One of the first moves of the baseball off-season was when former Guardian and current Blue Jays pitcher Shane Bieber decided return to Toronto for 2026 by picking up the 1-year, $16 million option on his contract. The right-handed former ace’s decision was surprising for many.
Previous to his time in Toronto, Bieber had spent the vast majority of 2024 on the Injured List for Cleveland and spent essentially all of the first half of 2025 rehabbing from Tommy John Surgery before being traded at the July 31st deadline to Toronto.
However, Bieber would make his 2025 MLB debut on August 28th. He would make 7 regular season starts for Toronto and in those starts seemed to be pitching with a clean bill of health. To that point, he would throw just over 40 innings and pitch to a 3.57 ERA. That ERA would propel him to an ERA+ of 120 (100 is average, higher is better) and Bieber would average just over 5 2/3 innings per appearance in his return. So while he maybe didn’t pitch with the same effectiveness of his career ERA+ of 132, he was strong and healthy enough to pitch nearly 6 innings per appearance in a league where pitching that deep into ballgames is becoming less and less common.
Additionally, Bieber was part of the playoff equation for the Blue Jays in October. He made 5 appearances overall including 4 starts and while his numbers didn’t especially stand out, he held his own against the likes of the Yankees, Mariners and Dodgers. He pitched to a 3.86 ERA and more importantly, utilized his control, which is his best attribute as a pitcher. No one on the Blue Jays staff who threw 10 or more playoff innings had a better walk rate than Bieber.
All of this is to say, that while Bieber wasn’t in the ideal scenario that you would want to me in to be an upcoming free agent, he had done a lot in the last 3 months of MLB play to make a case for a significant contract.
Let’s remember that a little less than a year ago, the Detroit Tigers penned a contract with another former Guardian pitcher in Alex Cobb. In that deal, the Tigers signed Cobb to a 1-year, $15 million contract despite the fact that Cobb had dealt with myriad injuries in the last 18 months, had thrown just 16 innings in 2024 and was unclear on when he would be healthy for the 2025 season. Cobb never actually stood in the middle of the diamond for the Tigers in 2025. Apparently though, the nearly 60 innings of effective pitching that Bieber put together in 2025, his youth, the fact that he should be ready to pitch as at the start of 2026 and his Cy Young Award are worth only $1 million more than Cobb made just a year ago (not accounting for inflation either, of course!).
Then there’s Lucas Giolito. Once the ace of the Chicago White Sox, Giolito had a 3.47 ERA (129 ERA+) in 72 starts between 2019 and 2021. In contrast, Giolito would noticeably under-perform in 2022, pitching to a worse than league average 4.90 ERA in 30 starts. He would seem to bounce back in 2023, in 21 starts for Chicago he would throw to a 3.79 ERA, but the wheels would fall off after a deadline trade to the Angels. Giolito would bounce between Anaheim and Cleveland (remember that?!) to end the season and arguably put up his worst performances as a big leaguer. He would be worth -1.2 Wins Above Replacement in just 63 1/3 innings pitched in his time with the two teams. His ERA would be an ugly 6.96. He allowed 21 home runs in the 12 starts he would make after being traded and for the overall season would lead baseball in home runs allowed. His full season ERA would ultimately land just under 5.
In short, Giolito wasn’t very good and was trending the wrong direction. Even so, following that 2023 campaign he signed a 2-year, $38.5 million deal with the Boston Red Sox. You read that right. Despite all of his misfortune on the mound, Giolito got a 2-year deal making $19.25 million per year.
And yet, here is Bieber, opting in to a 1-year, $16 million deal. Admittedly, the news of Bieber agreeing to his option isn’t exactly fresh. It broke a little less than two weeks ago. But I have been sitting with it and stewing on it and I just can’t get over it. Something doesn’t compute. I am inclined to think one of two things is going on.
First, it is possible that the free agent market for this off-season is just going to be unpredictable because this is the last year of Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players’ Union’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. I can envision that Bieber has decided to take this one year option because he believes the free agent market is going to be diluted by teams having concern over the “uncertainty” of the future of baseball’s financial system. This would potentially be a pragmatic approach by Bieber. Come back to Toronto, show out even more in 2026 and try to make the most money possible once the rules of the road are once again cleared up after CBA negotiations.
I have also heard from shows/podcasts that I listen to that Bieber opting in must be a prologue to an extension that he is working out with Toronto. That too could have some merit, and really leads me into my other possibility, regardless of whether or not Bieber seeking an extension is entirely true.
Bieber, the other players in Toronto, the organization at large and the fans- I can only imagine have a strong feeling of unfinished business right now. Being a Cleveland baseball fan, I can empathize. They got literally as close as possible to winning a World Series as they could without actually doing it. Bieber, of course, played a major role in their undoing, allowing the go-ahead home run to Dodgers’ catcher Will Smith in extra innings of Game 7 of the World Series.
I’m not naive. I know money is one of the most prominent motivating factors for baseball players in where they decide to play when given the choice, but I don’t think it is the only factor. After getting that close, particularly after having worked so hard to rehab and get back into games and then have some legitimately good moments along with one really painful one, I wouldn’t blame Bieber in the slightest for wanting to run it back in Toronto.
And yes, maybe an extension is on the horizon. Bieber had only known Cleveland’s professional organization since being drafted by the team in the 4th Round of the Amateur Draft in 2016. When he went to Toronto though, he went to an organization led by Team President Mark Shapiro. Shapiro had been in the same role in Cleveland as recently as just months before Bieber’s drafting. Shapiro’s lineage continues in current Guardians’ Team President Chris Antonetti and General Manager Mike Chernoff.
Bieber was also one of six former Cleveland organization players to play for Toronto in the 2025 playoffs (Bieber, Andres Gimenez, Ernie Clement, Myles Straw, Anthony Santander, Nathan Lukes). That’s nearly a quarter of their roster. So while Bieber left Cleveland, his destination was about as close to the Guardians organization that you can possibly get. Even the playoff outcomes are on brand, though the financial resources are more robust with the Blue Jays.
The point here is that not only does the way in which the season ended leave Bieber invested in a return, perhaps even at a discount, but in a lot of ways the comfort-ability and culture that he feels may also have been a draw. I know all I am doing is speculating, but if I’m onto something, I would applaud Bieber for making a decision to stick with not just what he knows but what has proven to be successful on the field. I would applaud him for wanting a second chance to get to redeem his personal 1997 Charles Nagy moment.
I think the real question here is if other players will follow in kind. I don’t just mean Toronto’s free agent infielder Bo Bichette either. I wonder if such a prominent World Series outcome, an infectious offensive strategy that mixes the long-ball with fundamentals, and the opportunity to play with Vladimir Guerrero Jr will draw many free agent’s attention to the Blue Jays. For their part, Toronto has the backing of an entire country behind them. They have the financial resources to support free agent reinforcements. With how close they got, it may not even take all that much more.
After losing in the World Series in 2014, the Kansas City Royals went out and got DH Kendrys Morales and SP Edinson Volquez in free agency. They would go on to add utility-man Ben Zobrist and another SP in Johnny Cueto at the deadline. These were savvy moves, but weren’t super-ultra attention-getters. Between all four players there are six career All-Star appearances and one Silver Slugger Award. Those four players would help propel the Royals to the Commissioner’s Trophy in 2015.
Toronto doesn’t need to run out and convince Kyle Tucker to come north of the border. They don’t need to have feel anxiety because of what happened in the past when they tried to court Shohei Ohtani. They just need to find the right mix of veteran talent that’s still got something left in the tank and wants to get over the hump as badly as they do right now.
Can they do it? For what its worth, I think at least Shane Bieber thinks so.
Pick-Up Sports Talk: Cleveland 