Baseball fans (and really fans of everything, in general) are always so eager to make a snap reaction about their team (or anything they’re enthusiastic about) when a season begins. Within a week, some fans surely know that their team is either World Series bound or headed for the dumpster. But we all know these reactions are rarely grounded.
To the contrary, sometimes cliches are true. Baseball really is a marathon. Even the sometimes prescribed waiting period of 40 games to start a season before judging a player or collective team’s talents isn’t nearly enough. You need look no further than the 2019 World Series Champion Washington Nationals, who found themselves with a 16-24 record at the 40-game mark, in order to find a counter example.
I personally find that you usually do have a general idea of what a team might be somewhere between the 40-game mark and Memorial Day, but I also think it is usually a good idea to check back every 40 games or so and re-assess. See what changed. If you are eager to know who will win a marathon then checking on who is doing well on mile 7 is a good idea. Checking back on mile 13 and mile 20 though just seems like an even better idea (not to mention the finish line).
Well, the Major League Baseball season just hit about mile 20 over the past week. The Guardians have played 123 games, or about 76% of their season. This feels like a great time to take some inventory and see where the Guardians stand as the stretch run appears on the horizon. With just under 40 games remaining, there is still plenty of time to speculate on both post-season glory or how the season could end in ineptitude and disappointment. In order to cut through the reckless speculation, let’s take a look at where we have been, in order to have the best idea of where things are going.
At an ultra high level, the Guardians find themselves at a record of 63-60, in 2nd place in the American League Central Division (though 8.5 games back of a very strong Detroit Tigers team) and 3.5 games out of the final Wildcard spot in MLB’s extended playoffs. I wouldn’t even think to suggest that they are in the catbird seat to challenge for a World Series based off these basic facts. However, 3.5 games out of the Wildcard is legitimately within striking distance. It is not absurd that the Guardians could make the playoffs. From there, baseball’s playoffs are famously noisy in terms of outcomes. The right team getting hot at the right time can, and many times does, end up winning the big trophy.
The point is that even though factors are stacked against them, we can squint our eyes and make an argument that this season is very much not over for the Guardians. But we need to deal in shades of gray. Just how likely is it for the Guardians to sustain the quality baseball they have played since the All-Star break and to parlay that into October success?
Let’s look at some specifics and try to get an idea, and in doing so, let’s start with the tough part.
The Offense/Position Players
It is important to remember that 2024’s significantly improved team that made it all the way to the American League Championship Series did so partially on the back of taking a lethargic offense and turning it into a league average one. The Guardians posted a weighted Runs Created+ of exactly 100 (for those that don’t recall, this is an all-inclusive hitting stat where 100 is average and higher numbers are better) in 2024, as it seemed they were starting to build an offensive core that would at least perform competently and could perhaps take another step or two forward in development.
Instead, Cleveland’s offense has taken a noticeable step backward in 2025. They rank 27th of worse in wRC+, On Base Percentage, Slugging Percentage and Barrel Rate. A team that has a recent reputation as a contact hitting team, they actually rank dead last in Batting Average. They also rank dead last in xwOBA, a statistic that measures quality of contact. None of this is good, obviously, and the poor results come despite yet another superb season from Guardians star third baseman Jose Ramirez.
Ramirez is slashing .291/.364/.554. While last season was a marquee season for him because of his near 40 homer-40-double-40 steal totals, he finds himself on pace for similar numbers this year even if not hitting those exact benchmarks. Ramirez is on pace to smack 30 doubles and 33 home runs while he is also on pace for a career high 47 steals. He’s done this while being banged up at times. He’s only missed a few individual games for the Guardians, but did sit out from the All-Star Game in order to heal up. By Wins Above Replacement, Ramirez is on pace for one of the best seasons of what is looking more and more like a Hall of Fame career. The Guardians offense faltering hasn’t been due to any step lost by their most important player.
Additionally, I want to acknowledge how DH/1B Kyle Manzardo has stepped up and emerged as a legitimate threat in the Guardians lineup. Manzardo came up last year as a highly-touted prospect but with little proof of Major League success. That uncertainty was amplified by the fact he struggled early in the 2024 season and was demoted before showing strides later in the year and having positive moments in the playoffs.
2025 has been an opportunity for Manzardo to really establish himself, and he has run with it. He is slashing .238/.323/.476 and is on pace for 19 doubles and 28 homers. If there is any criticism to levy on Manzardo, it is that his skills at first base could use work and he has missed opportunities to play more because of that poor glove as well as how he has been used as a platoon hitter. I will say that it does seem his inability to hit lefties is a little overstated, though his numbers against LHP are juiced by a few homers in a small sample. He is hitting just .182 vs LHP this year. This all suggests to me he isn’t entirely unplayable against lefties and should start some, but is neither an auto-start or auto-bench option against them.
With those positives being established, not much else has been very peachy for the Guards’ offense. Just to get it out of the way, back-up catcher Austin Hedges has been his usual self. He is slashing .139/.229/.243 with a horrid 35 wRC+. But this is who Hedges is at this point. This is who he has been for the last four seasons. This is actually his second-most productive season of these last four. The Guardians signed up for this offensive production when they put him on the roster. It comes with the territory of the defensive savvy and clubhouse vibes that he brings. All that said, he does have more than 130 plate appearance this year, and that isn’t nothing.
From there, it really has been a lost season for outfielder Lane Thomas. Thomas was acquired at the deadline last year from the Washington Nationals and after a rough start was a huge contributor in September and during the playoffs. Part of the reason the Guardians made the deal to acquire him was because he was under contract for 2025 as well and could contribute this season.
This season never got off the ground for Thomas. He was hit by a pitch on the wrist on Guardians’ Opening Day, tried to play through injury, but ultimately ended up on the Injured List. He’s made two more trips to the IL since due to plantar fasciitis that still plagues him now. In his time at the plate, there’s no way around it, Thomas has been awful. He’s has a .160/.246/.272 slash-line, translating to a 47 wRC+. He has 2 doubles and 4 home runs in 39 games played.
I want to emphasize, Thomas is not some buy-low candidate the Guardians picked up in hopes of reclaiming last year. He is a 7-year veteran who hit .250, averaged 20 home runs a season and a 106 OPS+ over the last 3 years before this year. He’s a good ball-player. This year has just been a year of horrific injury luck, to the point that I wonder what his free agency even looks like.
The other side of the coin with Thomas is that he had been slated to play most days in center-field for the Guards. Instead, the team has had to scramble to fill that hole, which has mostly been filled by Angel Martinez.
Martinez is a player that had a lot of buzz after a strong showing in 2024 Spring Training and about his first ten games in the Majors in that same regular season, but he hasn’t been able to show sustained success at the plate in the Majors. Martinez’s plate discipline is lacking. He doesn’t walk. His OBP is just .265, and when he does swing and connect, his quality of contact is the worst on the team by xwOBA. He has some value because of an ability to play several positions, but it is becoming clear he isn’t a prime option as an everyday center-fielder, which he has had to be for most of the season.
Another value decision the Guardians made was to cut ties with Tyler Freeman just before the start of the season, trading him to the Colorado Rockies in exchange for a young player with a history in the organization as well- Nolan Jones. Presumably, this trade was made because Jones had power potential in his profile as a hitter that Freeman did not. However, nothing has gone to plan. Jones’s bat hasn’t been powerful at all. If anything, it has been a wet noodle. His SLG (.297) is lower than his OBP (.309), neither of which are good. In 2023, when Jones looked like a future slugger for the Rockies, 42% of his hits were extra base hits. This season, just 27% of his hits are extra base hits.
To use another hitter for reference, Daniel Schneemann has been a middle of the road bat for the Guards this year (an accomplishment for a former 33rd round pick that wasn’t expected to make it this far, I’m not going to dwell on him long, but shout out to Schneemann and the season he is having, too). 39% of Schneemann’s hits have been of the extra base variety. So, 27% isn’t looking very good, particularly for a guy that was supposed to have power as one of his qualities.
To a lesser extent, shortstop Brayan Rocchio and catcher Bo Naylor have been disappointments as well. Rocchio’s issues are more segregated to the early part of the season when he really struggled. Overall, he hasn’t hit the ball with much authority. He is 2nd worst on the team in Isolated Power, behind Jones, and doesn’t walk enough. His season wRC+ is 74.
However, he was demoted in May and was re-called on July 1st. Since returning, he has been much better, hitting .285. Both of his home runs and 11 of his 14 doubles have come since returning. Rocchio showed flashes last post-season too, so it is hard to say if this new him will be the real him long-term, but he his at least showing strides.
As for the younger Naylor, hitting .184 doesn’t cut it unless you’re Kyle Schwarber. He does walk a lot- in 12.1% of his plate appearances- which keeps him from being entirely unplayable. Still, the organization has invested a lot in Naylor over these last two seasons and the return has been underwhelming.
There are some other players, of course- Schneemann, Steven Kwan and Carlos Santana, among others- but the above are the players that have stood out as particularly good or bad (unfortunately, most have been bad). Everyone else I would rate as some level of acceptable.
Before we move off of the position players, I do want to mention that the Guardians’ fielding has been a positive. Depending on your stat of choice, they are somewhere in the top 6 to top 10 in fielding. Kwan is having another standout year in the field, although interestingly, its his throwing arm that has really set him apart. Kwan leads baseball in outfield assists at last check.
Schneemann has also been excellent despite the fact he’s been asked to play five different positions. He has been an above average fielder at all of them, and has added great defensive versatility to being a solid hitter. And that would bring us to the other, more glamorous portion of run-prevention.
The Pitching: Starters
In a way, the Guardians have actually been pretty fortunate health-wise this season. Kolby Allard and Doug Nikhazy have combined for three spot-starts, outside of that, Cleveland has used 7 starting pitchers in total despite one of them getting suspended for an extended period.
The one other starter that departed the rotation was Ben Lively, who was looking to build on the success he had in reclaiming his career in 2024. Unfortunately, Lively’s season ended early as he needed Tommy John surgery. Results-wise, Lively had been Cleveland’s best starter early on. He posted a 3.22 ERA in his limited time. Some of the underlying metrics though still suggested he was a pitcher that needed a short leash and would struggle in his third time through a lineup. Regardless, he will not been seen again until late 2026 at the soonest.
Also in relation to underlying metrics, Lively’s replacement in the rotation was Slade Cecconi, who the Guardians received from Arizona in the Josh Naylor trade. Cecconi has looked decent, though inconsistent in his time on the big league club this year, a 4.50 ERA would suggest as much. What I find more concerning is that he has given up a lot of home runs while not striking many batters out at times. A team worst Home Runs per 9 Innings rate of 1.7 speaks to this. He has had as many starts where he has given up multiple home runs as he has where he has given up none (Tanner Bibee has been homer-prone as well, but has 10 no homer starts vs 6 multi-homer starts, for reference). Nearly half of Cecconi’s starts have also contained 3 or fewer strikeouts (21% of Bibee’s had 3 or fewer). Cecconi also has the worst quality of contact stats on the staff. I’m afraid some of the success he has had could be the product of smoke and mirrors.
Having referenced Bibee, I want to add the additional context that he is certainly having a down year himself. In his 3rd MLB season, a 4.54 ERA and 1.45 HR/9 are both worsts. He has allowed 4-homer and 3-homer games within this season as, showing serious susceptibility to the long-ball. It also seems like he isn’t getting hitters to chase this year in a way he has in the past, leading to more deep counts and labor on his part. I will say in his defense that his quality of contact stats suggest he is the 12th most unlucky pitcher in baseball this year. So some of his struggles are likely an aberration and the pitcher he has been the last two season is more in line with who he really is. Still, the results are what they are.
Lastly in terms of the rotation, I am high on what Joey Cantillo can be. Having started the season in the bullpen, I was surprised how inconsistent he was there. I thought his stuff would play really well in short spurts, but I think he has actually looked better as a starter overall. As a rookie, I’m encouraged by a 3.93 ERA overall and his FIP of 3.56 as a starter is a great indication that he can be successful in the rotation. If he can get his command right (one in every 8 hitters is a walk- not good) the Guardians could really be onto something.
So I don’t omit them, Gavin Williams remains a pitcher with great potential. We saw what he could do with his recent near no-hitter, but he needs to attack hitters more, avoiding walks and deep counts. Logan Allen has been significantly better than last season and is showing the potential to be a quality back end starter moving forward. Both of their seasons have been decent. I do have some concerns that Williams has been slightly lucky. The Guardians could also get back John Means before the season ends and I am curious what the former Orioles ace could be coming off of Tommy John surgery. The fact that they have the ability to keep him on the roster in 2026 could be a large positive.
Admittedly, the overall outlook for the starting rotation above has potential, but isn’t currently all that rosy. The overall results suggest this too. The Guardians starters this year have been middle-of-the-road in ERA (18th), but FIP and expected FIP suggest they have been slightly worse (both are 24th). Local media has been generally positive about the starting rotation lately. The truth is they are better than last year’s rotation that was lucky to pitch into the 5th inning at times, but overall they haven’t been especially impressive. They’ve looked more impressive just because of how wobbly they were last season. That leaves us with the undeniable strength of the team.
The Pitching: Bullpen
While last season’s bullpen was otherworldly- leading baseball in most statistical categories- this year’s has been great, but not to the same extent. The Guardians are 4th in bullpen ERA and 3rd in bullpen FIP, which shows they are still among the cream of the crop even if they haven’t reached last year’s level,
While most of last year’s usual suspects returned this year and performed well, Tim Herrin is the one outlier. As the lefty in last year’s Big Four, Herrin has really struggled with command this season, walking a startling 1 in 6 batters he faces and spending a good portion of the summer in the minors.
However, the emergence of fellow lefty Erik Sabrowski has softened the blow. Sabrowski came up big down the stretch last season and seemed poised to continue to provide depth to this year’s bullpen before elbow inflammation made him miss most of the first half of the season. He has been exemplary since being called up and has really provided a shot in the arm for a bullpen that lost significant depth with Herrin’s struggles and Emmanuel Clase’s suspension. Sabrowski has posted a paltry 1.06 ERA this season and is striking out hitters at a higher clip than Cade Smith.
Speaking of Smith, he continues to reign as one of the dominant arms in all of baseball. Smith has allowed just 2 home runs in 55 innings pitched. Nearly one in every three hitters he faces is a hitter that he punches out. Hitters are hitting just .167 on his fastball, one of the best in the game, and he is on pace to be worst more than 2 WAR as a reliever.
One other reliever I specifically wanted to call out is Matt Festa. Festa has been a bit of a whipping boy on the internet this season, and admittedly, his results on the mound haven’t been great. He has posted a 4.99 ERA and he struggles to put hitters away at times as he isn’t much of a strikeout pitcher. Still, he’s posted a FIP of just 3.27, which is a better number than from the well-trusted setup man Hunter Gaddis. There is information here to suggest that Festa has gotten unlucky. Couple that with a willingness to pitch in a number of situations and even sometimes on three days straight, and in some way, I think Festa is a bit of an unsung hero of this bullpen.
And the flexibility that Festa has shown isn’t really just limited to him. I love how manager Steven Vogt has handled the bullpen after Clase’s disappearance. There has been a “next man up” mentality across the board and while Vogt has tried to stick to some defined roles, guys have been stretched to pitch in odd situations at times when things don’t go according to plan. The Guards pen has responded by collectively pitching to a 2.93 ERA since the suspension. Somehow, they have gotten stronger despite the adversity and while losing one of their best arms.
So, What Does This All Mean?
All of this being said, let’s go back to the beginning. The Guardians find themselves above .500 more than 120 games into the season and within 3.5 games of a Wildcard spot. October baseball isn’t out of the question and once a team gets into the tournament, anything can happen. But how likely is it?
Honestly, I don’t think very. While the Guardians’ record suggests that their positioning is decent; it also suggests something else that is clear: this Guardians team is a step backward from where they were last year. In some cases, like in the case of Lane Thomas, the Nolan Jones trade or the unfortunate news surrounding Emmanuel Clase, Luis Ortiz and the Gold Glove second baseman that was traded in order to get Ortiz, this season is an entirely lost season.
That’s not to say this Guardians team is terrible. I don’t believe that by any means. However, when you consider how the offense has suffered this season, the starting rotation has marginally improved and the bullpen is still a strength but not the superpower it was last season, it is easy to see where the slip ups have come from. This team didn’t improve in meaningful ways to get them to the next level.
Further, when considering their negative run differential and the fact they are just 27-37 against teams above .500, I have to say this isn’t a bad team, but it is not a particularly good one.
What will the final stretch of the season bring? There is still some small chance the Guards could sneak into the post-season. I think that would be a great goal for them, but I don’t expect a deep run. At the same time, this team very well could sputter down the stretch and end the season below .500.
I think the most likely answer is somewhere in the middle. This is a .500 ball-club or slightly above that. Cleveland might make September interesting, but as much as I want to see more than that from them, I don’t see the chance for it before 2026.
Pick-Up Sports Talk: Cleveland 