2025 has been a roller coaster, with the Guardians performing in both peaks and valleys
Really, nothing at Cedar Point has anything on this Guardians season. As I type this on Tuesday night, Cleveland finds themselves four games above .500. I know that seems pretty run-of-the-mill, but the Guardians have put together a campaign where they have played like a playoff team for ten days and then played some of the worst baseball in the league for two weeks. Then they’ll play great for a week and a half. Then look lost for an extended road-trip. They’ve done this over and over again.
That’s good context, because I- and the Guardians for that matter- are riding high again at the moment. I am writing this after the back-to-back masterful pitching performances of Slade Cecconi and Joey Cantillo against the Royals. The Guardians have looked fabulous in the first two games of a four game series here in early September. So far, they have outscored Kansas City, another team which they are competing with for the final American League Wildcard spot, 12-2 in the series. Simply put, things are looking up… again.
The Guardians went from looking like serious competitors when they took three of four from Detroit at Comerica in May, to looking like pretenders when they followed up that series by going 6-13 in their next 19 games.
They could have been left for dead after losing ten in a row in late June and early July. Or when a sweep at the hands of the Braves in August was followed up with a southwest road-trip that saw them go 1-6.
Instead, here we are. 74-70. A mere 2 games out of the final Wildcard spot.
The good vibes have me thinking. What is it really going to take to close the deal? After more than five months of play, the Guardians, and all MLB teams, are down to less than 20 games remaining in their seasons. The possibilities that were endless when spring was upon us are now becoming quite finite as autumn starts to forebode. We are at a point where we can trick ourselves into drawing conclusions from the remaining schedules. It is NFL season now. Some people love play the schedule game with their NFL team- trying to determine the wins and losses on the upcoming docket. Well, we have a similar number of MLB games left relative to an NFL schedule.
So, I did the same. Using a combination of won-loss records and run differentials both over the course of the entire season and the last forty games, I tried to make some informed determinations on the remaining schedules not just for the Guardians, but for the teams they are competing with for playoff opportunities. Detroit, Seattle, Texas and Kansas City were given consideration. For the sake of time, Tampa Bay didn’t make the cut.
Admittedly, while even having the best intentions and trying to use data to make these determinations, baseball is going to be baseball. The chances of me nailing all of these outcomes is probably pretty low, but I do think there were some things to be learned from the exercise regardless.
And I have to be honest, with all the good feelings I had, the process was a bit sobering. I love how the Guardians have played over the last week or so, but they have some challenges they are up against. I actually ended up running through all five teams schedules twice. In the first iteration, I just played it straight. I tried to make decisions without having the express goal of getting the Guardians into the playoffs. The results, at least from my perspective, weren’t ideal.
Guardians: 9-9 rest of the way, 83-79 overall
Tigers: 9-8 rest of the way, 92-70 overall
Mariners: 12-6 rest of the way, 88-74 overall
Rangers: 12-4 rest of the way, 87-75 overall
Royals: 6-11 rest of the way, 79-83 overall
By these calculations, Detroit retains their commanding lead on the AL Central, winning it by 9 games. Seattle ends up holding on to take the final Wildcard spot while Texas plays incredibly well down the stretch but just barely misses out.
There are a couple things to address here. A lot has been made of how poorly Seattle has played lately. The media has been talking about them as a team that could cough up their spot in the playoffs. To that point, they are 17-16 since August 1st, and have a positive run differential over that time frame. Not amazing, but also not exactly abysmal. They are currently playing a series with St. Louis (below .500 for the season, -30 since August 1), have four games against a lousy Angels team (-129 for the season) and get to play Kansas City and historically bad Colorado yet. The fact of that matter is that while they haven’t been the team that was challenging for the AL West division earlier in the season, they aren’t playing all that poorly and they have some potential easy Ws coming.
Texas is +22 in run differential since August 1st and are among the best teams in their last 10, going 7-3. They get the benefit of playing Miami, who has been putrid as of late (-62 since August 1, went from 53-55 to 66-78) and Minnesota, who has been the worst team in the AL Central since the All-Star Break. They also play Houston, who is actually -29 since August 1st and whose clubhouse is a bit of a mess right now with their pitchers deliberately crossing up their catchers.
But most notably, they play the Guardians in the very last series for both teams’ seasons. That series has the opportunity to decide post-season fates. If I am playing it straight, even with the strong showing this week, I can convince myself that the Rangers will get to 12 wins in their remaining games by winning series vs the Mets, Astros, Marlins, Twins, and yes, Guardians. Texas is playing better ball than Cleveland. Depending on how you measure things, Seattle is too.
The Guards though? To their favor, they get the White Sox and four against Minnesota (ironically, a rain out earlier in the season may work in the Guards’ favor as the Twins’ roster is much worse now than it was then). Unfortunately, they also have nine games to play against Detroit and Texas, and while trying to be perfectly (perhaps overly) objective, I couldn’t bring myself to have the Guardians win any of those series. I still fear this is a .500 team, or slightly above, and my results landed them at .500 the rest of the way, and slightly above for the season.
Like I said earlier though, baseball is going to be baseball. There is a world where things fall more so in the Guardians favor. This is a world where Seattle and Texas continue to get win-loss results closer to .500, like they have been getting. This is a world where Detroit realizes they aren’t playing for much the rest of the way. So, I took another swipe at these predictions and did so not trying to be overly unrealistic, but just with the idea in mind that things could go the Guardians way. Here is what I came up with.
Cleveland: 12-6 rest of the way, 87-75 overall
Detroit: 6-11 rest of the way, 89-73 overall
Seattle: 10-8 rest of the way, 86-76 overall
Texas: 8-8 rest of the way, 83-79 overall
Kansas City: 7-10 rest of the way, 80-82 overall
Cleveland comes up short in the division still, but is able to snatch the final Wildcard spot away by 2 games. I come to this conclusion without having Seattle or Texas below .500, but the Guardians need to pick up the pace. In this scenario, they need to split the remaining 2 games with Kansas City, then take every remaining series, including both against Detroit. Given the fact, I have given them a 2-game lead by the end of the season, they do have a little bit of margin for error on the “win every series” requirement, but it sure does make for a good and obvious goal. 12 wins also seems to be the benchmark. In both scenarios that I put together, 12 wins was the peak and 12 wins either got you in or onto the doorstep of the playoffs.
I’m about to play Captain Obvious here, but for the Guardians to make the playoffs, they are going to have to do something they haven’t been able to do for most of the season. They are going to have to play consistent, winning baseball for more than 2 weeks at a time. As much as the narratives about Seattle are what they are, the numbers suggest those narratives are overstated and the Mariners aren’t going to just hand it over. Even if they do, Texas has played well and has a schedule the rest of the way that they very well could thrash.
I’m not saying there’s no chance, but I am saying that if the Guardians are going to do this thing, it is going to take an impressive run to get it done. It may even come down to the final series of the season.
What I am saying is, stay tuned. This isn’t over, and it could be a lot of fun. Considering the last two nights, it already has been.
If you’re interested in my predictions, I am leaving a screenshot of them below. Forgive the lack of pretty formatting.
Pick-Up Sports Talk: Cleveland 