I think that most Cavaliers fans would agree that at the 25-game mark, they would have expected more from a team that seemed poised to threaten to make the NBA Finals coming into this season. But instead, here we are.
The Cavs currently stand at 14-11 and in 8th place in an Eastern Conference where they were expected to be one of the two best teams in the field, at worst. Expectations were high coming off of a 2024-2025 campaign that may have ended in an underwhelming fashion, but that saw them arguably sport one of the best offenses in league history.
Kenny Atkinson’s squad hasn’t been able to recreate the magic that made Cleveland not only successful last season, but one of the most fun teams to watch in recent memory. The Cavs led the NBA in scoring last season at a staggering 121.9 Points per Game. The were holistically a great offense, leading the NBA in Offensive Rating as well as in efficiency via True Shooting%. Simply put, the Cavs’ offense for the 2024-2025 season wasn’t just a runaway train. It was a marvel of engineering. It was a delight to watch due to the democratic way in which the team passed and played a beautiful brand of basketball, but also for its lack of wasted motion- its incredible efficiency.
So far this season Cleveland is a good, but pedestrian by comparison 9th in Points per Game. Their Offensive Rating places them in a very similar 10th, but more shockingly, their efficiency has taken a severe downturn. The Cavs currently rank 20th in True Shooting% as they have seen both their regular field goal percentage decrease as well as their rates from behind the three-point line.
Many people thought that Cleveland would take a positive step upon the return of All-Star point guard Darius Garland after the beginning of Garland’s season was delayed in recovery from an injury he incurred in last season’s playoffs. Garland’s return could have been a second opportunity for the Cavs’ season to take off. Instead, not only did Garland find himself back out of the lineup due to injury after just a few games (he has since returned again, although the coaching staff is being careful with his use), but the Cavaliers are just 4-5 in games that he has played.
The 2-time All-Star and former 5th overall pick hasn’t been the jump start that Cleveland hoped he would be. The sample is small at only 9 games, but at this point, he is averaging his lowest Points per Game since his rookie season (14.0) while actually shooting less efficiently than he did in his rookie year (a rough 48.6% TS%).
One can look at Garland’s absence as well as his ineffectiveness at the offensive end so far this season and try to point a finger at these being the Cavaliers’ biggest issues (at least offensively). Additionally, the Cavs have been bereft of the opportunity to have their entire roster at any point this season due to injuries. Sharp-shooting guard Sam Merrill was off to a hot start but has only played in 12 games due to injury. Key off-season acquisition Lonzo Ball has purposely been slow-played in order to retain his health. Max Strus hasn’t seen the floor yet this season. No Cavalier has played in every single game, including star guard Donovan Mitchell.
Garland certainly hasn’t been his best upon his return, and all these injuries have hurt, but there is one more absence that I think has had a particularly surprising impact on the Cavs’ offense. Believe it or not, I think that Cleveland’s offense misses injured center Jarrett Allen’s presence significantly.
I know this seems counter-intuitive. I acknowledge that Allen is correctly perceived as a defense-first center without much of a bag on the offensive end. I know he isn’t much of a shooter and definitely doesn’t create for himself the way that Mitchell or Garland do. But let me explain.
Allen’s offensive role with the ball in his hands is quite limited, but he does possess strong qualities. He is good around the rim, a great roll-man/lob threat on the pick & roll and a good interior passer.
As mentioned, the Cavaliers had an exceptional ’24-’25 season that saw them as one of the best offenses in the history of the sport. Allen played all 82 games in what amounted to a 64-18 campaign. While Allen isn’t a shooter from distance, he was phenomenal on the shots around the rim and in the paint that he did take. He quite literally led the NBA in Field Goal% at 70.6%, which makes for an obvious way that he contributed to one of the most effective and efficient offenses in the recent history of the sport.
While Allen’s ’24-’25 season was a high water mark for his efficiency, he generally can be depended upon to score around the rim at an efficient level. His Field Goal% for his career is 3rd best among all active players at over 63%. Interestingly, Allen has still been good enough to lead the Cavaliers in Field Goal% this season, but is currently having the worst shooting season of his career at 57.3%. At just 27 years old, I would not expect regression to be a factor here, but the time Allen has missed this season is largely due to injuries to his hands. If his hands have been ailing him, it only makes sense that the touch that he puts on the ball would be hampered.
But even with injury and at a reduced level of effectiveness, I feel like Allen’s presence has been a pivot point for the Cavs’ success this season. Cleveland has still been a better offensive team when Allen is on the floor.
As mentioned, his Field Goal% still leads the team, even if injuries have brought him down a couple of notches. Allen has also pulled down 2.4 Offensive Rebounds per Game, narrowly missing the team lead in this stat as big man Evan Mobley has pulled down 2.5. However, Allen’s offensive rebounding rate is even more prolific as he leads the Cavs in Offensive Rebound%. (minimum 13 games played and 24 minutes per game… sorry Nae’quan Tomlin). Both figures have Allen in the top 25 in the NBA, so while he hasn’t been in the very top tier, he has been a legitimate contributor. When combined with the efforts of Mobley (and perhaps Tomlin), Cleveland can mount a force on the offensive glass.
What I find most interesting though is that the Cavs play at a measurably faster Pace when Allen is on the floor. You wouldn’t think this would be the case. Allen isn’t unathletic or anything, but you wouldn’t think that the Cavs are at their fastest when their biggest man is on the floor. At a rate of 105.3, this beats out even Lonzo Ball and his penchant for pushing the ball on the break.
So in totality, Allen increases the number of possessions that Cleveland gets not only via second chance opportunities but also because something about his presence on the floor increases the rate at which the Cavs take shots. Couple that with his own ability to put the ball in the basket at a high success rate, and you can see why Allen has the 2nd Best Offensive Rating on the team (missing 1st by just 0.1) and the 2nd Best Net Rating on the team (behind Donovan Mitchell in both categories, who should get Most Valuable Player votes if he keeps his own season going).
But there still seems to be something else going on when Allen is on the floor beyond his own individual performance. Perhaps it is solely a function of his own efficiency, but the Cavaliers’ effective Field Goal% is .568 when Allen is on the floor. If that figure was Cleveland’s overall eFG%, it would be good for 6th place in the NBA. Without Allen on the floor, their eFG% is .528, which if it were their overall rate, would tie them with Brooklyn for 24th. Adding to this, the Cavs’ Offensive Rating with Allen on the floor is 122.7, which would have them as the 2nd best offense in the league. Without him on the floor, their Offensive Rating is 114.5, which would have them in 16th.
What I find most odd about this is that while Allen himself isn’t a three-point shooter, his presence on the floor seems to also affect Cleveland’s ability to shoot the ball from deep. I wasn’t able to find a specific “on-off” stat for this, but by my own math, the Cavaliers have shot 35.7% from three in games where Allen plays this season. In games that Allen has missed, they shoot just 32.3% from beyond the arc. Neither of those rates are especially good, but let’s just say that the Cavs go from being the 20th to dead last in three-point shooting in the comparison between those two rates. That’s right. If Jarrett Allen isn’t on the floor, the Cavs have shot threes at a percentage that would be worst in the league if compared to all other teams.
I can only speculate, but I feel like Allen puts pressure on the Cavaliers’ opponents to guard the paint in a way that teams don’t necessarily have to do when he isn’t playing. His ability to run to the rim, roll hard off of picks and the positions he places himself in on the floor cause defenses to have to cover not just east, west, and north at the three-point line, but also south towards the rim. This creates more shooting space and better shots for the shooters that are on the floor.
We could say that Mobley does this as well, but my perception is that Mobley tends to position himself in different spots more in the mid-range portion of the floor, therefore not creating the same spacing.
On the subject of Mobley, while the long-term narrative has been that Allen and Mobley are a tough sell to play together on the floor, especially offensively, because of their lack of effective outside shooting, they’ve actually been good together this season. When Allen and Mobley are on the floor together, the Cavs outscore their opponents by 10.3 points per 100 possessions. This outpaces the Cavaliers’ overall net rating, which is just over 3 points per 100. The only player Allen is better on the floor with this season is Jaylon Tyson (+10.7 points per 100 possessions).
Put it all together and it appears then that Cleveland’s offense while Allen is on the floor isn’t quite best in class, but is among still the best. When is he isn’t on the floor though, the Cavaliers’ offense appears to be very run-of-the-mill.
So like I said, I know it seems counter-intuitive, but Jarrett Allen’s ability to score around the rim makes him efficient in his own right. He creates more possessions for his team both via offensive rebounds and by the pace that the Cavs’ play at when he is on the floor. His teammates also shoot and play more effectively when he is on the floor this season. They shoot threes better and Allen in combination with Mobley has been a positive as opposed to a detriment.
Is it that wild to think that the Cavaliers are missing Jarrett Allen’s presence right now?
Pick-Up Sports Talk: Cleveland 