Being the only team with 10 wins in December, the San Antonio Spurs are the NBA’s hottest team right now (and I don’t just say that because they have my Cavs up next in a matter of hours). More than that though, I also think San Antonio is the league’s best challenger to the current Finals favorites in Oklahoma City.
To be fair and adding to my point, San Antonio has already challenged the Thunder and succeeded in doing so. Three of those ten December wins for the Spurs have been at the hands of OKC. Thunder star point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander may have said it best recently, admitting that you don’t lose to a team three times in a row in a short time span without them being better than you. The people that invented the NBA playoffs would argue it is actually four times that seals the deal, but his point stands. Despite Oklahoma City being an awe-inspiring 27-2 against every other team, they have lost all three of their match ups against San Antonio, and now SA is directly behind them in second place in the Western Conference standings.
Of course, there is one 7 foot 4, 235 pound French shadow that towers over this entire discussion. I came to this realization about the Spurs (and so did many others) in part from watching their efforts during the high-octane games of the NBA Cup. The one thing that stuck out to me most though, is that despite not being fully recovered from injury, despite a thin frame for his size, despite being just 22 years of age and in just his third NBA season, Victor Wembanyama is the most game-changing player in the league, and might be on his way to being the Association’s best player.
Wembanyama is 4th in the NBA’s Player Impact Estimate stat, trailing only Nikola Jokic (multi-MVP winner), Giannis Antetokounmpo (multi-MVP winner) and Gilgeous-Alexander (last year’s MVP). Wemby outpaces where SGA was in his age-22 season by far. At age 22, Shai had a season that saw him step up a level, getting over the 20 PPG plateau and increasing his assists, but he was 29th in PIE. Jokic and Anteotkounmpo might be the better comparisons for Wemby, having both come over from international play as opposed to playing in the NCAA. Still, Jokic and Antetokounmpo finished their own age-22 seasons 9th and 8th in PIE, respectively. The Alien outpaces them at this juncture of his career, at least through just under half of the season.
Statistically, Wembanyama has been great all-around. Due to his size and mobility, Wembanyama’s defensive proficiency in a lot of ways is turn-key. He looms massive in the paint. He has not just led the league in Blocks per game in his first two seasons, but has led them with an average margin of 1.3 Blocks per Game between him and second place. He is the only player in the league to average more than 3 Blocks per Game in the last two seasons. Yet, due to his frame and mobility, he can also defend the perimeter. He isn’t a defensive liability that becomes barbecue chicken when switched onto in the pick and roll, and his massive length and wingspan likely help keep him in plays where a guard does beat him with a quick first step. Certainly, there is some nuance to the game that Wemby has and will continue to pick up at the highest level, but he entered the league as one of its best defensive players a little over two years ago and I think there’s little doubt he could be the Defensive Player of the Year in any year from the next several seasons.
The interesting thing about how Wembanyama has improved himself offensively this year though is his shot diet. Last year, Wemby’s average shot was 17 feet from the rim. This year, it is less than 12 feet from the rim. He has done this (or perhaps the Spurs coaching staff has helped scheme this) by increasing his shots at the rim by six percentage points. Wembanayama’s shots in what I will refer to as the “short mid-range” (10-16 feet) have also gone up by about 5 percentage points. In general, Wemby’s is just shooting more 2-point shots this year. Last year, just over half of his shots were twos. This year, it is about three out of every four. Based on being about a 58% shooter overall from 2-point range and a 35% 3-point shot-maker, twos are actually a more efficient shot for Wembanyama despite being worth one less point, so this tweak has been to his benefit. His shot percentages for twos and threes have held steady from last year but his overall FG% has gone up, because he’s taking more of the shots that he makes more often, and because he is legitimately more efficient with his twos, his True Shooting% has gone up.
Being aggressive and getting closer to the rim has also helped him draw more fouls. Wemby averaged just over 4 free throws per game last season. This year, he is averaging 6.5. At a quality FT% of 84% over the last two seasons, that’s easy money. He is scoring an additional 2 Points per Game off of free throws alone this year.
What strikes me most about Wembanyama though isn’t statistical. In watching him and the Spurs play lately, I am drawn in by how much attention he draws from his opponents at both ends of the floor. Defensively, not only does he lead the league in blocks, but he alters shots at the rim at an incredibly high rate. Driving players have to change the angle of their layups to get around his height, leading to decreased make percentages. That goes without mentioning any decreased interest teams have at attacking the rim when he is on the floor in the first place.
I admittedly don’t have numbers for this, but in the games I have seen, it feels like Wembanyama gets double-teamed a lot on the offensive end. He has to be up there with the most doubled players in the league. Alternatively, teams will find other creative ways to defend him. For much of one of their recent games, the Thunder put a significantly smaller guard in Alex Caruso on Wembanyama, hoping to use Caruso’s active hands to generate steals. This failed to slow Wemby.
In the three games the San Antonio played against Oklahoma City, Wembanyama averaged a +/- of +15.7. I want to remind you that OKC has looked far and away like the best team in the league this season. Their own point differential for the season is +14.2. No one else is in double-digits. Wembanyama turned that success upside down.
And while I have glowed over Wemby for most of this post, and deservedly so, the Spurs aren’t just a one-man show. You don’t get to be the second best team in the West with just one player, especially when that player has missed about 30% of your games.
The Spurs collectively do three things really well. They’ve shot the ball really well this season. They keep opposing teams off of the free throw line. They end possessions with their defensive rebounding. All this has amounted to San Antonio being the only team in the NBA in the top 5 in both Offensive and Defense Rating.
Let’s start with the non-Wemby part of the offense.
When forward Harrison Barnes joined the Spurs last season, he ended up having the best three-point shooting campaign of his career (43%). This season, he has stayed at the 40% mark for made threes, something he only did once in his twelve years in the league before joining San Antonio. Barnes has kept this strong three-point rate despite the fact he is shooting threes more frequently than he has in any of the last six seasons. It seems the Spurs’ coaching staff have unlocked something with Barnes, and he could be an important veteran marksman with playoff experience.
Small forward Keldon Johnson was the focal point of San Antonio’s offense in the unfortunate season that saw them play so poorly that they would end up having the first pick in the 2023 Draft (where they would take Wembanyama). That heightened role for Johnson was clearly a mis-cast. He would score a career high 22 PPG, but shot the worst efficiency of his career while far and away leading the Spurs in Usage Rate. The win-loss results spoke for themselves. The Spurs were no better in the games Johnson played than the games that he missed that year, and they were a bad team at all times.
Johnson is excelling as a role player this season though. While he is shooting less than any season since his rookie year, the shots he is taking are going in at an ultra high rate. He too has changed his shot diet, completely eliminating mid-range shots from his game and getting more attempts at the rim than at any other time in his career. This has proven highly successful as he is one of just 22 players in the league this season was a True Shooting % above 67%, which is far and away a career best.
From a volume perspective, there were some questions about if point guard De’Aaron Fox would be the right running-mate for Wembanyama, but to this point, results have been positive. Fox has never been considered an especially good shooter in his career, but at 28 years old he is shooting threes better than any other season. In fact, he is mere decimal points away from being rounded up in the 40% club with Barnes and Johnson. This is important, because schematically the Spurs have asked Fox to be less of the slasher that he was in Sacramento and more of an outside shooter. Nearly 40% of the shots he has taken are threes, which is the highest rate of his career. This is likely a reaction to the inside attention that teams have paid to Wembanyama, which has clogged the paint. Holistically, the switch to San Antonio seems to have benefited Fox. He is playing some of his strongest ball of his career. To this point in the season, his Win Shares per 48 is the best of his career.
As for defense, as mentioned, the Spurs do two things really well. They don’t foul and they clean the defensive glass. This is interesting because this season has largely seen a change in defensive philosophy inspired by what might be San Antonio’s biggest new rival.
I am simplifying, but a lot of what has made OKC successful in the last couple of seasons has been their tendency to relentlessly pressure the opposing team’s ball-handler and generate turnovers (which leads to empty possessions for their opponents and fast-breaks for them). Indiana used a similar formula to push themselves to the Finals last season. That ball-pressure can generate turnovers and wear opposing teams out from a conditioning standpoint, but it also generates more fouls.
This year, the secret is out. We can tell this is the case because the median NBA team is fouling an additional 2 times per game this season compared to last. Like most leagues, the NBA is a copycat league. The hot new thing is to pressure the basketball and if you pick up a couple of fouls in the process, so be it.
San Antonio, by their nature, isn’t a heavy fouling team. They have seen their number of fouls increase this year, like most of the league, but they are still just 5th overall in Personal Fouls called against them. The Spurs are 5th in Defensive Rating despite having just 2 players with over 2.5 Fouls per Game. Detroit, who is 2nd in Defensive Rating has five such players. This low foul rate means San Antonio allows the 4th fewest Free Throws in the league.
And yes, that lack of pressure does mean that the Spurs do not generate a lot of turnovers. They are 22nd in generating them. That doesn’t matter as much though when Wemby is the most prolific defensive rebounder in the sport. He currently leads the NBA in Defensive Rebounding %. At 11.3 Defensive Rebounds per 36 minutes, no one pulls them down at a greater rate, with almost a full rebound between him and Miami’s Kel’el Ware in second place.
Even in the games Wembanyama has missed though, the Spurs have had this commitment to ending their defensive possessions with rebounds. San Antonio holds opponents to 10.2 Offense Rebounds per Game. That’s tied for the best average in the league with the Knicks. In the 12 games Wemby has not played in, opponents average just 9.8 Offensive Rebounds. Young forward Julian Champagnie has joined Johnson as two players who seem to have especially picked up the slack in games where Wembanyama has sat. They both have multiple games over double-digit rebounds in Wemby’s absence.
This all goes without mentioning the young group of guards the Spurs have in Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell and rookie/2nd overall pick Dylan Harper. Vassell, the most senior of the three, has logged the most minutes on the team, put up the most shots and is contributing 15.3 Points per Game. Castle is in his second season and has taken a leap, putting up about 19 points and 7 assists, taking a lot of the ball-handling pressure off of Fox and looking like a legitimate third option on the floor. The Spurs also have the luxury of bringing the 2nd overall pick in the draft off of the bench and allowing him to provide an offensive spark that way. Paired with Johnson, the combination of both of them average 25 Bench Points per game. San Antonio finds itself in a position where it could hoard all this young guard talent and have a deep bench in the present and opportunity to re-load in the future, or they can trade from their surplus or if they need to cover for injuries on their roster in the future.
And that brings us to that future. I don’t know if this particular iteration of San Antonio is title-bound, but this is surely the best opportunity that this proud NBA franchise has had in nearly a decade. There is a heavy field to play against, and in particular, I think the Thunder make for an interesting foil for the Spurs, even if they have beaten them three times this regular season. Their differences on the defensive end alone allow for some intrigue, let alone having games with two of the five best players in the sport on the floor every time.
While the Thunder may stand in the Spurs’ way, so possibly could their own health. I have mentioned in passing how Wembanyama has missed time this year- twelve games to be exact. Fox has missed nine. So has Castle. I’m getting way ahead of myself, but this San Antonio group could be a game-changing dynasty. Spurs-Thunder could be the new age Cavaliers-Warriors (I’m sure Adam Silver would love that considering the market sizes!). But a lot of that hinges on the joints, cartilage and ligaments of a 7 foot 4 Frenchman capable of moving nothing like the basketball world has seen before. Wemby and the Spurs could be Steph and the Warriors. They could also be Dwight Howard and the Magic, burning fast and bright before meeting their full destiny. They could also be Derrick Rose and the Bulls, a sure contender halted in their tracks by devastating injury.
We’ve been here before on this type of precipice. We’ve been here before with the Spurs being poised to be one of the best teams of the next ten years. And yet, looking at the type of player that Wembanyama is, we’ve also never ever been here before.
Pick-Up Sports Talk: Cleveland 