award since re-joining Cleveland in 2018 (Bieber in 2020, also a shortened season) Cleveland is 4th in ERA and 6th in FIP since he took up the mantle as Terry Francona’s pitching coach.

None of his previous time-spans as a pitching coach measure up to this. In fact, you could make the argument that up until this stop in Cleveland, maybe Willis’s reputation was a little out-sized. His teams often finished middle of the pack in stats like staff ERA or FIP over his time in town. While individual pitchers like Sabathia, Lee and the infamous 2016 AL Cy Young Award winner Rick Porcello (another example of a pitcher having his best success under Willis) flourished and won awards under him- the overall body of work was actually a little less impressive.

All of this is to say, that while Willis is currently 64-years old and it seems that his continued work as the Guardians pitching coach seems to be hinging on a year-to-year basis, he is seemingly doing the best work of his career. What we have seen from the Guardians’ pitching staff- most recently carrying this most recent iteration of the team so that they could overcome a 15.5 game deficit to win the American League Central division- has been remarkable.

I understand though if the tenuous nature of Willis’s future gives some fans pause, but I don’t think that is entirely necessary. The Guardians pitching infrastructure has weathered a lot in recent years. By my count, at least three current MLB pitching coaches were pilfered from lesser roles in the Guardians organization (Ruben Niebla for the Padres; Matt Blake for the Yankees; Brian Sweeney for the Royals). There are likely other underlings that have also been pulled away to work in other organizations. Yet, the Guardians pitching factory continues to bang out success after success, year after year.

I think it is very easy to look at coaching staff roles like pitching coaches and think that the type of success the Guardians have built starts and ends with one man. But in 2025, baseball teams have organizational philosophies on pitching (and hitting… and base-running… and defensive positioning… and countless other things). These philosophies aren’t the brain-work of any single individual. They are built upon the consensus of smart baseball people and they are spread not just across the Major League team but across the entire organization through the minors. Willis’s role is to use his vast experience to be a prominent voice in helping build that consensus. His job is also to express those philosophies- and not solely his own- to his players at the Major League level.

Willis has a major (I emphasize: major) hand in the ideas and methods that have made the Guardians successful. However, this isn’t an “I alone can fix it” situation. While the organization is certainly in fantastic hands right now, there will come a day when he departs, and a lot of the ideas and great habits they have built aren’t going to just wash away because he singularly is gone.

Willis deserves all the respect that he gets. His reputation at this point is rightfully excellent, but so is the Guardians organization’s reputation as a bastion of pitching development overall. That reputation is just as deserved, which should allow all of us to breathe a little easier.

Predicting the Most Exciting Post-Season in Sports

I am ready for a month of anxiety.

That’s where baseball fans are headed. The calm, even at times malaise, of a six-month regular season is about to be replaced with the spastic short-series chaos of the MLB playoffs. Prepare yourselves. For while the 2025 regular season has had several incredibly memorable moments, those moments came from a built-upon extended tension. Cal Raleigh’s 60-homer season as a catcher is awe-inspiring in part due to the sustained excellence of six months of play. The Cleveland Guardians may have changed the course of their season in a way that was historic, but they did it over the course of a month.

The regular season is built on sustained successes day after day. Days turn to weeks. Weeks turn to months. Months turned into full bodies of work that get you into the post-season. For the post-season itself though, the key moments are ridiculously granular. Key at bats turn into key innings. Those innings change wins into losses and vice versa.

The Milwaukee Brewers led baseball with 97 wins this season. If they were to go on to to win the World Series, they will need 11 more wins to do so. I am trying to put this in perspective. If the Brewers proved themselves to be the best team in the sport this year with those 97 wins, then each of the 11 post-season wins they need to cement themselves as the best team in the game are worth about 9 regular season wins.

I hope that makes sense. The point I am trying to make is the incremental difference we see between how teams established themselves to get here and the sheer impact of individual games from hereon out. That’s what makes the MLB playoffs arguably the most exciting and drama-filled post-season of any major American sport. At this time or year, a switch flips and suddenly an at bat goes from a drop in the bucket to a much more prominent portion of the concoction.

For my part, having the Guardians make the post-season, let alone on an improbable run that saw them stifle a 15.5 game deficit over the course of the second half, makes the scenarios even more intense. However, I think anyone even moderately interested in the sport cannot deny the intensity and myth-making that this portion of the calendar can bring. When thinking of this phenomenon I am reminded of something Oscar Wilde once wrote and that Gene Wilder then made even more famous for less cultured audiences like myself in Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory.

“The suspense is terrible… I hope it lasts”.

And of course, I hope it lasts for my Guardians. That will provide me the most enjoyment. But even if it doesn’t, I will lick my wounds and get engaged all the same in pretty short order. What lies ahead is too compelling not to be drawn back.

With all that said, the other byproduct of all this intrigue is variance. Naturally, the sheer impact of each at bat, inning and game at this point in the calendar is directly tied to the smaller sample in which these games will be played. And that’s fine. I don’t say that to diminish the moment. Baseball has been playing “best of” series to determine its champion in some form for 125 years now. You stand toe-to-toe in October and beat the other best and you get the trophy. Thems the rules that we all agree to. That’s how you earn it.

But that often means, that while they are fun to do, playoff predictions are often not worth the paper they are written on. It is ironic, in a sport that has devoted itself so much to statistical analysis, often being on the cutting edge compared to other professional sports, we accumulate all this data over time to get to this moment.

Well, some of it might be useful now. Some of it might not. And we don’t know exactly which part will be useful. I wouldn’t say throw it all out, but good luck deciphering the right components to tell me what is going to happen 2 minutes, let alone 2 series from now.

Despite all that, it is fun to make predictions. So, in the spirit of that fun, and on the off-chance that I won the lottery in picking the right tidbits that will be put together to predict the October that lies ahead, here is one of the possible 2,048 ways that the MLB post-season could go. I will also provide a few a nuggets of information for each outcome as I see it. I want to directly mention that I am aiming to be objective in these predictions, despite my Guardians fandom. That said, we’re going to rip the band-aid right off and start with my favorite squad of 26.

AL Wildcard Series

Guardians over Tigers in 2.

At this point, I think Cleveland lives rent free in Detroit’s head. Having relinquished a 15.5 game division lead, Detroit stumbled into the playoffs losing 13 of their last 16 including 5 of 6 vs Cleveland in the last two weeks. They have likely back-to-back Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal ready to pitch in Game 1 and the Tigers were 21-10 in games Skubal has started over the course of 2025. However, Cleveland has beaten him twice in two weeks. I’m not sure the mystique is there.

Red Sox over Yankees in 3.

I know Boston is without Roman Anthony, and hasn’t looked like the same offense without him, but Boston has been able to put a lid on one of the best offenses in baseball over the course of their matchups this season. Many prominent pitchers for Boston- Garrett Crochet, Bryan Bello, Lucas Giolito, Aroldis Chapman and Garrett Whitlock- had success vs New York with ERAs at least below 3.50. It’ll be close. This will be (one of) the first Wildcard Series in the 6 team per league format to go to 3 games. Sounds like a perfect billing for Red-Sox Yankees.

NL Wildcard Series

Dodgers over Reds in 2.

Considering the fact that coming into the season, no one expected the Dodgers to need to play in the Wildcard series due to their bevy of talent, it would be absolutely wild if Cincinnati pulled the upset. Considering that the Dodgers outscored the Reds by double in their regular season matchups (30 runs to 15 runs), it would be even that more shocking. That goes without mentioning that the Reds snuck in with just 83 wins with the support of the Mets own late season collapse. Never say never, but I just don’t see it. The Dodgers are veteran enough to take care of business here.

Cubs over Padres in 3.

Speaking of in-season matchups, you can use them to predict absolutely nothing here. Not only did the Padres and Cubs split their season series at 3 games each, but they both scored/allowed 25 runs against each other. Much has been made of the Cubs slowing down and playing near .500 ball in the second half. The Cubs were the 3rd best offense in baseball by wRC+ in the first half and were only 15th in the second half. However, they’re back to 5th place since August 19th. The lull seems to be over. Meanwhile, San Diego is the 3rd worst home run hitting team in the sport in a time of year where one swing is much more important. I like the Cubs. I think they’re legit. More to come.

AL Division Series

Mariners over Guardians in 4.

Like I said, I am being objective. Seattle has the 3rd best pitching staff in the sport by xFIP. With the bye, they are going to get to rest and line up Bryan Woo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller in whatever order they want. Cleveland has hit the ball better during this late season stretch but they have the potential to be overmatched here. Seattle has also hit the 3rd most home runs of any team since the trade deadline. And its not just Cal Raleigh. Julio Rodriguez, Jorge Polanco and Josh Naylor have also slugged over .500 during that span. The Mariners are stacked.

Red Sox over Blue Jays in 5.

Jose Berrios had been moved to the bullpen and then got injured. 41-year old Max Scherzer and his 5.19 ERA are probably going to have to make starts for Toronto. Kevin Gausman and Shane Bieber can be great, but there isn’t much behind them. Down the stretch, Boston really struggled vs left-handed pitching, with an 85 wRC+ in September. However, all the good pitchers Toronto does have are righties, where Boston has been an above average offense, even without Anthony. If you’re looking for an unlikely hero, look out for rookie Nate Eaton who has hit .316 since August 15th.

NL Division Series

Dodgers over Phillies in 5.

Philadelphia’s wRC+ over the course of the season was 109. Against the Dodgers, it was just 72. They hit just .170 against the Dodgers’ pitching staff this season. Four of their starters- Alec Bohm, Brandon Marsh, JT Realmuto and Max Kepler- went a combined 2 for 57. For their part, the Dodgers have gotten strong starting pitching performances from Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell and Clayton Kershaw down the stretch. All three threw more than 40 innings with a FIP better than 3.10 since August 15th. Can Kershaw make a post-season statement in his final innings before retirement?

Cubs over Brewers in 5.

Milwaukee has had a great season, but they were 28th in home runs in September. No one hit more than 3 homers for them in the month. Even worse, none of Christian Yelich, Jackson Churio or Wilson Contreras were league average hitters down the stretch. As said earlier, the Cubs offense has rebounded. To be fair, pitchers Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga haven’t been good lately either for Chicago (5.31 and 6.51 ERAs in September, respectively), but the supporting cast around them has been solid. The bullpen has been led by Brad Keller, Andrew Kittredge and Aaron Civale. All had ERAs of about 2 or lower over the same time frame. I expect them all to help get the ball to Daniel Palencia at the back end, who can lock it down.

AL Championship Series

Mariners over Red Sox in 7.

I didn’t realize I thought as highly as I did of Boston until I did this exercise, but Seattle is just so stacked. Seattle pitching held Boston to a 59 wRC+ in their matchups this season. I mentioned their offense since the trade deadline and their starting rotation, but their bullpen also goes about five deep with lockdown guys. Gabe Speier, Matt Brash and closer Andres Munoz have been particularly good with season FIPs of 3.05 or better. Did I mention Cal Raleigh hit 60 homers while catching? It has nothing to do with the bullpen but needs repeating.

Cubs over Dodgers in 5.

The Cubs have not been a trendy team to pick to get this far. I acknowledge that. However, they outscored the Dodgers 42-31 in their matchups against eachother this year. Pete Crow-Armstrong hasn’t been the same caliber offensively in the second half, but he did hit 4 dingers against the Dodgers earlier this season. I think he can carry that confidence from earlier matchups. They also just recently got a healthy Kyle Tucker back, who not only has post-season experience but has been a long time torn in the sides of the Dodgers. I like the Cubs here to surprise some people.

World Series

Mariners over Cubs in 6.

This is easily Seattle’s best opportunity in more than twenty years to win their first World Series ever. They’ve never even made it to one. What better way to win it than to win it off the last team to break a century-long World Series drought? The Mariners biggest flaw is that they aren’t a very good base-running team. Beyond that, they hit incredibly well(3rd in wRC+ and homers), pitch incredibly well (3rd in xFIP) and field the ball at a decent level (8 Defensive Runs Saved). I think the Cubs are better than they are being perceived, but Seattle has the opportunity to just outgun everyone put in front of them. For the fun of it, let’s go with Julio Rodriguez as World Series MVP. Rodriguez had a 30-30 season while being one of the best center-fielders in baseball. His ability to affect the game in multiple ways makes him a prime MVP candidate.

And that’s my version of what is to come over the next month. If you made it this far, thanks for reading. Here’s to an October that provides a great finish to an already memorable season.

Playing the Schedule Game: Analyzing the Guardians Playoff Chances

2025 has been a roller coaster, with the Guardians performing in both peaks and valleys

Really, nothing at Cedar Point has anything on this Guardians season. As I type this on Tuesday night, Cleveland finds themselves four games above .500. I know that seems pretty run-of-the-mill, but the Guardians have put together a campaign where they have played like a playoff team for ten days and then played some of the worst baseball in the league for two weeks. Then they’ll play great for a week and a half. Then look lost for an extended road-trip. They’ve done this over and over again.

That’s good context, because I- and the Guardians for that matter- are riding high again at the moment. I am writing this after the back-to-back masterful pitching performances of Slade Cecconi and Joey Cantillo against the Royals. The Guardians have looked fabulous in the first two games of a four game series here in early September. So far, they have outscored Kansas City, another team which they are competing with for the final American League Wildcard spot, 12-2 in the series. Simply put, things are looking up… again.

The Guardians went from looking like serious competitors when they took three of four from Detroit at Comerica in May, to looking like pretenders when they followed up that series by going 6-13 in their next 19 games.

They could have been left for dead after losing ten in a row in late June and early July. Or when a sweep at the hands of the Braves in August was followed up with a southwest road-trip that saw them go 1-6.

Instead, here we are. 74-70. A mere 2 games out of the final Wildcard spot.

The good vibes have me thinking. What is it really going to take to close the deal? After more than five months of play, the Guardians, and all MLB teams, are down to less than 20 games remaining in their seasons. The possibilities that were endless when spring was upon us are now becoming quite finite as autumn starts to forebode. We are at a point where we can trick ourselves into drawing conclusions from the remaining schedules. It is NFL season now. Some people love play the schedule game with their NFL team- trying to determine the wins and losses on the upcoming docket. Well, we have a similar number of MLB games left relative to an NFL schedule.

So, I did the same. Using a combination of won-loss records and run differentials both over the course of the entire season and the last forty games, I tried to make some informed determinations on the remaining schedules not just for the Guardians, but for the teams they are competing with for playoff opportunities. Detroit, Seattle, Texas and Kansas City were given consideration. For the sake of time, Tampa Bay didn’t make the cut.

Admittedly, while even having the best intentions and trying to use data to make these determinations, baseball is going to be baseball. The chances of me nailing all of these outcomes is probably pretty low, but I do think there were some things to be learned from the exercise regardless.

And I have to be honest, with all the good feelings I had, the process was a bit sobering. I love how the Guardians have played over the last week or so, but they have some challenges they are up against. I actually ended up running through all five teams schedules twice. In the first iteration, I just played it straight. I tried to make decisions without having the express goal of getting the Guardians into the playoffs. The results, at least from my perspective, weren’t ideal.

Guardians: 9-9 rest of the way, 83-79 overall

Tigers: 9-8 rest of the way, 92-70 overall

Mariners: 12-6 rest of the way, 88-74 overall

Rangers: 12-4 rest of the way, 87-75 overall

Royals: 6-11 rest of the way, 79-83 overall

By these calculations, Detroit retains their commanding lead on the AL Central, winning it by 9 games. Seattle ends up holding on to take the final Wildcard spot while Texas plays incredibly well down the stretch but just barely misses out.

There are a couple things to address here. A lot has been made of how poorly Seattle has played lately. The media has been talking about them as a team that could cough up their spot in the playoffs. To that point, they are 17-16 since August 1st, and have a positive run differential over that time frame. Not amazing, but also not exactly abysmal. They are currently playing a series with St. Louis (below .500 for the season, -30 since August 1), have four games against a lousy Angels team (-129 for the season) and get to play Kansas City and historically bad Colorado yet. The fact of that matter is that while they haven’t been the team that was challenging for the AL West division earlier in the season, they aren’t playing all that poorly and they have some potential easy Ws coming.

Texas is +22 in run differential since August 1st and are among the best teams in their last 10, going 7-3. They get the benefit of playing Miami, who has been putrid as of late (-62 since August 1, went from 53-55 to 66-78) and Minnesota, who has been the worst team in the AL Central since the All-Star Break. They also play Houston, who is actually -29 since August 1st and whose clubhouse is a bit of a mess right now with their pitchers deliberately crossing up their catchers.

But most notably, they play the Guardians in the very last series for both teams’ seasons. That series has the opportunity to decide post-season fates. If I am playing it straight, even with the strong showing this week, I can convince myself that the Rangers will get to 12 wins in their remaining games by winning series vs the Mets, Astros, Marlins, Twins, and yes, Guardians. Texas is playing better ball than Cleveland. Depending on how you measure things, Seattle is too.

The Guards though? To their favor, they get the White Sox and four against Minnesota (ironically, a rain out earlier in the season may work in the Guards’ favor as the Twins’ roster is much worse now than it was then). Unfortunately, they also have nine games to play against Detroit and Texas, and while trying to be perfectly (perhaps overly) objective, I couldn’t bring myself to have the Guardians win any of those series. I still fear this is a .500 team, or slightly above, and my results landed them at .500 the rest of the way, and slightly above for the season.

Like I said earlier though, baseball is going to be baseball. There is a world where things fall more so in the Guardians favor. This is a world where Seattle and Texas continue to get win-loss results closer to .500, like they have been getting. This is a world where Detroit realizes they aren’t playing for much the rest of the way. So, I took another swipe at these predictions and did so not trying to be overly unrealistic, but just with the idea in mind that things could go the Guardians way. Here is what I came up with.

Cleveland: 12-6 rest of the way, 87-75 overall

Detroit: 6-11 rest of the way, 89-73 overall

Seattle: 10-8 rest of the way, 86-76 overall

Texas: 8-8 rest of the way, 83-79 overall

Kansas City: 7-10 rest of the way, 80-82 overall

Cleveland comes up short in the division still, but is able to snatch the final Wildcard spot away by 2 games. I come to this conclusion without having Seattle or Texas below .500, but the Guardians need to pick up the pace. In this scenario, they need to split the remaining 2 games with Kansas City, then take every remaining series, including both against Detroit. Given the fact, I have given them a 2-game lead by the end of the season, they do have a little bit of margin for error on the “win every series” requirement, but it sure does make for a good and obvious goal. 12 wins also seems to be the benchmark. In both scenarios that I put together, 12 wins was the peak and 12 wins either got you in or onto the doorstep of the playoffs.

I’m about to play Captain Obvious here, but for the Guardians to make the playoffs, they are going to have to do something they haven’t been able to do for most of the season. They are going to have to play consistent, winning baseball for more than 2 weeks at a time. As much as the narratives about Seattle are what they are, the numbers suggest those narratives are overstated and the Mariners aren’t going to just hand it over. Even if they do, Texas has played well and has a schedule the rest of the way that they very well could thrash.

I’m not saying there’s no chance, but I am saying that if the Guardians are going to do this thing, it is going to take an impressive run to get it done. It may even come down to the final series of the season.

What I am saying is, stay tuned. This isn’t over, and it could be a lot of fun. Considering the last two nights, it already has been.

If you’re interested in my predictions, I am leaving a screenshot of them below. Forgive the lack of pretty formatting.

Evaluating the Guardians at the 3rd Quarter Pole

Baseball fans (and really fans of everything, in general) are always so eager to make a snap reaction about their team (or anything they’re enthusiastic about) when a season begins. Within a week, some fans surely know that their team is either World Series bound or headed for the dumpster. But we all know these reactions are rarely grounded.

To the contrary, sometimes cliches are true. Baseball really is a marathon. Even the sometimes prescribed waiting period of 40 games to start a season before judging a player or collective team’s talents isn’t nearly enough. You need look no further than the 2019 World Series Champion Washington Nationals, who found themselves with a 16-24 record at the 40-game mark, in order to find a counter example.

I personally find that you usually do have a general idea of what a team might be somewhere between the 40-game mark and Memorial Day, but I also think it is usually a good idea to check back every 40 games or so and re-assess. See what changed. If you are eager to know who will win a marathon then checking on who is doing well on mile 7 is a good idea. Checking back on mile 13 and mile 20 though just seems like an even better idea (not to mention the finish line).

Well, the Major League Baseball season just hit about mile 20 over the past week. The Guardians have played 123 games, or about 76% of their season. This feels like a great time to take some inventory and see where the Guardians stand as the stretch run appears on the horizon. With just under 40 games remaining, there is still plenty of time to speculate on both post-season glory or how the season could end in ineptitude and disappointment. In order to cut through the reckless speculation, let’s take a look at where we have been, in order to have the best idea of where things are going.

At an ultra high level, the Guardians find themselves at a record of 63-60, in 2nd place in the American League Central Division (though 8.5 games back of a very strong Detroit Tigers team) and 3.5 games out of the final Wildcard spot in MLB’s extended playoffs. I wouldn’t even think to suggest that they are in the catbird seat to challenge for a World Series based off these basic facts. However, 3.5 games out of the Wildcard is legitimately within striking distance. It is not absurd that the Guardians could make the playoffs. From there, baseball’s playoffs are famously noisy in terms of outcomes. The right team getting hot at the right time can, and many times does, end up winning the big trophy.

The point is that even though factors are stacked against them, we can squint our eyes and make an argument that this season is very much not over for the Guardians. But we need to deal in shades of gray. Just how likely is it for the Guardians to sustain the quality baseball they have played since the All-Star break and to parlay that into October success?

Let’s look at some specifics and try to get an idea, and in doing so, let’s start with the tough part.

The Offense/Position Players

It is important to remember that 2024’s significantly improved team that made it all the way to the American League Championship Series did so partially on the back of taking a lethargic offense and turning it into a league average one. The Guardians posted a weighted Runs Created+ of exactly 100 (for those that don’t recall, this is an all-inclusive hitting stat where 100 is average and higher numbers are better) in 2024, as it seemed they were starting to build an offensive core that would at least perform competently and could perhaps take another step or two forward in development.

Instead, Cleveland’s offense has taken a noticeable step backward in 2025. They rank 27th of worse in wRC+, On Base Percentage, Slugging Percentage and Barrel Rate. A team that has a recent reputation as a contact hitting team, they actually rank dead last in Batting Average. They also rank dead last in xwOBA, a statistic that measures quality of contact. None of this is good, obviously, and the poor results come despite yet another superb season from Guardians star third baseman Jose Ramirez.

Ramirez is slashing .291/.364/.554. While last season was a marquee season for him because of his near 40 homer-40-double-40 steal totals, he finds himself on pace for similar numbers this year even if not hitting those exact benchmarks. Ramirez is on pace to smack 30 doubles and 33 home runs while he is also on pace for a career high 47 steals. He’s done this while being banged up at times. He’s only missed a few individual games for the Guardians, but did sit out from the All-Star Game in order to heal up. By Wins Above Replacement, Ramirez is on pace for one of the best seasons of what is looking more and more like a Hall of Fame career. The Guardians offense faltering hasn’t been due to any step lost by their most important player.

Additionally, I want to acknowledge how DH/1B Kyle Manzardo has stepped up and emerged as a legitimate threat in the Guardians lineup. Manzardo came up last year as a highly-touted prospect but with little proof of Major League success. That uncertainty was amplified by the fact he struggled early in the 2024 season and was demoted before showing strides later in the year and having positive moments in the playoffs.

2025 has been an opportunity for Manzardo to really establish himself, and he has run with it. He is slashing .238/.323/.476 and is on pace for 19 doubles and 28 homers. If there is any criticism to levy on Manzardo, it is that his skills at first base could use work and he has missed opportunities to play more because of that poor glove as well as how he has been used as a platoon hitter. I will say that it does seem his inability to hit lefties is a little overstated, though his numbers against LHP are juiced by a few homers in a small sample. He is hitting just .182 vs LHP this year. This all suggests to me he isn’t entirely unplayable against lefties and should start some, but is neither an auto-start or auto-bench option against them.

With those positives being established, not much else has been very peachy for the Guards’ offense. Just to get it out of the way, back-up catcher Austin Hedges has been his usual self. He is slashing .139/.229/.243 with a horrid 35 wRC+. But this is who Hedges is at this point. This is who he has been for the last four seasons. This is actually his second-most productive season of these last four. The Guardians signed up for this offensive production when they put him on the roster. It comes with the territory of the defensive savvy and clubhouse vibes that he brings. All that said, he does have more than 130 plate appearance this year, and that isn’t nothing.

From there, it really has been a lost season for outfielder Lane Thomas. Thomas was acquired at the deadline last year from the Washington Nationals and after a rough start was a huge contributor in September and during the playoffs. Part of the reason the Guardians made the deal to acquire him was because he was under contract for 2025 as well and could contribute this season.

This season never got off the ground for Thomas. He was hit by a pitch on the wrist on Guardians’ Opening Day, tried to play through injury, but ultimately ended up on the Injured List. He’s made two more trips to the IL since due to plantar fasciitis that still plagues him now. In his time at the plate, there’s no way around it, Thomas has been awful. He’s has a .160/.246/.272 slash-line, translating to a 47 wRC+. He has 2 doubles and 4 home runs in 39 games played.

I want to emphasize, Thomas is not some buy-low candidate the Guardians picked up in hopes of reclaiming last year. He is a 7-year veteran who hit .250, averaged 20 home runs a season and a 106 OPS+ over the last 3 years before this year. He’s a good ball-player. This year has just been a year of horrific injury luck, to the point that I wonder what his free agency even looks like.

The other side of the coin with Thomas is that he had been slated to play most days in center-field for the Guards. Instead, the team has had to scramble to fill that hole, which has mostly been filled by Angel Martinez.

Martinez is a player that had a lot of buzz after a strong showing in 2024 Spring Training and about his first ten games in the Majors in that same regular season, but he hasn’t been able to show sustained success at the plate in the Majors. Martinez’s plate discipline is lacking. He doesn’t walk. His OBP is just .265, and when he does swing and connect, his quality of contact is the worst on the team by xwOBA. He has some value because of an ability to play several positions, but it is becoming clear he isn’t a prime option as an everyday center-fielder, which he has had to be for most of the season.

Another value decision the Guardians made was to cut ties with Tyler Freeman just before the start of the season, trading him to the Colorado Rockies in exchange for a young player with a history in the organization as well- Nolan Jones. Presumably, this trade was made because Jones had power potential in his profile as a hitter that Freeman did not. However, nothing has gone to plan. Jones’s bat hasn’t been powerful at all. If anything, it has been a wet noodle. His SLG (.297) is lower than his OBP (.309), neither of which are good. In 2023, when Jones looked like a future slugger for the Rockies, 42% of his hits were extra base hits. This season, just 27% of his hits are extra base hits.

To use another hitter for reference, Daniel Schneemann has been a middle of the road bat for the Guards this year (an accomplishment for a former 33rd round pick that wasn’t expected to make it this far, I’m not going to dwell on him long, but shout out to Schneemann and the season he is having, too). 39% of Schneemann’s hits have been of the extra base variety. So, 27% isn’t looking very good, particularly for a guy that was supposed to have power as one of his qualities.

To a lesser extent, shortstop Brayan Rocchio and catcher Bo Naylor have been disappointments as well. Rocchio’s issues are more segregated to the early part of the season when he really struggled. Overall, he hasn’t hit the ball with much authority. He is 2nd worst on the team in Isolated Power, behind Jones, and doesn’t walk enough. His season wRC+ is 74.

However, he was demoted in May and was re-called on July 1st. Since returning, he has been much better, hitting .285. Both of his home runs and 11 of his 14 doubles have come since returning. Rocchio showed flashes last post-season too, so it is hard to say if this new him will be the real him long-term, but he his at least showing strides.

As for the younger Naylor, hitting .184 doesn’t cut it unless you’re Kyle Schwarber. He does walk a lot- in 12.1% of his plate appearances- which keeps him from being entirely unplayable. Still, the organization has invested a lot in Naylor over these last two seasons and the return has been underwhelming.

There are some other players, of course- Schneemann, Steven Kwan and Carlos Santana, among others- but the above are the players that have stood out as particularly good or bad (unfortunately, most have been bad). Everyone else I would rate as some level of acceptable.

Before we move off of the position players, I do want to mention that the Guardians’ fielding has been a positive. Depending on your stat of choice, they are somewhere in the top 6 to top 10 in fielding. Kwan is having another standout year in the field, although interestingly, its his throwing arm that has really set him apart. Kwan leads baseball in outfield assists at last check.

Schneemann has also been excellent despite the fact he’s been asked to play five different positions. He has been an above average fielder at all of them, and has added great defensive versatility to being a solid hitter. And that would bring us to the other, more glamorous portion of run-prevention.

The Pitching: Starters

In a way, the Guardians have actually been pretty fortunate health-wise this season. Kolby Allard and Doug Nikhazy have combined for three spot-starts, outside of that, Cleveland has used 7 starting pitchers in total despite one of them getting suspended for an extended period.

The one other starter that departed the rotation was Ben Lively, who was looking to build on the success he had in reclaiming his career in 2024. Unfortunately, Lively’s season ended early as he needed Tommy John surgery. Results-wise, Lively had been Cleveland’s best starter early on. He posted a 3.22 ERA in his limited time. Some of the underlying metrics though still suggested he was a pitcher that needed a short leash and would struggle in his third time through a lineup. Regardless, he will not been seen again until late 2026 at the soonest.

Also in relation to underlying metrics, Lively’s replacement in the rotation was Slade Cecconi, who the Guardians received from Arizona in the Josh Naylor trade. Cecconi has looked decent, though inconsistent in his time on the big league club this year, a 4.50 ERA would suggest as much. What I find more concerning is that he has given up a lot of home runs while not striking many batters out at times. A team worst Home Runs per 9 Innings rate of 1.7 speaks to this. He has had as many starts where he has given up multiple home runs as he has where he has given up none (Tanner Bibee has been homer-prone as well, but has 10 no homer starts vs 6 multi-homer starts, for reference). Nearly half of Cecconi’s starts have also contained 3 or fewer strikeouts (21% of Bibee’s had 3 or fewer). Cecconi also has the worst quality of contact stats on the staff. I’m afraid some of the success he has had could be the product of smoke and mirrors.

Having referenced Bibee, I want to add the additional context that he is certainly having a down year himself. In his 3rd MLB season, a 4.54 ERA and 1.45 HR/9 are both worsts. He has allowed 4-homer and 3-homer games within this season as, showing serious susceptibility to the long-ball. It also seems like he isn’t getting hitters to chase this year in a way he has in the past, leading to more deep counts and labor on his part. I will say in his defense that his quality of contact stats suggest he is the 12th most unlucky pitcher in baseball this year. So some of his struggles are likely an aberration and the pitcher he has been the last two season is more in line with who he really is. Still, the results are what they are.

Lastly in terms of the rotation, I am high on what Joey Cantillo can be. Having started the season in the bullpen, I was surprised how inconsistent he was there. I thought his stuff would play really well in short spurts, but I think he has actually looked better as a starter overall. As a rookie, I’m encouraged by a 3.93 ERA overall and his FIP of 3.56 as a starter is a great indication that he can be successful in the rotation. If he can get his command right (one in every 8 hitters is a walk- not good) the Guardians could really be onto something.

So I don’t omit them, Gavin Williams remains a pitcher with great potential. We saw what he could do with his recent near no-hitter, but he needs to attack hitters more, avoiding walks and deep counts. Logan Allen has been significantly better than last season and is showing the potential to be a quality back end starter moving forward. Both of their seasons have been decent. I do have some concerns that Williams has been slightly lucky. The Guardians could also get back John Means before the season ends and I am curious what the former Orioles ace could be coming off of Tommy John surgery. The fact that they have the ability to keep him on the roster in 2026 could be a large positive.

Admittedly, the overall outlook for the starting rotation above has potential, but isn’t currently all that rosy. The overall results suggest this too. The Guardians starters this year have been middle-of-the-road in ERA (18th), but FIP and expected FIP suggest they have been slightly worse (both are 24th). Local media has been generally positive about the starting rotation lately. The truth is they are better than last year’s rotation that was lucky to pitch into the 5th inning at times, but overall they haven’t been especially impressive. They’ve looked more impressive just because of how wobbly they were last season. That leaves us with the undeniable strength of the team.

The Pitching: Bullpen

While last season’s bullpen was otherworldly- leading baseball in most statistical categories- this year’s has been great, but not to the same extent. The Guardians are 4th in bullpen ERA and 3rd in bullpen FIP, which shows they are still among the cream of the crop even if they haven’t reached last year’s level,

While most of last year’s usual suspects returned this year and performed well, Tim Herrin is the one outlier. As the lefty in last year’s Big Four, Herrin has really struggled with command this season, walking a startling 1 in 6 batters he faces and spending a good portion of the summer in the minors.

However, the emergence of fellow lefty Erik Sabrowski has softened the blow. Sabrowski came up big down the stretch last season and seemed poised to continue to provide depth to this year’s bullpen before elbow inflammation made him miss most of the first half of the season. He has been exemplary since being called up and has really provided a shot in the arm for a bullpen that lost significant depth with Herrin’s struggles and Emmanuel Clase’s suspension. Sabrowski has posted a paltry 1.06 ERA this season and is striking out hitters at a higher clip than Cade Smith.

Speaking of Smith, he continues to reign as one of the dominant arms in all of baseball. Smith has allowed just 2 home runs in 55 innings pitched. Nearly one in every three hitters he faces is a hitter that he punches out. Hitters are hitting just .167 on his fastball, one of the best in the game, and he is on pace to be worst more than 2 WAR as a reliever.

One other reliever I specifically wanted to call out is Matt Festa. Festa has been a bit of a whipping boy on the internet this season, and admittedly, his results on the mound haven’t been great. He has posted a 4.99 ERA and he struggles to put hitters away at times as he isn’t much of a strikeout pitcher. Still, he’s posted a FIP of just 3.27, which is a better number than from the well-trusted setup man Hunter Gaddis. There is information here to suggest that Festa has gotten unlucky. Couple that with a willingness to pitch in a number of situations and even sometimes on three days straight, and in some way, I think Festa is a bit of an unsung hero of this bullpen.

And the flexibility that Festa has shown isn’t really just limited to him. I love how manager Steven Vogt has handled the bullpen after Clase’s disappearance. There has been a “next man up” mentality across the board and while Vogt has tried to stick to some defined roles, guys have been stretched to pitch in odd situations at times when things don’t go according to plan. The Guards pen has responded by collectively pitching to a 2.93 ERA since the suspension. Somehow, they have gotten stronger despite the adversity and while losing one of their best arms.

So, What Does This All Mean?

All of this being said, let’s go back to the beginning. The Guardians find themselves above .500 more than 120 games into the season and within 3.5 games of a Wildcard spot. October baseball isn’t out of the question and once a team gets into the tournament, anything can happen. But how likely is it?

Honestly, I don’t think very. While the Guardians’ record suggests that their positioning is decent; it also suggests something else that is clear: this Guardians team is a step backward from where they were last year. In some cases, like in the case of Lane Thomas, the Nolan Jones trade or the unfortunate news surrounding Emmanuel Clase, Luis Ortiz and the Gold Glove second baseman that was traded in order to get Ortiz, this season is an entirely lost season.

That’s not to say this Guardians team is terrible. I don’t believe that by any means. However, when you consider how the offense has suffered this season, the starting rotation has marginally improved and the bullpen is still a strength but not the superpower it was last season, it is easy to see where the slip ups have come from. This team didn’t improve in meaningful ways to get them to the next level.

Further, when considering their negative run differential and the fact they are just 27-37 against teams above .500, I have to say this isn’t a bad team, but it is not a particularly good one.

What will the final stretch of the season bring? There is still some small chance the Guards could sneak into the post-season. I think that would be a great goal for them, but I don’t expect a deep run. At the same time, this team very well could sputter down the stretch and end the season below .500.

I think the most likely answer is somewhere in the middle. This is a .500 ball-club or slightly above that. Cleveland might make September interesting, but as much as I want to see more than that from them, I don’t see the chance for it before 2026.























































































Dear Journal: Pickup Sports Talk CLE is Back

“Hey Mr. [pickupsportstalkcle]! Tell me where have you been? Around the world and back again…”

I last posted on this little corner of the internet that I own five years ago. I have to be honest, I was shocked when I went to the homepage a moment ago and saw the dateline on my last post was August 7th 2020. I just so happen to be sitting here beginning to type this new return post on August 7th 2025, literally 5 years to the day later. I didn’t plan it this way.

In a way though, what lays below is kinda neat. I encourage you to scroll down and see what I was writing about five years ago. It is like a time capsule. Baseball hadn’t quite returned from the COVID delay yet. I started what I had planned to be a recurring segment about much maligned Cleveland relief pitchers of the past (the Gasoline Gang!), never to return to the subject. There’s an NBA playoff plan in there for the upcoming bubble. All these things feel so quaint now. It is so easy to lose track of how time changes the world when you’re living in it every day. I don’t mean to make this deeper than it needs to be because all I’m really doing is prattling along on me keyboard about sports, but the world has significantly changed since the last time I hit the submit button on this site.

So, what happened? Why, after making pretty consistent contributions to this page back in 2020, did I suddenly just drop off a cliff? Did the return of sports in the weeks that followed my last post distract me? Did the games returning satiate my boredom and leave me no reason to type away about USA Basketball teams or Cleveland baseball alternative histories?

If you’re reading this now, there’s a decent chance you know better than that. The fact of the matter is that while I did stop writing here, for the vast majority of the last five years, I didn’t stop writing altogether. Many of you followed me on that journey and I appreciate it. I know my following isn’t large. Mostly friends and family, but all the same, thanks for clicking on this.

I hope I won’t bore you to death, but I just feel like I need to write out how I’ve made this giant circle back to this space. Next time I get back on here, we can get back to the more traditional conversation. I promise it won’t be another five years. Before we can get to the part when I stopped writing here though, I think I just want to start at the beginning.

I remember sitting in my apartment with my now-wife several years ago. I don’t remember exactly when, but it was probably around 2017 or 2018. We were just lounging. I had been watching the Indians’ game that had just ended and we hadn’t decided what we were going to do next. The post-game show was on and Al Pawloski and Jensen Lewis were recapping the happenings of the day. Without prompting, my wife expressed to me something along the lines of “How do you get a job doing what they (Al and Jensen) do? You could probably do that.”

I’d like to think in some small way she was right. Perhaps I am still kidding myself all this time later, but while I do have a Sport Management degree, I never went to broadcast school like Mr. Pawloski and I never played in the bigs or had biceps the size of Jensen Lewis’s. It was a nice thing for her to say, because I am a baseball/sports fanatic and think I do know what I’m talking about to an extent, but I shrugged it off at the time. If anyone is going to believe in you like that, it should be your future wife, but that doesn’t make it a reality.

I also remember sitting in my old work office downtown. This was definitely in 2019. A good friend and co-worker of mine was establishing himself as an IT professional at the time, and like many things in his life, he had jumped into it head first. That isn’t a slight, by the way, he’s an accomplished IT manager now, but all the same, when this guy gets the itch to start a new task or hobby, he tends to do it to the fullest extent.

Anyway, this friend of mine came into my office that day. I don’t remember the entire context of the conversation, but what I do remember was that he was very excited because he was just started a YouTube channel dedicated to IT tutorials. Like I said, he was full-go on IT. He had the itch and was going to use his new found skills not just for work, but to start a personal project and make some media on the side.

From here, I forget all the details, but I imagine that after telling me about his channel our conversation invariably turned to sports and I likely was going on some tangent about one of Cleveland’s teams. What I do remember though was that my friend said something like, “You should make your own sports blog,”

To be fair, I would have considered this individual my friend back then when he said this, but we weren’t as close as we could get in the coming years as we both matured professionally and worked our way up at the company at which we were working. It meant something to me when my wife said I should be making some sort of sports media, but it meant even more for him to say, because he has less reason to talk me up.

I did have both of their compliments reverberating in my head though. I had a good job at the time (still do, but more on that later). I wasn’t necessarily looking to risk it all and leave it all behind to get myself on ESPN or something, but I think a sense of maturity and confidence that I didn’t have when I was younger (and may have told me to check out broadcasting when I was in school, perhaps) told me that it wouldn’t hurt to look into what it costs to own your own web domain.

It turned out that at the time buying a WordPress domain cost about $60 a year. That’s about the same as a game for my Playstation 4 would have cost. Knowing that and after a little more consideration, I decided to give it a whirl. Why not? What do I have to lose?

And for the next ten months or so, I had a blast creating on here, but as I was doing it, I also felt the need to be networking. Reddit is my social media of choice. Please don’t judge. I like that fact you subscribe to topics as opposed to people and it is essentially a forum.

Reddit would also be a great place to post my articles if it wasn’t for the fact that self-promotion is so frowned upon there, but I did find a sports-blog sub that allowed people to post their own work. And that subreddit is where I met a gentleman by the name of Vince Quinn. Vince was working in sports talk radio in Philadelphia at the time and was starting his own blog and podcast website. He jumped on the subreddit asking questions that I didn’t have the answers for (SEO was a topic, I remember) but he and I hit it off in DMs about our specific projects and he told me he was hiring a group of writers for his site. He saw some of my work and asked if I was interested.

And THAT is why my work tapered off here at PUSTCLE. Well… partially. I started working with Vince in the spring of 2020, which was also around the time that my day-job career started taking off. I had been asked if I wanted to step into a management role right around the time that Vince asked if I was interested in writing for his site.

For about four or five months I managed to juggle it all, writing MLB-based posts for Vince (Triple Play and then Last Out Media) while still putting everything else on this page until this fell by the wayside in the summer. I genuinely enjoyed my time writing for him. I was a bit of an outsider in that most of his writing team was based out of Philly, but those were a really great group of people that made me feel welcome and supported my work (shout out to Francisco Rojas, who invited me on his YouTube channel and is still going there today).

Unfortunately though, Vince and the small group who were in on the project with him decided their future was in the podcasting side of things more than the blogging or writing side. They closed the blog down a little more than a year after I joined. I kept contact with some of that old writing group for a while. They started their own Substack and I think I posted a thing or two on it, but I was feeling the itch to be able to write about my local teams and wanted to find a new platform.

And about that time I got Zach Shafron’s attention. Zach operates Cleveland Sports Talk, a fan site for Cleveland sports. He was in need of Guardians writers at the time and I was happy to make that my specialty. CST ended up being the site where I would have the longest tenure. I believe I was there for more than three and a half years and I know I contributed more than 100 posts about the Indians/Guardians during my time there. Some of my favorite work, like my article about how the Indians turned a $3000 signing bonus given to Bartolo Colon into several star players over time is on that site. He was great to work with, helped come up with ideas and would occasionally challenge me to write on topics that I otherwise would not have written about.

Over time though, I felt a little bit pigeon-holed writing about just the Guardians. I am sure that if I had talked to Zach about branching out he would have let me. More importantly, Zach required three posts a month from his writers. That is in no way a ridiculous or unreasonable request, but that management job that I was working in the day was growing and growing.

Setting aside writing, that day job had grown to be too much. I want to be careful with how I say this. It wasn’t that there was any individual piece of the job that I felt like I couldn’t do. It was that there were so many individual pieces to the job.

I’m not here for anyone to feel bad for me. Many people out there work longer hours than I did. Many of them have to in order to survive. But, I was working consistent 50-55 hours weeks- five full work days plus a couple hours of work on Sundays. This wasn’t once in a while. This was every week, week after week. I feel like I’m generally an optimistic and pleasant person to be around, but I know my moods grew more frustrated and irritable. I was stressed and quicker to be negative. I wasn’t being me.

It didn’t seem like the expectations of my employer were going to change any time soon. I remember driving home after one long day at work, sitting in the car in silence and asking myself why I was doing this to myself. The only word that popped into my head was: “money”.

Again, I understand that for some, that would be more than enough reason. I am talking from a place of privilege. But, I decided that if my employer wasn’t going to change their expectations, it was time to find a new employer. I needed to choose myself and while I didn’t want to go broke, I would be willing to concede some earnings for the right work-life balance.

And I was serious about my decision to the point that I knew that I was going to have to set aside writing for a while. That was a big deal for me. Over those four years I had been telling myself that even if I was frustrated with work, I wasn’t going to let it not allow me take the time to do something I enjoy like writing. But at that point, I knew I needed to focus on finding a new job so that hopefully I could return to writing without feeling the stress to fit it in. I just wanted to be in a better overall state of mind.

So, I reached out to Zach and let him know I had to step away. Given the fact I did it during the Guardians’ season, I am thankful for how smoothly he took it (I know it was a free fan site, but still). My goal was to go full bore into a job search. And that’s what I did, except I did get distracted.

This spring I was browsing around Reddit again and stumbled on a post in the Guardians’ subreddit. This post came from a Twins fan (a brave soul) who had an idea for a podcast he wanted to put together. The idea was to take a fan from each of the five American League Central teams and do a weekly recap show about the division.

I had literally just committed myself to my job search, but the idea of podcasting had been on my mind for a while. At the same time, I knew that I did not have the knowledge or skills in order to administer or carry on air my own podcast. An ensemble cast type of show was exactly the type of thing I would be interested in. I couldn’t risk that another opportunity would come up in the future, so I reached out to that Twins fan.

He goes by the name of Eric and now he, myself, Lee from Detroit and Sam from Kansas City get online and talk about our teams once a week. I am fortunate in that the podcast isn’t a one person show in the way my writing is. I do all my own editing in my written work and I am finicky about it so it takes some time. The fact that I just need to do a bit of research the day before and then show up for the show for two hours was a huge boon that allowed me to keep creating while looking for a job.

Which brings me to now. Exactly one month ago, I started a job with a new company. I’m not just a little stitous; I’m entirely superstitious and don’t want to say too much positive about the new place because of that. But I will say that I am putting in an honest full work day that I can be proud of while not feeling the grind and stress I felt at my old employer. Things are looking up.

And this week, I got another itch. I got the itch to start writing again. So, I’ve been sitting here putting this together for the last couple of hours. I really enjoyed my time writing on CST, but I’ve decided I want the freedom to post as frequently or infrequently as I want. I am going to keep it to sports, but I also want to be able to write about whatever sport that I want. The Guardians and Cavs and their respective leagues will remain my bread and butter. I will continue my informal “no Browns/NFL” policy, but I’ve expanded my sports palate a little in recent years. The WNBA and NASCAR are probably as far on opposite sides of the cultural spectrum as possible, but I like them both. You might seem a little something about them at some point. My Columbus Blue Jackets’ fandom has waxed and waned in the last half decade based upon how accessible their games are for me on television. They very well may make an appearance as well here.

I’m sure Zach would probably be flexible with me and willing to work with me, but more important than post schedules and content, I just am at a point where I want to be entirely in control of what I put out and when. It is about comfort and it is about being accountable to myself and myself only in this little hobby I’ve developed over the last five years.

That’s why I’ve written this today. I guess this is a bit of a journal or diary entry more than anything else. If you’ve made it this far, thank you for reading, both in this post and over the last five years.

When I first started doing this, I cared more about if I was getting views or not. I don’t want to do that now. That sentiment was coming from a place of insecurity about spending my time on writing in the first place. Don’t get me wrong, it is nice to know that people are looking at my posts, but I’m not going to consider my writing more or less worthy based on view counts. I wrote this today for me. There is a sense of perspective in my family, friends, work and hobby life all mixed in to what I just recapped. It felt good to put together. It was fun. That’s why I want to do this again. Fun.

So, I am going to dust off my little corner of the internet here and you’re welcome to join me. Whether there’s zero, one or one thousand of you- let’s have some fun.