I am ready for a month of anxiety.
That’s where baseball fans are headed. The calm, even at times malaise, of a six-month regular season is about to be replaced with the spastic short-series chaos of the MLB playoffs. Prepare yourselves. For while the 2025 regular season has had several incredibly memorable moments, those moments came from a built-upon extended tension. Cal Raleigh’s 60-homer season as a catcher is awe-inspiring in part due to the sustained excellence of six months of play. The Cleveland Guardians may have changed the course of their season in a way that was historic, but they did it over the course of a month.
The regular season is built on sustained successes day after day. Days turn to weeks. Weeks turn to months. Months turned into full bodies of work that get you into the post-season. For the post-season itself though, the key moments are ridiculously granular. Key at bats turn into key innings. Those innings change wins into losses and vice versa.
The Milwaukee Brewers led baseball with 97 wins this season. If they were to go on to to win the World Series, they will need 11 more wins to do so. I am trying to put this in perspective. If the Brewers proved themselves to be the best team in the sport this year with those 97 wins, then each of the 11 post-season wins they need to cement themselves as the best team in the game are worth about 9 regular season wins.
I hope that makes sense. The point I am trying to make is the incremental difference we see between how teams established themselves to get here and the sheer impact of individual games from hereon out. That’s what makes the MLB playoffs arguably the most exciting and drama-filled post-season of any major American sport. At this time or year, a switch flips and suddenly an at bat goes from a drop in the bucket to a much more prominent portion of the concoction.
For my part, having the Guardians make the post-season, let alone on an improbable run that saw them stifle a 15.5 game deficit over the course of the second half, makes the scenarios even more intense. However, I think anyone even moderately interested in the sport cannot deny the intensity and myth-making that this portion of the calendar can bring. When thinking of this phenomenon I am reminded of something Oscar Wilde once wrote and that Gene Wilder then made even more famous for less cultured audiences like myself in Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory.
“The suspense is terrible… I hope it lasts”.
And of course, I hope it lasts for my Guardians. That will provide me the most enjoyment. But even if it doesn’t, I will lick my wounds and get engaged all the same in pretty short order. What lies ahead is too compelling not to be drawn back.
With all that said, the other byproduct of all this intrigue is variance. Naturally, the sheer impact of each at bat, inning and game at this point in the calendar is directly tied to the smaller sample in which these games will be played. And that’s fine. I don’t say that to diminish the moment. Baseball has been playing “best of” series to determine its champion in some form for 125 years now. You stand toe-to-toe in October and beat the other best and you get the trophy. Thems the rules that we all agree to. That’s how you earn it.
But that often means, that while they are fun to do, playoff predictions are often not worth the paper they are written on. It is ironic, in a sport that has devoted itself so much to statistical analysis, often being on the cutting edge compared to other professional sports, we accumulate all this data over time to get to this moment.
Well, some of it might be useful now. Some of it might not. And we don’t know exactly which part will be useful. I wouldn’t say throw it all out, but good luck deciphering the right components to tell me what is going to happen 2 minutes, let alone 2 series from now.
Despite all that, it is fun to make predictions. So, in the spirit of that fun, and on the off-chance that I won the lottery in picking the right tidbits that will be put together to predict the October that lies ahead, here is one of the possible 2,048 ways that the MLB post-season could go. I will also provide a few a nuggets of information for each outcome as I see it. I want to directly mention that I am aiming to be objective in these predictions, despite my Guardians fandom. That said, we’re going to rip the band-aid right off and start with my favorite squad of 26.
AL Wildcard Series
Guardians over Tigers in 2.
At this point, I think Cleveland lives rent free in Detroit’s head. Having relinquished a 15.5 game division lead, Detroit stumbled into the playoffs losing 13 of their last 16 including 5 of 6 vs Cleveland in the last two weeks. They have likely back-to-back Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal ready to pitch in Game 1 and the Tigers were 21-10 in games Skubal has started over the course of 2025. However, Cleveland has beaten him twice in two weeks. I’m not sure the mystique is there.
Red Sox over Yankees in 3.
I know Boston is without Roman Anthony, and hasn’t looked like the same offense without him, but Boston has been able to put a lid on one of the best offenses in baseball over the course of their matchups this season. Many prominent pitchers for Boston- Garrett Crochet, Bryan Bello, Lucas Giolito, Aroldis Chapman and Garrett Whitlock- had success vs New York with ERAs at least below 3.50. It’ll be close. This will be (one of) the first Wildcard Series in the 6 team per league format to go to 3 games. Sounds like a perfect billing for Red-Sox Yankees.
NL Wildcard Series
Dodgers over Reds in 2.
Considering the fact that coming into the season, no one expected the Dodgers to need to play in the Wildcard series due to their bevy of talent, it would be absolutely wild if Cincinnati pulled the upset. Considering that the Dodgers outscored the Reds by double in their regular season matchups (30 runs to 15 runs), it would be even that more shocking. That goes without mentioning that the Reds snuck in with just 83 wins with the support of the Mets own late season collapse. Never say never, but I just don’t see it. The Dodgers are veteran enough to take care of business here.
Cubs over Padres in 3.
Speaking of in-season matchups, you can use them to predict absolutely nothing here. Not only did the Padres and Cubs split their season series at 3 games each, but they both scored/allowed 25 runs against each other. Much has been made of the Cubs slowing down and playing near .500 ball in the second half. The Cubs were the 3rd best offense in baseball by wRC+ in the first half and were only 15th in the second half. However, they’re back to 5th place since August 19th. The lull seems to be over. Meanwhile, San Diego is the 3rd worst home run hitting team in the sport in a time of year where one swing is much more important. I like the Cubs. I think they’re legit. More to come.
AL Division Series
Mariners over Guardians in 4.
Like I said, I am being objective. Seattle has the 3rd best pitching staff in the sport by xFIP. With the bye, they are going to get to rest and line up Bryan Woo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller in whatever order they want. Cleveland has hit the ball better during this late season stretch but they have the potential to be overmatched here. Seattle has also hit the 3rd most home runs of any team since the trade deadline. And its not just Cal Raleigh. Julio Rodriguez, Jorge Polanco and Josh Naylor have also slugged over .500 during that span. The Mariners are stacked.
Red Sox over Blue Jays in 5.
Jose Berrios had been moved to the bullpen and then got injured. 41-year old Max Scherzer and his 5.19 ERA are probably going to have to make starts for Toronto. Kevin Gausman and Shane Bieber can be great, but there isn’t much behind them. Down the stretch, Boston really struggled vs left-handed pitching, with an 85 wRC+ in September. However, all the good pitchers Toronto does have are righties, where Boston has been an above average offense, even without Anthony. If you’re looking for an unlikely hero, look out for rookie Nate Eaton who has hit .316 since August 15th.
NL Division Series
Dodgers over Phillies in 5.
Philadelphia’s wRC+ over the course of the season was 109. Against the Dodgers, it was just 72. They hit just .170 against the Dodgers’ pitching staff this season. Four of their starters- Alec Bohm, Brandon Marsh, JT Realmuto and Max Kepler- went a combined 2 for 57. For their part, the Dodgers have gotten strong starting pitching performances from Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell and Clayton Kershaw down the stretch. All three threw more than 40 innings with a FIP better than 3.10 since August 15th. Can Kershaw make a post-season statement in his final innings before retirement?
Cubs over Brewers in 5.
Milwaukee has had a great season, but they were 28th in home runs in September. No one hit more than 3 homers for them in the month. Even worse, none of Christian Yelich, Jackson Churio or Wilson Contreras were league average hitters down the stretch. As said earlier, the Cubs offense has rebounded. To be fair, pitchers Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga haven’t been good lately either for Chicago (5.31 and 6.51 ERAs in September, respectively), but the supporting cast around them has been solid. The bullpen has been led by Brad Keller, Andrew Kittredge and Aaron Civale. All had ERAs of about 2 or lower over the same time frame. I expect them all to help get the ball to Daniel Palencia at the back end, who can lock it down.
AL Championship Series
Mariners over Red Sox in 7.
I didn’t realize I thought as highly as I did of Boston until I did this exercise, but Seattle is just so stacked. Seattle pitching held Boston to a 59 wRC+ in their matchups this season. I mentioned their offense since the trade deadline and their starting rotation, but their bullpen also goes about five deep with lockdown guys. Gabe Speier, Matt Brash and closer Andres Munoz have been particularly good with season FIPs of 3.05 or better. Did I mention Cal Raleigh hit 60 homers while catching? It has nothing to do with the bullpen but needs repeating.
Cubs over Dodgers in 5.
The Cubs have not been a trendy team to pick to get this far. I acknowledge that. However, they outscored the Dodgers 42-31 in their matchups against eachother this year. Pete Crow-Armstrong hasn’t been the same caliber offensively in the second half, but he did hit 4 dingers against the Dodgers earlier this season. I think he can carry that confidence from earlier matchups. They also just recently got a healthy Kyle Tucker back, who not only has post-season experience but has been a long time torn in the sides of the Dodgers. I like the Cubs here to surprise some people.
World Series
Mariners over Cubs in 6.
This is easily Seattle’s best opportunity in more than twenty years to win their first World Series ever. They’ve never even made it to one. What better way to win it than to win it off the last team to break a century-long World Series drought? The Mariners biggest flaw is that they aren’t a very good base-running team. Beyond that, they hit incredibly well(3rd in wRC+ and homers), pitch incredibly well (3rd in xFIP) and field the ball at a decent level (8 Defensive Runs Saved). I think the Cubs are better than they are being perceived, but Seattle has the opportunity to just outgun everyone put in front of them. For the fun of it, let’s go with Julio Rodriguez as World Series MVP. Rodriguez had a 30-30 season while being one of the best center-fielders in baseball. His ability to affect the game in multiple ways makes him a prime MVP candidate.
And that’s my version of what is to come over the next month. If you made it this far, thanks for reading. Here’s to an October that provides a great finish to an already memorable season.
Pick-Up Sports Talk: Cleveland 